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Jake Snell

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12 papers

2 author rows

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Conformal Prediction as Bayesian Quadrature

Jake Snell
Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques such as conformal prediction provide guarantees about the loss black-box models will incur even when the details of the models are hidden. However, such methods are based on frequentist probability, which unduly limits their applicability. We revisit the central aspects of conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and thereby illuminate the shortcomings of frequentist guarantees. We propose a practical alternative based on Bayesian quadrature that provides interpretable guarantees and offers a richer representation of the likely range of losses to be observed at test time.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Implicit Maximum a Posteriori Filtering via Adaptive Optimization

Gianluca M. Bencomo
Jake Snell
Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires matrix storage, inversion, and multiplication or Monte Carlo estimation, none of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we consider the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

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TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

Improving Predictor Reliability with Selective Recalibration

Thomas P Zollo
Zhun Deng
Jake Snell
Toniann Pitassi
Richard Zemel

A reliable deep learning system should be able to accurately express its confidence with respect to its predictions, a quality known as calibration. One of the most effective ways to produce reliable confidence estimates with a pre-trained model is by applying a post-hoc recalibration method. Popular recalibration methods like temperature scaling are typically fit on a small amount of data and work in the model’s output space, as opposed to the more expressive feature embedding space, and thus usually have only one or a handful of parameters. However, the target distribution to which they are applied is often complex and difficult to fit well with such a function. To this end we propose selective recalibration, where a selection model learns to reject some user-chosen proportion of the data in order to allow the recalibrator to focus on regions of the input space that can be well-captured by such a model. We provide theoretical analysis to motivate our algorithm, and test our method through comprehensive experiments on difficult medical imaging and zero-shot classification tasks. Our results show that selective recalibration consistently leads to significantly lower calibration error than a wide range of selection and recalibration baselines.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Prompt Risk Control: A Rigorous Framework for Responsible Deployment of Large Language Models

Thomas P. Zollo
Todd Morrill
Zhun Deng
Jake Snell
Toniann Pitassi
Richard S. Zemel

With the explosion of the zero-shot capabilities of (and thus interest in) pre-trained large language models, there has come accompanying interest in how best to prompt a language model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to choose a prompt based on empirical results on a validation set, this can lead to a deployment where an unexpectedly high loss occurs. To mitigate this prospect, we propose a lightweight framework, Prompt Risk Control, for selecting a prompt based on rigorous upper bounds on families of informative risk measures. We provide and compare different methods for producing bounds on a diverse set of risk metrics like mean, CVaR, and the Gini coefficient of the loss distribution. In addition, we extend the underlying statistical bounding techniques to accommodate the possibility of distribution shifts in deployment. Extensive experiments on high-impact applications like chatbots, medical question answering, and news summarization highlight why such a framework is necessary to reduce exposure to the worst outcomes.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Distribution-Free Statistical Dispersion Control for Societal Applications

Zhun Deng
Thomas Zollo
Jake Snell
Toniann Pitassi
Richard Zemel

Explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees on model performance are an important ingredient in responsible machine learning. Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an individual prediction will incur a loss value in a specified range. However, for many high-stakes applications it is crucial to understand and control the \textit{dispersion} of a loss distribution, or the extent to which different members of a population experience unequal effects of algorithmic decisions. We initiate the study of distribution-free control of statistical dispersion measures with societal implications and propose a simple yet flexible framework that allows us to handle a much richer class of statistical functionals beyond previous work. Our methods are verified through experiments in toxic comment detection, medical imaging, and film recommendation.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Im-Promptu: In-Context Composition from Image Prompts

Bhishma Dedhia
Michael Chang
Jake Snell
Tom Griffiths
Niraj Jha

Large language models are few-shot learners that can solve diverse tasks from a handful of demonstrations. This implicit understanding of tasks suggests that the attention mechanisms over word tokens may play a role in analogical reasoning. In this work, we investigate whether analogical reasoning can enable in-context composition over composable elements of visual stimuli. First, we introduce a suite of three benchmarks to test the generalization properties of a visual in-context learner. We formalize the notion of an analogy-based in-context learner and use it to design a meta-learning framework called Im-Promptu. Whereas the requisite token granularity for language is well established, the appropriate compositional granularity for enabling in-context generalization in visual stimuli is usually unspecified. To this end, we use Im-Promptu to train multiple agents with different levels of compositionality, including vector representations, patch representations, and object slots. Our experiments reveal tradeoffs between extrapolation abilities and the degree of compositionality, with non-compositional representations extending learned composition rules to unseen domains but performing poorly on combinatorial tasks. Patch-based representations require patches to contain entire objects for robust extrapolation. At the same time, object-centric tokenizers coupled with a cross-attention module generate consistent and high-fidelity solutions, with these inductive biases being particularly crucial for compositional generalization. Lastly, we demonstrate a use case of Im-Promptu as an intuitive programming interface for image generation.

