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Jannik Kossen

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11 papers

2 author rows

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty

Freddie Bickford Smith
Jannik Kossen
Eleanor Trollope
Mark van der Wilk
Adam Foster 0001
Tom Rainforth

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the aleatoric-epistemic view being insufficiently expressive to capture all the distinct quantities that researchers are interested in. To address this we present a decision-theoretic perspective that relates rigorous notions of uncertainty, predictive performance and statistical dispersion in data. This serves to support clearer thinking as the field moves forward. Additionally we provide insights into popular information-theoretic quantities, showing they can be poor estimators of what they are often purported to measure, while also explaining how they can still be useful in guiding data acquisition.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Scaling Up Active Testing to Large Language Models

Gabrielle Berrada
Jannik Kossen
Freddie Bickford Smith
Muhammed Razzak
Yarin Gal
Thomas Rainforth

Active testing enables label-efficient evaluation of predictive models through careful data acquisition, but it can pose a significant computational cost. We identify cost-saving measures that enable active testing to be scaled up to large language models (LLMs). In particular we show that the surrogate model used to guide data acquisition can be constructed cheaply using in-context learning, does not require updating within an active-testing loop, and can be smaller than the target model. We even find we can make good data-acquisition decisions without making predictions with the target model. As a result we are able to achieve much more accurate evaluations of LLM performance relative to using randomly acquired data. We additionally introduce a bootstrap estimator of evaluation error, which we show to be a useful indicator of how well active testing is working within a single run.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Estimating the Hallucination Rate of Generative AI

Andrew Jesson
Nicolas Beltran-Velez
Quentin Chu
Sweta Karlekar
Jannik Kossen
Yarin Gal
John P. Cunningham
David Blei

This paper presents a method for estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and a prediction question and asked to generate a response. One interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM computes the posterior predictive of an unknown Bayesian model, which implicitly defines a joint distribution over observable datasets and latent mechanisms. This joint distribution factorizes into two components: the model prior over mechanisms and the model likelihood of datasets given a mechanism. With this perspective, we define a \textit{hallucination} as a generated response to the prediction question with low model likelihood given the mechanism. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating prediction questions and responses from the CGM and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method using large language models for synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

In-Context Learning Learns Label Relationships but Is Not Conventional Learning

Jannik Kossen
Yarin Gal
Tom Rainforth

The predictions of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks often improve significantly when including examples of the input–label relationship in the context. However, there is currently no consensus about how this in-context learning (ICL) ability of LLMs works. For example, while Xie et al. (2022) liken ICL to a general-purpose learning algorithm, Min et al. (2022b) argue ICL does not even learn label relationships from in-context examples. In this paper, we provide novel insights into how ICL leverages label information, revealing both capabilities and limitations. To ensure we obtain a comprehensive picture of ICL behavior, we study probabilistic aspects of ICL predictions and thoroughly examine the dynamics of ICL as more examples are provided. Our experiments show that ICL predictions almost always depend on in-context labels and that ICL can learn truly novel tasks in-context. However, we also find that ICL struggles to fully overcome prediction preferences acquired from pre-training data and, further, that ICL does not consider all in-context information equally.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities

Alexander Nikitin
Jannik Kossen
Yarin Gal
Pekka Marttinen

Uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for applications where safety and reliability are important. In particular, uncertainty can be used to improve the trustworthiness of LLMs by detecting factually incorrect model responses, commonly called hallucinations. Critically, one should seek to capture the model's semantic uncertainty, i. e. , the uncertainty over the meanings of LLM outputs, rather than uncertainty over lexical or syntactic variations that do not affect answer correctness. To address this problem, we propose Kernel Language Entropy (KLE), a novel method for uncertainty estimation in white- and black-box LLMs. KLE defines positive semidefinite unit trace kernels to encode the semantic similarities of LLM outputs and quantifies uncertainty using the von Neumann entropy. It considers pairwise semantic dependencies between answers (or semantic clusters), providing more fine-grained uncertainty estimates than previous methods based on hard clustering of answers. We theoretically prove that KLE generalizes the previous state-of-the-art method called semantic entropy and empirically demonstrate that it improves uncertainty quantification performance across multiple natural language generation datasets and LLM architectures.

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TMLR Journal 2023 Journal Article

Active Acquisition for Multimodal Temporal Data: A Challenging Decision-Making Task

Jannik Kossen
Cătălina Cangea
Eszter Vértes
Andrew Jaegle
Viorica Patraucean
Ira Ktena
Nenad Tomasev
Danielle Belgrave

We introduce a challenging decision-making task that we call active acquisition for multimodal temporal data (A2MT). In many real-world scenarios, input features are not readily available at test time and must instead be acquired at significant cost. With A2MT, we aim to learn agents that actively select which modalities of an input to acquire, trading off acquisition cost and predictive performance. A2MT extends a previous task called active feature acquisition to temporal decision making about high-dimensional inputs. We propose a method based on the Perceiver IO architecture to address A2MT in practice. Our agents are able to solve a novel synthetic scenario requiring practically relevant cross-modal reasoning skills. On two large-scale, real-world datasets, Kinetics-700 and AudioSet, our agents successfully learn cost-reactive acquisition behavior. However, an ablation reveals they are unable to learn adaptive acquisition strategies, emphasizing the difficulty of the task even for state-of-the-art models. Applications of A2MT may be impactful in domains like medicine, robotics, or finance, where modalities differ in acquisition cost and informativeness.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Three Towers: Flexible Contrastive Learning with Pretrained Image Models

