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James Zhang

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10 papers

1 author row

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster

Kanghui Ning
Zijie Pan
Yu Liu
Yushan Jiang
James Zhang
Kashif Rasul
Anderson Schneider
Lintao Ma

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6. 84\% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https: //github. com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG.

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AAAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

GMP-AR: Granularity Message Passing and Adaptive Reconciliation for Temporal Hierarchy Forecasting

Fan Zhou
Chen Pan
Lintao Ma
Yu Liu
Siqiao Xue
James Zhang
Jun Zhou
Hongyuan Mei

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

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AAAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

LLMRG: Improving Recommendations through Large Language Model Reasoning Graphs

Yan Wang
Zhixuan Chu
Xin Ouyang
Simeng Wang
Hongyan Hao
Yue Shen
Jinjie Gu
Siqiao Xue

Recommendation systems aim to provide users with relevant suggestions, but often lack interpretability and fail to capture higher-level semantic relationships between user behaviors and profiles. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to construct personalized reasoning graphs. These graphs link a user's profile and behavioral sequences through causal and logical inferences, representing the user's interests in an interpretable way. Our approach, LLM reasoning graphs (LLMRG), has four components: chained graph reasoning, divergent extension, self-verification and scoring, and knowledge base self-improvement. The resulting reasoning graph is encoded using graph neural networks, which serves as additional input to improve conventional recommender systems, without requiring extra user or item information. Our approach demonstrates how LLMs can enable more logical and interpretable recommender systems through personalized reasoning graphs. LLMRG allows recommendations to benefit from both engineered recommendation systems and LLM-derived reasoning graphs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LLMRG on benchmarks and real-world scenarios in enhancing base recommendation models.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Bellman Meets Hawkes: Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Temporal Point Processes

Chao Qu
Xiaoyu Tan
Siqiao Xue
Xiaoming Shi
James Zhang
Hongyuan Mei

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-data experiments.

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IJCAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Full Scaling Automation for Sustainable Development of Green Data Centers

Shiyu Wang
Yinbo Sun
Xiaoming Shi
Zhu Shiyi
Lin-Tao Ma
James Zhang
Yangfei Zheng
Liu Jian

The rapid rise in cloud computing has resulted in an alarming increase in data centers' carbon emissions, which now accounts for >3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating immediate steps to combat their mounting strain on the global climate. An important focus of this effort is to improve resource utilization in order to save electricity usage. Our proposed Full Scaling Automation (FSA) mechanism is an effective method of dynamically adapting resources to accommodate changing workloads in large-scale cloud computing clusters, enabling the clusters in data centers to maintain their desired CPU utilization target and thus improve energy efficiency. FSA harnesses the power of deep representation learning to accurately predict the future workload of each service and automatically stabilize the corresponding target CPU usage level, unlike the previous autoscaling methods, such as Autopilot or FIRM, that need to adjust computing resources with statistical models and expert knowledge. Our approach achieves significant performance improvement compared to the existing work in real-world datasets. We also deployed FSA on large-scale cloud computing clusters in industrial data centers, and according to the certification of the China Environmental United Certification Center (CEC), a reduction of 947 tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to a saving of 1538, 000 kWh of electricity, was achieved during the Double 11 shopping festival of 2022, marking a critical step for our company’s strategic goal towards carbon neutrality by 2030.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning

Xiaoming Shi
Siqiao Xue
Kangrui Wang
Fan Zhou
James Zhang
Jun Zhou
Chenhao Tan
Hongyuan Mei

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework---thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models---could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Prompt-augmented Temporal Point Process for Streaming Event Sequence

Siqiao Xue
Yan Wang
Zhixuan Chu
Xiaoming Shi
Caigao JIANG
Hongyan Hao
Gangwei Jiang
Xiaoyun Feng

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real world applications, the event data typically comes in a streaming manner, where the distribution of the patterns may shift over time. Under the privacy and memory constraints commonly seen in real scenarios, how to continuously monitor a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-investigated problem. In this work, we approach this problem by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which aims to enable a model to continuously learn a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting. While CL for event sequence is less well studied, we present a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPP, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. In our proposed framework, prompts are small learnable parameters, maintained in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP so that the model is properly instructed to learn event streams arriving sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We formalize a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently sets state-of-the-art performance across two real user behavior datasets.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

SLOTH: Structured Learning and Task-Based Optimization for Time Series Forecasting on Hierarchies

Fan Zhou
Chen Pan
Lintao Ma
Yu Liu
Shiyu Wang
James Zhang
Xinxin Zhu
Xuanwei Hu

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS) forecasting includes two sub-tasks, i.e., forecasting and reconciliation. In the previous works, hierarchical information is only integrated in the reconciliation step to maintain coherency, but not in forecasting step for accuracy improvement. In this paper, we propose two novel tree-based feature integration mechanisms, i.e., top-down convolution and bottom-up attention to leverage the information of the hierarchical structure to improve the forecasting performance. Moreover, unlike most previous reconciliation methods which either rely on strong assumptions or focus on coherent constraints only, we utilize deep neural optimization networks, which not only achieve coherency without any assumptions, but also allow more flexible and realistic constraints to achieve task-based targets, e.g., lower under-estimation penalty and meaningful decision-making loss to facilitate the subsequent downstream tasks. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our tree-based feature integration mechanism achieves superior performances on hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to the state-of-the-art methods, and our neural optimization networks can be applied to real-world tasks effectively without any additional effort under coherence and task-based constraints.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequences

Siqiao Xue
Xiaoming Shi
James Zhang
Hongyuan Mei

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

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IJCAI Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Memory Augmented State Space Model for Time Series Forecasting

Yinbo Sun
Lintao Ma
Yu Liu
Shijun Wang
James Zhang
Yangfei Zheng
Hu Yun
Lei Lei

State space model (SSM) provides a general and flexible forecasting framework for time series. Conventional SSM with fixed-order Markovian assumption often falls short in handling the long-range temporal dependencies and/or highly non-linear correlation in time-series data, which is crucial for accurate forecasting. To this extend, we present External Memory Augmented State Space Model (EMSSM) within the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework. Unlike the common fixed-order Markovian SSM, our model features an external memory system, in which we store informative latent state experience, whereby to create ``memoryful" latent dynamics modeling complex long-term dependencies. Moreover, conditional normalizing flows are incorporated in our emission model, enabling the adaptation to a broad class of underlying data distributions. We further propose a Monte Carlo Objective that employs an efficient variational proposal distribution, which fuses the filtering and the dynamic prior information, to approximate the posterior state with proper particles. Our results demonstrate the competitiveness of forecasting performance of our proposed model comparing with other state-of-the-art SSMs.

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