EAAI Journal 2025 Journal Article
An adaptive weighted stacking ensemble framework for photovoltaic power generation forecasting with joint optimization of features and hyperparameters
- Shaolong Zheng
- Danyun Li
- Yidong Li
- Zihan Zeng
- Yuxuan Zhou
- Changsi Li
- Kun Song
Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial for the efficient operation of power systems. However, the limited availability of historical data often hinders prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, an adaptive weighted stacking (AWS) ensemble framework is proposed, combining artificial intelligence ensemble models with joint optimization (JO) of features and hyperparameters to enhance prediction performance in small sample (SS) scenarios. In the framework, a base learner selection strategy based on kernel hierarchical clustering (KHC) is used to balance model performance and diversity. Multi-initiated parallel bayesian optimization with early stopping (MI-PBOES) algorithm is employed for the JO of features and hyperparameters to obtain the optimal subset of features and the corresponding parameter configuration. Additionally, an AWS strategy is employed to dynamically adjust ensemble weights, further improving accuracy and robustness. To evaluate its effectiveness in engineering applications, experiments were conducted using data from the desert knowledge australia (DKA) solar centre. The results indicate that the proposed framework reduces root mean square error (RMSE) by 51. 84% and mean absolute error (MAE) by 56. 42% compared to traditional machine learning models, while RMSE decreases by 129. 89% and MAE by 124. 82% compared to deep learning models. Under noisy conditions, RMSE and MAE are reduced by 39. 46% and 37. 37%, respectively, showing remarkable prediction performance and robustness.