EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
Interpretable prediction and simplified calculation of blast load on structure surface based on machine learning and theoretical model
- Dingkun Yang
- Jian Yang
- Jun Shi
Accurately calculating blast loads on structure surfaces is critical for evaluating the safety performance of structures in explosive environments. However, due to the complexity and variability of explosion phenomena, traditional calculation methods often fail to balance accuracy and efficiency satisfactorily. This study proposes a method integrating machine learning (ML) with theoretical models to enable interpretable predictions of blast loads on structure surfaces. The comprehensive working condition dataset is constructed using experimental data and validated numerical simulations. Multiple ML models are trained, and the optimal model is selected based on its predictive performance. A detailed interpretive analysis is conducted to better understand the ML model's prediction mechanism. Based on this interpretive analysis, combined with the theoretical principles of explosions, a simplified ML-based calculation formula is derived. Compared with traditional methods, the ML-based formula achieves a relative error below 12 %, compared to 24. 2 % for Henrych's formula under near-field conditions. The artificial neural network (ANN) model performs excellently in predicting blast loads on structure surfaces, achieving a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) exceeding 0. 96 in Monte Carlo (MC) simulation verification. The ML-based formula not only simplifies the calculation process but also improves the estimation accuracy of blast loads under near-field conditions, offering a more reliable and efficient approach for assessing the safety of structures in explosive environments.