Author name cluster

Lesly Miculicich

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5 papers

2 author rows

TMLR Journal 2026 Journal Article

Synapse: Adaptive Arbitration of Complementary Expertise in Time Series Foundational Models

Sarkar Snigdha Sarathi Das
Palash Goyal
Mihir Parmar
Yiwen Song
Long Le
Lesly Miculicich
Jinsung Yoon
Rui Zhang

Pre-trained Time Series Foundational Models (TSFMs) represent a significant advance, capable of forecasting diverse time series with complex characteristics, including varied seasonalities, trends, and long-range dependencies. Despite their primary goal of universal time series forecasting, their efficacy is far from uniform; divergent training protocols and data sources cause individual TSFMs to exhibit highly variable performance across different forecasting tasks, domains, and horizons. Leveraging this complementary expertise by arbitrating existing TSFM outputs presents a compelling strategy, yet this remains a largely unexplored area of research. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of how different TSFMs exhibit specialized performance profiles across various forecasting settings, and how we can effectively leverage this behavior in arbitration between different time series models. We specifically analyze how factors such as model selection and forecast horizon distribution can influence the efficacy of arbitration strategies. Based on this analysis, we propose Synapse, a novel arbitration framework for TSFMs. Synapse is designed to dynamically leverage a pool of TSFMs, assign and adjust predictive weights based on their relative, context-dependent performance, and construct a robust forecast distribution by adaptively sampling from the output quantiles of constituent models. Experimental results demonstrate that Synapse consistently outperforms other popular ensembling techniques as well as individual TSFMs, demonstrating Synapse's efficacy in time series forecasting.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Model Swarms: Collaborative Search to Adapt LLM Experts via Swarm Intelligence

Shangbin Feng
Zifeng Wang 0002
Yike Wang 0002
Sayna Ebrahimi
Hamid Palangi
Lesly Miculicich
Achin Kulshrestha
Nathalie Rauschmayr

We propose Model Swarms, a collaborative search algorithm to adapt LLMs via swarm intelligence, the collective behavior guiding individual systems. Specifically, Model Swarms starts with a pool of LLM experts and a utility function. Guided by the best-found checkpoints across models, diverse LLM experts collaboratively move in the weight space and optimize a utility function representing model adaptation objectives. Compared to existing model composition approaches, Model Swarms offers tuning-free model adaptation, works in low-data regimes with as few as 200 examples, and does not require assumptions about specific experts in the swarm or how they should be composed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Model Swarms could flexibly adapt LLM experts to a single task, multi-task domains, reward models, as well as diverse human interests, improving over 12 model composition baselines by up to 21. 0% across tasks and contexts. Further analysis reveals that LLM experts discover previously unseen capabilities in initial checkpoints and that Model Swarms enable the weak-to-strong transition of experts through the collaborative search process.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Chain-of-Table: Evolving Tables in the Reasoning Chain for Table Understanding

Zilong Wang 0002
Hao Zhang
Chun-Liang Li
Julian Martin Eisenschlos
Vincent Perot
Zifeng Wang 0002
Lesly Miculicich
Yasuhisa Fujii

Table-based reasoning with large language models (LLMs) is a promising direction to tackle many table understanding tasks, such as table-based question answering and fact verification. Compared with generic reasoning, table-based reasoning requires the extraction of underlying semantics from both free-form questions and semi-structured tabular data. Chain-of-Thought and its similar approaches incorporate the reasoning chain in the form of textual context, but it is still an open question how to effectively leverage tabular data in the reasoning chain. We propose the Chain-of-Table framework, where tabular data is explicitly used in the reasoning chain as a proxy for intermediate thoughts. Specifically, we guide LLMs using in-context learning to iteratively generate operations and update the table to represent a tabular reasoning chain. LLMs can therefore dynamically plan the next operation based on the results of the previous ones. This continuous evolution of the table forms a chain, showing the reasoning process for a given tabular problem. The chain carries structured information of the intermediate results, enabling more accurate and reliable predictions. Chain-of-Table achieves new state-of-the-art performance on WikiTQ, FeTaQA, and TabFact benchmarks across multiple LLM choices.

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TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

SQL-PaLM: Improved large language model adaptation for Text-to-SQL

Ruoxi Sun
Sercan O Arik
Alexandre Muzio
Lesly Miculicich
Satya Kesav Gundabathula
Pengcheng Yin
Hanjun Dai
Hootan Nakhost

Text-to-SQL, the process of translating natural language into Structured Query Language (SQL), represents a transformative application of large language models (LLMs), potentially revolutionizing how humans interact with data. This paper introduces the SQL-PaLM framework, a comprehensive solution for understanding and enhancing Text-to-SQL using LLMs, using in the learning regimes of few-shot prompting and instruction fine-tuning. With few-shot prompting, we explore the effectiveness of consistency decoding with execution-based error filtering. With instruction fine-tuning, we delve deep in understanding the critical paradigms that influence the performance of tuned LLMs. In particular, we investigate how performance can be improved through expanded training data coverage and diversity, synthetic data augmentation, and integrating query-specific database content. We propose a test-time selection method to further refine accuracy by integrating SQL outputs from multiple paradigms with execution feedback as guidance. Additionally, we tackle the practical challenge of navigating intricate databases with a significant number of tables and columns, proposing efficient techniques for accurately selecting relevant database elements to enhance Text-to-SQL performance. Our holistic approach yields substantial advancements in Text-to-SQL, as demonstrated on two key public benchmarks, Spider and BIRD. Through comprehensive ablations and error analyses, we shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of our framework, offering valuable insights into Text-to-SQL's future work.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

TableRAG: Million-Token Table Understanding with Language Models

Si-An Chen
Lesly Miculicich
Julian M. Eisenschlos
Zifeng Wang
Zilong Wang
Yanfei Chen
Yasuhisa Fujii
Hsuan-Tien Lin

Recent advancements in language models (LMs) have notably enhanced their ability to reason with tabular data, primarily through program-aided mechanisms that manipulate and analyze tables. However, these methods often require the entire table as input, leading to scalability challenges due to the positional bias or context length constraints. In response to these challenges, we introduce TableRAG, a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework specifically designed for LM-based table understanding. TableRAG leverages query expansion combined with schema and cell retrieval to pinpoint crucial information before providing it to the LMs. This enables more efficient data encoding and precise retrieval, significantly reducing prompt lengths and mitigating information loss. We have developed two new million-token benchmarks from the Arcade and BIRD-SQL datasets to thoroughly evaluate TableRAG's effectiveness at scale. Our results demonstrate that TableRAG's retrieval design achieves the highest retrieval quality, leading to the new state-of-the-art performance on large-scale table understanding.

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