EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A heterogeneous multi-graph spatio-temporal network for runoff forecasting
- Xuerui Zhou
- Baowei Yan
- Jun Zhang
- Jianbo Chang
- Dongxu Yang
Runoff forecasting plays a vital role in water resources management and flood mitigation. However, accurately predicting runoff remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dependencies across river basins and the heterogeneous interactions between meteorological drivers and hydrological responses. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel artificial intelligence approach: a heterogeneous multi-graph spatio-temporal network (HMGSTN). Instead of blending all observations into a single structure, the proposed framework constructs distinct meteorological and hydrological subgraphs to represent driving and response processes. A cross-graph gating mechanism is introduced to dynamically model inter-domain interactions, providing correlation-informed (non-causal) structural alignment between rainfall and runoff beyond basic feature concatenation. In addition, an adaptive dynamic adjacency module captures time-varying upstream–downstream dependencies during extreme events, while frequency-domain and residual designs improve stability for multi-step forecasting. A comprehensive case study in the Yalong River Basin demonstrates consistent accuracy gains over strong benchmark models across short and long lead times, with improved peak representation and reduced bias in low-flow periods. Moving beyond deterministic point forecasting, the framework integrates Monte Carlo Dropout with a leakage-free, post-hoc coverage calibration procedure to quantify predictive uncertainty, producing calibrated, risk-aware prediction intervals that expand with forecasting horizon and better accommodate extreme peak flows. Furthermore, additional evaluation on the public Large-sample Hydrology and Meteorology dataset for Central Europe (LamaH-CE) benchmark provides supportive evidence that the proposed architecture can transfer to a different hydro-climatic setting and temporal configuration. Overall, the proposed architecture provides an accurate, stable, and uncertainty-aware correlation-informed deep learning solution for operational runoff prediction.