Jannik Kossen
Mark Collier
Basil Mustafa
Xiao Wang
Xiaohua Zhai
Lucas Beyer
Andreas Steiner
Jesse Berent

We introduce Three Towers (3T), a flexible method to improve the contrastive learning of vision-language models by incorporating pretrained image classifiers. While contrastive models are usually trained from scratch, LiT (Zhai et al. , 2022) has recently shown performance gains from using pretrained classifier embeddings. However, LiT directly replaces the image tower with the frozen embeddings, excluding any potential benefits from training the image tower contrastively. With 3T, we propose a more flexible strategy that allows the image tower to benefit from both pretrained embeddings and contrastive training. To achieve this, we introduce a third tower that contains the frozen pretrained embeddings, and we encourage alignment between this third tower and the main image-text towers. Empirically, 3T consistently improves over LiT and the CLIP-style from-scratch baseline for retrieval tasks. For classification, 3T reliably improves over the from-scratch baseline, and while it underperforms relative to LiT for JFT-pretrained models, it outperforms LiT for ImageNet-21k and Places365 pretraining.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Active Surrogate Estimators: An Active Learning Approach to Label-Efficient Model Evaluation

Jannik Kossen
Sebastian Farquhar
Yarin Gal
Thomas Rainforth

We propose Active Surrogate Estimators (ASEs), a new method for label-efficient model evaluation. Evaluating model performance is a challenging and important problem when labels are expensive. ASEs address this active testing problem using a surrogate-based estimation approach that interpolates the errors of points with unknown labels, rather than forming a Monte Carlo estimator. ASEs actively learn the underlying surrogate, and we propose a novel acquisition strategy, XWED, that tailors this learning to the final estimation task. We find that ASEs offer greater label-efficiency than the current state-of-the-art when applied to challenging model evaluation problems for deep neural networks.

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ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Active Testing: Sample-Efficient Model Evaluation

Jannik Kossen
Sebastian Farquhar
Yarin Gal
Tom Rainforth

We introduce a new framework for sample-efficient model evaluation that we call active testing. While approaches like active learning reduce the number of labels needed for model training, existing literature largely ignores the cost of labeling test data, typically unrealistically assuming large test sets for model evaluation. This creates a disconnect to real applications, where test labels are important and just as expensive, e. g. for optimizing hyperparameters. Active testing addresses this by carefully selecting the test points to label, ensuring model evaluation is sample-efficient. To this end, we derive theoretically-grounded and intuitive acquisition strategies that are specifically tailored to the goals of active testing, noting these are distinct to those of active learning. As actively selecting labels introduces a bias; we further show how to remove this bias while reducing the variance of the estimator at the same time. Active testing is easy to implement and can be applied to any supervised machine learning method. We demonstrate its effectiveness on models including WideResNets and Gaussian processes on datasets including Fashion-MNIST and CIFAR-100.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Self-Attention Between Datapoints: Going Beyond Individual Input-Output Pairs in Deep Learning

Jannik Kossen
Neil Band
Clare Lyle
Aidan N. Gomez
Thomas Rainforth
Yarin Gal

We challenge a common assumption underlying most supervised deep learning: that a model makes a prediction depending only on its parameters and the features of a single input. To this end, we introduce a general-purpose deep learning architecture that takes as input the entire dataset instead of processing one datapoint at a time. Our approach uses self-attention to reason about relationships between datapoints explicitly, which can be seen as realizing non-parametric models using parametric attention mechanisms. However, unlike conventional non-parametric models, we let the model learn end-to-end from the data how to make use of other datapoints for prediction. Empirically, our models solve cross-datapoint lookup and complex reasoning tasks unsolvable by traditional deep learning models. We show highly competitive results on tabular data, early results on CIFAR-10, and give insight into how the model makes use of the interactions between points.

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ICLR Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Structured Object-Aware Physics Prediction for Video Modeling and Planning

Jannik Kossen
Karl Stelzner
Marcel Hussing
Claas Voelcker
Kristian Kersting

When humans observe a physical system, they can easily locate components, understand their interactions, and anticipate future behavior, even in settings with complicated and previously unseen interactions. For computers, however, learning such models from videos in an unsupervised fashion is an unsolved research problem. In this paper, we present STOVE, a novel state-space model for videos, which explicitly reasons about objects and their positions, velocities, and interactions. It is constructed by combining an image model and a dynamics model in compositional manner and improves on previous work by reusing the dynamics model for inference, accelerating and regularizing training. STOVE predicts videos with convincing physical behavior over hundreds of timesteps, outperforms previous unsupervised models, and even approaches the performance of supervised baselines. We further demonstrate the strength of our model as a simulator for sample efficient model-based control, in a task with heavily interacting objects.

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