EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A Bayesian attention-based Transformer with epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification for trustworthy remaining useful life prediction
- Lei Wang
- Zaigang Chen
- Zhiwen Liu
Transformers have emerged as a state-of-the-art method for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction due to their powerful self-attention mechanisms. However, traditional Transformers fail to consider prediction uncertainties, often resulting in overconfident results. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a Bayesian attention-based Transformer (BATformer) for uncertainty-aware and trustworthy RUL prediction. BATformer explicitly models two fundamental uncertainties: (1) Epistemic uncertainty, accounting for model uncertainty; (2) Aleatoric uncertainty, representing data uncertainty. A Bayesian attention mechanism, where attention weights are treated as latent random variables rather than deterministic values, and a quantile regressor are incorporated into a dual-uncertainty quantification framework to capture the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties respectively. This dual-uncertainty quantification framework not only facilitates reliable uncertainty quantification but also enhances prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and superiority of BATformer is validated by experiments on a turbofan engine dataset and a tool wear dataset. The results show that BATformer improves RUL prediction performance on the turbofan engine dataset by 5. 37 % and 15. 70 %, and tool wear dataset by 8. 29 % and 15. 75 %, in terms of root mean square error and score function, respectively.