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Johan Ugander

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13 papers

2 author rows

AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Exclusion Zones of Instant Runoff Voting

Kiran Tomlinson
Johan Ugander
Jon Kleinberg

Recent research on instant runoff voting (IRV) shows that it exhibits a striking property over unimodal one-dimensional preferences: there is an exclusion zone around the median voter such that the winner must come from the exclusion zone, unless no such candidate exists. Thus, IRV cannot elect an extreme candidate in this setting as long as a sufficiently moderate candidate runs. In this work, we examine the mathematical structure of exclusion zones as a broad phenomenon in more general preference spaces. We prove that with voters uniformly distributed over any d-dimensional hyperrectangle (for d > 1), IRV has no such exclusion zone. However, we also show that IRV exclusion zones are not solely a one-dimensional phenomenon. For irregular higher-dimensional preference spaces with fewer symmetries than hyperrectangles, IRV can have nontrivial exclusion zones. As a further exploration, we study IRV exclusion zones with graph-based preferences, where nodes represent voters who prefer candidates closer to them in the graph. Here, we show that IRV exclusion zones present a surprising computational challenge: even checking whether a given set of positions is an IRV exclusion zone is NP-hard. We develop an efficient randomized approximation algorithm for checking and finding exclusion zones in graphs. Finally, we report on computational experiments with exclusion zones: (i) performing an exhaustive computer search of small graphs and trees, we find nontrivial IRV exclusion zones in most small graphs; and (ii) applying our approximation algorithm to a collection of larger real-world school friendship networks, we find that about 60% of these networks have probable nontrivial IRV exclusion zones. While our focus is on IRV, the properties of exclusion zones we establish provide new methods for analyzing voting systems in metric spaces more generally.

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AAAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Replicating Electoral Success

Kiran Tomlinson
Tanvi Namjoshi
Johan Ugander
Jon Kleinberg

A core tension in the study of plurality elections is the clash between the classic Hotelling-Downs model, which predicts that two office-seeking candidates should cater to the median voter, and the empirical observation that democracies often have two major parties with divergent policies. Motivated in part by this tension, we introduce a dynamic model of candidate positioning based on a simple bounded rationality heuristic: candidates imitate the policy of previous winners. The resulting model is closely connected to evolutionary replicator dynamics. For uniformly-distributed voters, we prove in our model that with k = 2, 3, or 4 candidates per election, any symmetric candidate distribution converges over time to the center. With k ≥ 5 candidates per election, however, we prove that the candidate distribution does not converge to the center and provide an even stronger non-convergence result in a special case with no extreme candidates. Our conclusions are qualitatively unchanged if a small fraction of candidates are not winner-copiers and are instead positioned uniformly at random in each election. Beyond our theoretical analysis, we illustrate our results in extensive simulations; for five or more candidates, we find a tendency towards the emergence of two clusters, a mechanism suggestive of Duverger's Law, the empirical finding that plurality leads to two-party systems. Our simulations also explore several variations of the model, where we find the same general pattern: convergence to the center with four or fewer candidates, but not with five or more. Finally, we discuss the relationship between our replicator dynamics model and prior work on strategic equilibria of candidate positioning games.

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JMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

A tensor factorization model of multilayer network interdependence

Izabel Aguiar
Dane Taylor
Johan Ugander

Multilayer networks describe the rich ways in which nodes are related by accounting for different relationships in separate layers. These multiple relationships are naturally represented by an adjacency tensor. In this work we study the use of the nonnegative Tucker decomposition (NNTuck) of such tensors under a KL loss as an expressive factor model that naturally generalizes existing stochastic block models of multilayer networks. Quantifying interdependencies between layers can identify redundancies in the structure of a network, indicate relationships between disparate layers, and potentially inform survey instruments for collecting social network data. We propose definitions of layer independence, dependence, and redundancy based on likelihood ratio tests between nested nonnegative Tucker decompositions. Using both synthetic and real-world data, we evaluate the use and interpretation of the NNTuck as a model of multilayer networks. Algorithmically, we show that using expectation maximization (EM) to maximize the log-likelihood under the NNTuck is step-by-step equivalent to tensorial multiplicative updates for the NNTuck under a KL loss, extending a previously known equivalence from nonnegative matrices to nonnegative tensors. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2024. ( edit, beta )

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Inferring Dynamic Networks from Marginals with Iterative Proportional Fitting

Serina Chang
Frederic Koehler
Zhaonan Qu
Jure Leskovec
Johan Ugander

A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i. e. , row and column sums). Prior approaches to this problem have repurposed the classic iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure, also known as Sinkhorn’s algorithm, with promising empirical results. However, the statistical foundation for using IPF has not been well understood: under what settings does IPF provide principled estimation of a dynamic network from its marginals, and how well does it estimate the network? In this work, we establish such a setting, by identifying a generative network model whose maximum likelihood estimates are recovered by IPF. Our model both reveals implicit assumptions on the use of IPF in such settings and enables new analyses, such as structure-dependent error bounds on IPF’s parameter estimates. When IPF fails to converge on sparse network data, we introduce a principled algorithm that guarantees IPF converges under minimal changes to the network structure. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic and real-world data, which demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Off-policy Evaluation Beyond Overlap: Sharp Partial Identification Under Smoothness

