EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
An explainable artificial intelligence-Based approach for intelligent prediction and decision mechanism analysis of tunnel boring machine excavation performance
- Jiajun Liang
- Kangping Gao
- Jingjing Feng
- Fan Yang
Accurately predicting tunnel boring machine (TBM) excavation performance while ensuring model interpretability remains challenging under hard rock tunneling conditions with noisy, redundant multi-source sensor data. To address this, the paper first collects 83, 868 sets of tunneling data from actual engineering projects and, through grey relational analysis, determines 10 highly correlated feature parameters from the cleaned dataset. Then, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), combined with the wavelet threshold method, is employed for joint denoising. A hybrid model of graph attention network (GAT) and bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) is constructed to achieve synchronous prediction of multiple performance parameters (such as specific energy, field penetration index, and torque penetration index). The Bayesian optimization algorithm is introduced to adaptively tune the hyperparameters, and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) are combined to analyze the decision-making mechanism of the model from both global and local perspectives. Verification using the actual tunnel dataset shows that the model achieves an average coefficient of determination of 0. 9303 across the three performance parameters, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 2. 42%. Compared with the baseline model BiLSTM, the average coefficient of determination improves by 6. 4%, and the MAPE decreases by 37. 3%. Furthermore, the proposed method outperforms mainstream state-of-the-art prediction models. The core innovation is the integration of CEEMDAN-wavelet denoising, GAT-BiLSTM spatiotemporal prediction, and SHAP interpretability, enabling both high-precision and transparent TBM excavation performance prediction.