Author name cluster

Jesse Dodge

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10 papers

2 author rows

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

DataDecide: How to Predict Best Pretraining Data with Small Experiments

Ian Magnusson
Nguyen Tai
Ben Bogin
David Heineman
Jena D. Hwang
Luca Soldaini
Akshita Bhagia
Jiacheng Liu 0010

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide—the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e. g. , 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) ($\tilde$ 80% of comparisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval $>$ 80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0. 01% of the compute.

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ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Holistically Evaluating the Environmental Impact of Creating Language Models

Jacob Morrison
Clara Na
Jared Fernandez
Tim Dettmers
Emma Strubell
Jesse Dodge

As the performance of artificial intelligence systems has dramatically increased, so too has the environmental impact of creating these systems. While many model developers release estimates of the power consumption and carbon emissions from the final training runs for their latest models, there is comparatively little transparency into the impact of model development, hardware manufacturing, and total water usage throughout. In this work, we estimate the real-world environmental impact of developing a series of language models, ranging from 20 million to 13 billion active parameters, trained on up to 5.6 trillion tokens each. When accounting for hardware manufacturing, model development, and our final training runs, we find that our series of models released **493 metric tons** of carbon emissions, equivalent to powering about 98 homes in the United States for one year, and consumed **2.769 million liters of water**, equivalent to about 24.5 years of water usage by a person in the United States, even though our data center is extremely water-efficient. We measure and report the environmental impact of our model development; to the best of our knowledge we are the first to do so for LLMs, and we find that model development, the impact of which is generally not disclosed by most model developers, amounted to **~50%** of that of training. By looking at detailed time series data for power consumption, we also find that power usage throughout training is not consistent, fluctuating between ~15% and ~85% of our hardware's maximum power draw, with negative implications for grid-scale planning as demand continues to grow. We close with a discussion on the continued difficulty of estimating the environmental impact of AI systems, and key takeaways for model developers and the public at large.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Position: Machine Learning Conferences Should Establish a "Refutations and Critiques" Track

Rylan Schaeffer
Joshua Kazdan
Yegor Denisov-Blanch
Brando Miranda
Matthias Gerstgrasser
Susan Zhang
Andreas Haupt
Isha Gupta

Science progresses by iteratively advancing and correcting humanity's understanding of the world. In machine learning (ML) research, rapid advancements have led to an explosion of publications, but have also led to misleading, incorrect, flawed or perhaps even fraudulent studies being accepted and sometimes highlighted at ML conferences due to the fallibility of peer review. While such mistakes are understandable, ML conferences do not offer robust processes to help the field systematically correct when such errors are made. This position paper argues that ML conferences should establish a dedicated "Refutations and Critiques" (R&C) Track. This R&C Track would provide a high-profile, reputable platform to support vital research that critically challenges prior research, thereby fostering a dynamic self-correcting research ecosystem. We discuss key considerations including track design, review principles, potential pitfalls, and provide an illustrative example submission concerning a recent ICLR 2025 Oral. We conclude that ML conferences should create official, reputable mechanisms to help ML research self-correct.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

SciArena: An Open Evaluation Platform for Non-Verifiable Scientific Literature-Grounded Tasks

Yilun Zhao
Kaiyan Zhang
Tiansheng Hu
Sihong Wu
Ronan Le Bras
Yixin Liu
Robert Tang
Joseph Chee Chang

We present SciArena, an open and collaborative platform for evaluating foundation models on scientific literature-grounded tasks. Unlike traditional benchmarks for scientific literature understanding and synthesis, SciArena engages the research community directly, following the Chatbot Arena evaluation approach of community voting on model comparisons. By leveraging collective intelligence, SciArena offers a community-driven evaluation of model performance on open-ended scientific tasks that demand literature-grounded, long-form responses. The platform currently supports 44 open-source and proprietary foundation models and has collected over 19, 000 votes from human researchers across diverse scientific domains. Our analysis of the data collected so far confirms its high quality. We discuss the results and insights based on the model ranking leaderboard. To further promote research in building model-based automated evaluation systems for literature tasks, we release SciArena-Eval, a meta-evaluation benchmark based on our collected preference data. The benchmark measures the accuracy of models in judging answer quality by comparing their pairwise assessments with human votes. Our experiments highlight the benchmark’s challenges and emphasize the need for more reliable automated evaluation methods.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Signal and Noise: A Framework for Reducing Uncertainty in Language Model Evaluation

David Heineman
Valentin Hofmann
Ian Magnusson
Yuling Gu
Noah Smith
Hanna Hajishirzi
Kyle Lo
Jesse Dodge

Developing large language models is expensive and often involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable and useful for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark’s ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark’s sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce four interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e. g. , perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy benchmarks such that they have better signal-to-noise ratio leads to more reliable evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 465 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 50K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Paloma: A Benchmark for Evaluating Language Model Fit