Samir Khan
Martin Saveski
Johan Ugander

Off-policy evaluation, and the complementary problem of policy learning, use historical data collected under a logging policy to estimate and/or optimize the value of a target policy. Methods for these tasks typically assume overlap between the target and logging policy, enabling solutions based on importance weighting and/or imputation. Absent such an overlap assumption, existing work either relies on a well-specified model or optimizes needlessly conservative bounds. In this work, we develop methods for no-overlap policy evaluation without a well-specified model, relying instead on non-parametric assumptions on the expected outcome, with a particular focus on Lipschitz smoothness. Under such assumptions we are able to provide sharp bounds on the off-policy value, along with optimal estimators of those bounds. For Lipschitz smoothness, we construct a pair of linear programs that upper and lower bound the contribution of the no-overlap region to the off-policy value. We show that these programs have a concise closed form solution, and that their solutions converge under the Lipschitz assumption to the sharp partial identification bounds at a minimax optimal rate, up to log factors. We demonstrate the effectiveness our methods on two semi-synthetic examples, and obtain informative and valid bounds that are tighter than those possible without smoothness assumptions.

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AAAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

The Moderating Effect of Instant Runoff Voting

Kiran Tomlinson
Johan Ugander
Jon Kleinberg

Instant runoff voting (IRV) has recently gained popularity as an alternative to plurality voting for political elections, with advocates claiming a range of advantages, including that it produces more moderate winners than plurality and could thus help address polarization. However, there is little theoretical backing for this claim, with existing evidence focused on case studies and simulations. In this work, we prove that IRV has a moderating effect relative to plurality voting in a precise sense, developed in a 1-dimensional Euclidean model of voter preferences. We develop a theory of exclusion zones, derived from properties of the voter distribution, which serve to show how moderate and extreme candidates interact during IRV vote tabulation. The theory allows us to prove that if voters are symmetrically distributed and not too concentrated at the extremes, IRV cannot elect an extreme candidate over a moderate. In contrast, we show plurality can and validate our results computationally. Our methods provide new frameworks for the analysis of voting systems, deriving exact winner distributions geometrically and establishing a connection between plurality voting and stick-breaking processes.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Ballot Length in Instant Runoff Voting

Kiran Tomlinson
Johan Ugander
Jon Kleinberg

Instant runoff voting (IRV) is an increasingly-popular alternative to traditional plurality voting in which voters submit rankings over the candidates rather than single votes. In practice, elections using IRV often restrict the ballot length, the number of candidates a voter is allowed to rank on their ballot. We theoretically and empirically analyze how ballot length can influence the outcome of an election, given fixed voter preferences. We show that there exist preference profiles over k candidates such that up to k-1 different candidates win at different ballot lengths. We derive exact lower bounds on the number of voters required for such profiles and provide a construction matching the lower bound for unrestricted voter preferences. Additionally, we characterize which sequences of winners are possible over ballot lengths and provide explicit profile constructions achieving any feasible winner sequence. We also examine how classic preference restrictions influence our results—for instance, single-peakedness makes k-1 different winners impossible but still allows at least Ω(√k). Finally, we analyze a collection of 168 real-world elections, where we truncate rankings to simulate shorter ballots. We find that shorter ballots could have changed the outcome in one quarter of these elections. Our results highlight ballot length as a consequential degree of freedom in the design of IRV elections.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Counterfactual Evaluation of Peer-Review Assignment Policies

Martin Saveski
Steven Jecmen
Nihar Shah
Johan Ugander

Peer review assignment algorithms aim to match research papers to suitable expert reviewers, working to maximize the quality of the resulting reviews. A key challenge in designing effective assignment policies is evaluating how changes to the assignment algorithm map to changes in review quality. In this work, we leverage recently proposed policies that introduce randomness in peer-review assignment—in order to mitigate fraud—as a valuable opportunity to evaluate counterfactual assignment policies. Specifically, we exploit how such randomized assignments provide a positive probability of observing the reviews of many assignment policies of interest. To address challenges in applying standard off-policy evaluation methods, such as violations of positivity, we introduce novel methods for partial identification based on monotonicity and Lipschitz smoothness assumptions for the mapping between reviewer-paper covariates and outcomes. We apply our methods to peer-review data from two computer science venues: the TPDP'21 workshop (95 papers and 35 reviewers) and the AAAI'22 conference (8, 450 papers and 3, 145 reviewers). We consider estimates of (i) the effect on review quality when changing weights in the assignment algorithm, e. g. , weighting reviewers' bids vs. textual similarity (between the review's past papers and the submission), and (ii) the "cost of randomization", capturing the difference in expected quality between the perturbed and unperturbed optimal match. We find that placing higher weight on text similarity results in higher review quality and that introducing randomization in the reviewer-paper assignment only marginally reduces the review quality. Our methods for partial identification may be of independent interest, while our off-policy approach can likely find use in evaluating a broad class of algorithmic matching systems.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Estimating Geographic Spillover Effects of COVID-19 Policies from Large-Scale Mobility Networks

