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Jinlin Lai

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3 papers

2 author rows

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Active Measurement: Efficient Estimation at Scale

Max Hamilton
Jinlin Lai
Wenlong Zhao
Subhransu Maji
Daniel Sheldon

AI has the potential to transform scientific discovery by analyzing vast datasets with little human effort. However, current workflows often do not provide the accuracy or statistical guarantees that are needed. We introduce \emph{active measurement}, a human-in-the-loop AI framework for scientific measurement. An AI model is used to predict measurements for individual units, which are then sampled for human labeling using importance sampling. With each new set of human labels, the AI model is improved and an unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the total measurement is refined. Active measurement can provide precise estimates even with an imperfect AI model, and requires little human effort when the AI model is very accurate. We derive novel estimators, weighting schemes, and confidence intervals, and show that active measurement reduces estimation error compared to alternatives in several measurement tasks.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Inference of Marginalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models

Jinlin Lai
Justin Domke
Daniel Sheldon

Bayesian reasoning in linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is challenging and often requires advanced sampling techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A common approach is to write the model in a probabilistic programming language and then sample via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). However, there are many ways a user can transform a model that make inference more or less efficient. In particular, marginalizing some variables can greatly improve inference but is difficult for users to do manually. We develop an algorithm to easily marginalize random effects in LMMs. A naive approach introduces cubic time operations within an inference algorithm like HMC, but we reduce the running time to linear using fast linear algebra techniques. We show that marginalization is always beneficial when applicable and highlight improvements in various models, especially ones from cognitive sciences.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Automatically marginalized MCMC in probabilistic programming

Jinlin Lai
Javier Burroni
Hui Guan 0001
Daniel Sheldon

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

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