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ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Quantile Risk Control: A Flexible Framework for Bounding the Probability of High-Loss Predictions

Jake Snell
Thomas P. Zollo
Zhun Deng
Toniann Pitassi
Richard S. Zemel

Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many risk-sensitive applications where the distribution of errors is important. In this work, we propose a flexible framework to produce a family of bounds on quantiles of the loss distribution incurred by a predictor. Our method takes advantage of the order statistics of the observed loss values rather than relying on the sample mean alone. We show that a quantile is an informative way of quantifying predictive performance, and that our framework applies to a variety of quantile-based metrics, each targeting important subsets of the data distribution. We analyze the theoretical properties of our proposed method and demonstrate its ability to rigorously control loss quantiles on several real-world datasets.

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ICLR Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Bayesian Few-Shot Classification with One-vs-Each Pólya-Gamma Augmented Gaussian Processes

Jake Snell
Richard S. Zemel

Few-shot classification (FSC), the task of adapting a classifier to unseen classes given a small labeled dataset, is an important step on the path toward human-like machine learning. Bayesian methods are well-suited to tackling the fundamental issue of overfitting in the few-shot scenario because they allow practitioners to specify prior beliefs and update those beliefs in light of observed data. Contemporary approaches to Bayesian few-shot classification maintain a posterior distribution over model parameters, which is slow and requires storage that scales with model size. Instead, we propose a Gaussian process classifier based on a novel combination of Pólya-Gamma augmentation and the one-vs-each softmax approximation that allows us to efficiently marginalize over functions rather than model parameters. We demonstrate improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification on both standard few-shot classification benchmarks and few-shot domain transfer tasks.

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ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Lorentzian Distance Learning for Hyperbolic Representations

Marc Teva Law
Renjie Liao 0001
Jake Snell
Richard S. Zemel

We introduce an approach to learn representations based on the Lorentzian distance in hyperbolic geometry. Hyperbolic geometry is especially suited to hierarchically-structured datasets, which are prevalent in the real world. Current hyperbolic representation learning methods compare examples with the Poincaré distance. They try to minimize the distance of each node in a hierarchy with its descendants while maximizing its distance with other nodes. This formulation produces node representations close to the centroid of their descendants. To obtain efficient and interpretable algorithms, we exploit the fact that the centroid w. r. t the squared Lorentzian distance can be written in closed-form. We show that the Euclidean norm of such a centroid decreases as the curvature of the hyperbolic space decreases. This property makes it appropriate to represent hierarchies where parent nodes minimize the distances to their descendants and have smaller Euclidean norm than their children. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art results in retrieval and classification tasks on different datasets.

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NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Learning Latent Subspaces in Variational Autoencoders

Jack Klys
Jake Snell
Richard Zemel

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are widely used deep generative models capable of learning unsupervised latent representations of data. Such representations are often difficult to interpret or control. We consider the problem of unsupervised learning of features correlated to specific labels in a dataset. We propose a VAE-based generative model which we show is capable of extracting features correlated to binary labels in the data and structuring it in a latent subspace which is easy to interpret. Our model, the Conditional Subspace VAE (CSVAE), uses mutual information minimization to learn a low-dimensional latent subspace associated with each label that can easily be inspected and independently manipulated. We demonstrate the utility of the learned representations for attribute manipulation tasks on both the Toronto Face and CelebA datasets.

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NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Prototypical Networks for Few-shot Learning

Jake Snell
Kevin Swersky
Richard Zemel

We propose Prototypical Networks for the problem of few-shot classification, where a classifier must generalize to new classes not seen in the training set, given only a small number of examples of each new class. Prototypical Networks learn a metric space in which classification can be performed by computing distances to prototype representations of each class. Compared to recent approaches for few-shot learning, they reflect a simpler inductive bias that is beneficial in this limited-data regime, and achieve excellent results. We provide an analysis showing that some simple design decisions can yield substantial improvements over recent approaches involving complicated architectural choices and meta-learning. We further extend Prototypical Networks to zero-shot learning and achieve state-of-the-art results on the CU-Birds dataset.

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UAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Stochastic Segmentation Trees for Multiple Ground Truths

Jake Snell
Richard S. Zemel

A strong machine learning system should aim to produce the full range of valid interpretations rather than a single mode in tasks involving inherent ambiguity. This is particularly true for image segmentation, in which there are many sensible ways to partition an image into regions. We formulate a tree-structured probabilistic model, the stochastic segmentation tree, that represents a distribution over segmentations of a given image. We train this model by optimizing a novel objective that quantifies the degree of match between statistics of the model and ground truth segmentations. Our method allows learning of both the parameters in the tree and the structure itself. We demonstrate on two datasets, including the challenging Berkeley Segmentation Dataset, that our model is able to successfully capture the range of ground truths and to produce novel plausible segmentations beyond those found in the data.

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