Ian Magnusson
Akshita Bhagia
Valentin Hofmann
Luca Soldaini
Ananya H. Jha
Oyvind Tafjord
Dustin Schwenk
Evan P. Walsh

Evaluations of language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domains—varying distributions of language. We introduce Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), a benchmark to measure LM fit to 546 English and code domains, instead of assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others. We include two new datasets of the top 100 subreddits (e. g. , r/depression on Reddit) and programming languages (e. g. , Java on GitHub), both sources common in contemporary LMs. With our benchmark, we release 6 baseline 1B LMs carefully controlled to provide fair comparisons about which pretraining corpus is best and code for others to apply those controls to their own experiments. Our case studies demonstrate how the fine-grained results from Paloma surface findings such as that models pretrained without data beyond Common Crawl exhibit anomalous gaps in LM fit to many domains or that loss is dominated by the most frequently occurring strings in the vocabulary.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

What's In My Big Data?

Yanai Elazar
Akshita Bhagia
Ian Magnusson
Abhilasha Ravichander
Dustin Schwenk
Alane Suhr
Evan Pete Walsh
Dirk Groeneveld

Large text corpora are the backbone of language models. However, we have a limited understanding of the content of these corpora, including general statistics, quality, social factors, and inclusion of evaluation data (contamination). In this work, we propose What's In My Big Data? (WIMBD), a platform and a set of sixteen analyses that allow us to reveal and compare the contents of large text corpora. WIMBD builds on two basic capabilities---count and search---*at scale*, which allows us to analyze more than 35 terabytes on a standard compute node. We apply WIMBD to ten different corpora used to train popular language models, including *C4*, *The Pile*, and *RedPajama*. Our analysis uncovers several surprising and previously undocumented findings about these corpora, including the high prevalence of duplicate, synthetic, and low-quality content, personally identifiable information, toxic language, and benchmark contamination. For instance, we find that about 50% of the documents in *RedPajama* and *LAION-2B-en* are duplicates. In addition, several datasets used for benchmarking models trained on such corpora are contaminated with respect to important benchmarks, including the Winograd Schema Challenge and parts of GLUE and SuperGLUE. We open-source WIMBD's code and artifacts to provide a standard set of evaluations for new text-based corpora and to encourage more analyses and transparency around them.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Multimodal C4: An Open, Billion-scale Corpus of Images Interleaved with Text

Wanrong Zhu
Jack Hessel
Anas Awadalla
Samir Yitzhak Gadre
Jesse Dodge
Alex Fang
Youngjae Yu
Ludwig Schmidt

In-context vision and language models like Flamingo support arbitrarily interleaved sequences of images and text as input. This format not only enables few-shot learning via interleaving independent supervised (image, text) examples, but also, more complex prompts involving interaction between images, e. g. , ``What do image A and image B have in common? ''To support this interface, pretraining occurs over web corpora that similarly contain interleaved images+text. To date, however, large-scale data of this form have not been publicly available. We release Multimodal C4, an augmentation of the popular text-only C4 corpus with images interleaved. We use a linear assignment algorithm to place images into longer bodies of text using CLIP features, a process that we show outperforms alternatives. Multimodal C4 spans everyday topics like cooking, travel, technology, etc. A manual inspection of a random sample of documents shows that a vast majority (88\%) of images are topically relevant, and that linear assignment frequently selects individual sentences specifically well-aligned with each image (80\%). After filtering NSFW images, ads, etc. , the resulting corpus consists of 101. 2M documents with 571M images interleaved in 43B English tokens.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Modeling the Machine Learning Multiverse

Samuel J. Bell
Onno Kampman
Jesse Dodge
Neil Lawrence

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

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ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Staged Training for Transformer Language Models

Sheng Shen 0001
Pete Walsh
Kurt Keutzer
Jesse Dodge
Matthew E. Peters
Iz Beltagy

The current standard approach to scaling transformer language models trains each model size from a different random initialization. As an alternative, we consider a staged training setup that begins with a small model and incrementally increases the amount of compute used for training by applying a "growth operator" to increase the model depth and width. By initializing each stage with the output of the previous one, the training process effectively re-uses the compute from prior stages and becomes more efficient. Our growth operators each take as input the entire training state (including model parameters, optimizer state, learning rate schedule, etc.) and output a new training state from which training continues. We identify two important properties of these growth operators, namely that they preserve both the loss and the “training dynamics” after applying the operator. While the loss-preserving property has been discussed previously, to the best of our knowledge this work is the first to identify the importance of preserving the training dynamics (the rate of decrease of the loss during training). To find the optimal schedule for stages, we use the scaling laws from (Kaplan et al. , 2020) to find a precise schedule that gives the most compute saving by starting a new stage when training efficiency starts decreasing. We empirically validate our growth operators and staged training for autoregressive language models, showing up to 22% compute savings compared to a strong baseline trained from scratch. Our code is available at https: //github. com/allenai/staged-training.

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