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Jesse Cresswell

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5 papers

1 author row

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

CausalPFN: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via In-Context Learning

Vahid Balazadeh Meresht
Hamidreza Kamkari
Valentin Thomas
Junwei Ma
Bingru Li
Jesse Cresswell
Rahul Krishnan

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out of the box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model requires no further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https: //github. com/vdblm/CausalPFN/).

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Document Summarization with Conformal Importance Guarantees

Bruce Kuwahara
Chen-Yuan Lin
Xiao Shi Huang
Kin Kwan Leung
Jullian Yapeter
Ilya Stanevich
Felipe Perez
Jesse Cresswell

Automatic summarization systems have advanced rapidly with large language models (LLMs), yet they still lack reliable guarantees on inclusion of critical content in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. In this work, we introduce Conformal Importance Summarization, the first framework for importance-preserving summary generation which uses conformal prediction to provide rigorous, distribution-free coverage guarantees. By calibrating thresholds on sentence-level importance scores, we enable extractive document summarization with user-specified coverage and recall rates over critical content. Our method is model-agnostic, requires only a small calibration set, and seamlessly integrates with existing black-box LLMs. Experiments on established summarization benchmarks demonstrate that Conformal Importance Summarization achieves the theoretically assured information coverage rate. Our work suggests that Conformal Importance Summarization can be combined with existing techniques to achieve reliable, controllable automatic summarization, paving the way for safer deployment of AI summarization tools in critical applications. Code is available at github. com/layer6ai-labs/conformal-importance-summarization.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

TabDPT: Scaling Tabular Foundation Models on Real Data

Junwei Ma
Valentin Thomas
Rasa Hosseinzadeh
Alex Labach
Jesse Cresswell
Keyvan Golestan
Guangwei Yu
Anthony L Caterini

Tabular data is one of the most ubiquitous sources of information worldwide, spanning a wide variety of domains. This inherent heterogeneity has slowed the development of Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) capable of fast generalization to unseen datasets. In-Context Learning (ICL) has recently emerged as a promising solution for TFMs, enabling dynamic adaptation to new tasks without additional tuning. While many studies have attempted to re-purpose large language models for tabular ICL, they have had limited success, so recent works have focused on developing tabular-specific foundation models. In this work, we propose an approach to combine ICL-based retrieval with self supervised learning to train tabular foundation models. We also investigate the utility of real vs. synthetic data for model pre-training, and show that real data can contain useful signal not easily captured in synthetic training. Specifically, we show that incorporating real data during the pre-training phase can lead to significantly faster training and better downstream generalization to unseen data. Our resulting model, TabDPT, achieves strong performance on both regression (CTR23) and classification (CC18) benchmarks. Importantly, we also demonstrate that with our pre-training procedure, scaling both model and data size leads to consistent performance improvements that follow power laws. This echoes scaling laws in LLMs and other foundation models, and suggests that large-scale TFMs can be achievable. We open-source our full pipeline: inference code including trained model weights can be found here, and the training code to reproduce experiments can be found here.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Exposing flaws of generative model evaluation metrics and their unfair treatment of diffusion models

George Stein
Jesse Cresswell
Rasa Hosseinzadeh
Yi Sui
Brendan Ross
Valentin Villecroze
Zhaoyan Liu
Anthony L. Caterini

We systematically study a wide variety of generative models spanning semantically-diverse image datasets to understand and improve the feature extractors and metrics used to evaluate them. Using best practices in psychophysics, we measure human perception of image realism for generated samples by conducting the largest experiment evaluating generative models to date, and find that no existing metric strongly correlates with human evaluations. Comparing to 17 modern metrics for evaluating the overall performance, fidelity, diversity, rarity, and memorization of generative models, we find that the state-of-the-art perceptual realism of diffusion models as judged by humans is not reflected in commonly reported metrics such as FID. This discrepancy is not explained by diversity in generated samples, though one cause is over-reliance on Inception-V3. We address these flaws through a study of alternative self-supervised feature extractors, find that the semantic information encoded by individual networks strongly depends on their training procedure, and show that DINOv2-ViT-L/14 allows for much richer evaluation of generative models. Next, we investigate data memorization, and find that generative models do memorize training examples on simple, smaller datasets like CIFAR10, but not necessarily on more complex datasets like ImageNet. However, our experiments show that current metrics do not properly detect memorization: none in the literature is able to separate memorization from other phenomena such as underfitting or mode shrinkage. To facilitate further development of generative models and their evaluation we release all generated image datasets, human evaluation data, and a modular library to compute 17 common metrics for 9 different encoders at https: //github. com/layer6ai-labs/dgm-eval.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Tractable Density Estimation on Learned Manifolds with Conformal Embedding Flows

Brendan Ross
Jesse Cresswell

Normalizing flows are generative models that provide tractable density estimation via an invertible transformation from a simple base distribution to a complex target distribution. However, this technique cannot directly model data supported on an unknown low-dimensional manifold, a common occurrence in real-world domains such as image data. Recent attempts to remedy this limitation have introduced geometric complications that defeat a central benefit of normalizing flows: exact density estimation. We recover this benefit with Conformal Embedding Flows, a framework for designing flows that learn manifolds with tractable densities. We argue that composing a standard flow with a trainable conformal embedding is the most natural way to model manifold-supported data. To this end, we present a series of conformal building blocks and apply them in experiments with synthetic and real-world data to demonstrate that flows can model manifold-supported distributions without sacrificing tractable likelihoods.

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