Serina Chang
Damir Vrabac
Jure Leskovec
Johan Ugander

Many policies in the US are determined locally, e.g., at the county-level. Local policy regimes provide flexibility between regions, but may become less effective in the presence of geographic spillovers, where populations circumvent local restrictions by traveling to less restricted regions nearby. Due to the endogenous nature of policymaking, there have been few opportunities to reliably estimate causal spillover effects or evaluate their impact on local policies. In this work, we identify a novel setting and develop a suitable methodology that allow us to make unconfounded estimates of spillover effects of local policies. Focusing on California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, we leverage how county-level mobility restrictions were deterministically set by public COVID-19 severity statistics, enabling a regression discontinuity design framework to estimate spillovers between counties. We estimate these effects using a mobility network with billions of timestamped edges and find significant spillover movement, with larger effects in retail, eating places, and gyms. Contrasting local and global policy regimes, our spillover estimates suggest that county-level restrictions are only 54% as effective as statewide restrictions at reducing mobility. However, an intermediate strategy of macro-county restrictions---where we optimize county partitions by solving a minimum k-cut problem on a graph weighted by our spillover estimates---can recover over 90% of statewide mobility reductions, while maintaining substantial flexibility between counties.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Learning Rich Rankings

Arjun Seshadri
Stephen Ragain
Johan Ugander

Although the foundations of ranking are well established, the ranking literature has primarily been focused on simple, unimodal models, e. g. the Mallows and Plackett-Luce models, that define distributions centered around a single total ordering. Explicit mixture models have provided some tools for modelling multimodal ranking data, though learning such models from data is often difficult. In this work, we contribute a contextual repeated selection (CRS) model that leverages recent advances in choice modeling to bring a natural multimodality and richness to the rankings space. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees for maximum likelihood estimation under the model through structure-dependent tail risk and expected risk bounds. As a by-product, we also furnish the first tight bounds on the expected risk of maximum likelihood estimators for the multinomial logit (MNL) choice model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) ranking model, as well as the first tail risk bound on the PL ranking model. The CRS model significantly outperforms existing methods for modeling real world ranking data in a variety of settings, from racing to rank choice voting.

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ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Discovering Context Effects from Raw Choice Data

Arjun Seshadri
Alex Peysakhovich
Johan Ugander

Many applications in preference learning assume that decisions come from the maximization of a stable utility function. Yet a large experimental literature shows that individual choices and judgements can be affected by “irrelevant” aspects of the context in which they are made. An important class of such contexts is the composition of the choice set. In this work, our goal is to discover such choice set effects from raw choice data. We introduce an extension of the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, called the context dependent random utility model (CDM), which allows for a particular class of choice set effects. We show that the CDM can be thought of as a second-order approximation to a general choice system, can be inferred optimally using maximum likelihood and, importantly, is easily interpretable. We apply the CDM to both real and simulated choice data to perform principled exploratory analyses for the presence of choice set effects.

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NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

Stephen Ragain
Johan Ugander

As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale, particularly in online domains, there is an increasing need for choice models flexible enough to handle data that violate traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, or Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume these traditional axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansion, which can be viewed as a weaker version of Luce's axiom. We show that the PCMC model significantly outperforms the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model in prediction tasks on two empirical data sets known to exhibit violations of Luce's axiom. Our analysis also synthesizes several recent observations connecting the Multinomial Logit model and Markov chains; the PCMC model retains the Multinomial Logit model as a special case.

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NeurIPS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

A concave regularization technique for sparse mixture models

Martin Larsson
Johan Ugander

Latent variable mixture models are a powerful tool for exploring the structure in large datasets. A common challenge for interpreting such models is a desire to impose sparsity, the natural assumption that each data point only contains few latent features. Since mixture distributions are constrained in their L1 norm, typical sparsity techniques based on L1 regularization become toothless, and concave regularization becomes necessary. Unfortunately concave regularization typically results in EM algorithms that must perform problematic non-concave M-step maximizations. In this work, we introduce a technique for circumventing this difficulty, using the so-called Mountain Pass Theorem to provide easily verifiable conditions under which the M-step is well-behaved despite the lacking concavity. We also develop a correspondence between logarithmic regularization and what we term the pseudo-Dirichlet distribution, a generalization of the ordinary Dirichlet distribution well-suited for inducing sparsity. We demonstrate our approach on a text corpus, inferring a sparse topic mixture model for 2, 406 weblogs.

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