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Leon Li

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Architectural and Inferential Inductive Biases for Exchangeable Sequence Modeling

Daksh Mittal
Leon Li
Thomson Yen
C. Guetta
Hongseok Namkoong

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful framework for modeling exchangeable sequences---i. i. d. observations when conditioned on some latent factor---enabling direct modeling of uncertainty from missing data (rather than a latent). Motivated by the critical role posterior inference plays as a subroutine in decision-making (e. g. , active learning, bandits), we study the inferential and architectural inductive biases that are most effective for exchangeable sequence modeling. For the inference stage, we highlight a fundamental limitation of the prevalent single-step generation approach: its inability to distinguish between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Instead, a long line of works in Bayesian statistics advocates for multi-step autoregressive generation; we demonstrate this "correct approach" enables superior uncertainty quantification that translates into better performance on downstream decision-making tasks. This naturally leads to the next question: which architectures are best suited for multi-step inference? We identify a subtle yet important gap between recently proposed Transformer architectures for exchangeable sequences (Müller et al. , 2022; Nguyen & Grover, 2022; Ye & Namkoong, 2024), and prove that they in fact cannot guarantee exchangeability despite introducing significant computational overhead. Through empirical evaluation, we find that these custom architectures can significantly underperform compared to standard causal masking, highlighting the need for new architectural innovations in Transformer-based modeling of exchangeable sequences.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

LLM Generated Persona is a Promise with a Catch

Leon Li
Haozhe Chen
Hongseok Namkoong
Tianyi Peng

The use of large language models (LLMs) to simulate human behavior has gained significant attention, particularly through personas that approximate individual characteristics. Persona-based simulations hold promise for transforming disciplines that rely on population-level feedback, including social science, economic analysis, marketing research, and business operations. Traditional methods to collect realistic persona data face significant challenges. They are prohibitively expensive and logistically challenging due to privacy constraints, and often fail to capture multi-dimensional attributes, particularly subjective qualities. Consequently, synthetic persona generation with LLMs offers a scalable, cost-effective alternative. However, current approaches rely on ad hoc and heuristic generation techniques that do not guarantee methodological rigor or simulation precision, resulting in systematic biases in downstream tasks. Through extensive large-scale experiments including presidential election forecasts and general opinion surveys of the U. S. population, we reveal that these biases can lead to significant deviations from real-world outcomes. Based on the experimental results, this position paper argues that a rigorous and systematic science of persona generation is needed to ensure the reliability of LLM-driven simulations of human behavior. We call for not only methodological innovations and empirical foundations but also interdisciplinary organizational and institutional support for the development of this field. To support further research and development in this area, we have open-sourced approximately one million generated personas, available for public access and analysis.

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