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Jaeho Kim

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3 papers

2 author rows

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

AliO: Output Alignment Matters in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Kwangryeol Park
Jaeho Kim
Seulki Lee

Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks, which leverage the current data sequence as input to predict the future sequence, have become increasingly crucial in real-world applications such as weather forecasting and planning of electricity consumption. However, state-of-the-art LTSF models often fail to achieve prediction output alignment for the same timestamps across lagged input sequences. Instead, these models exhibit low output alignment, resulting in fluctuation in prediction outputs for the same timestamps, undermining the model's reliability. To address this, we propose AliO (Align Outputs), a novel approach designed to improve the output alignment of LTSF models by reducing the discrepancies between prediction outputs for the same timestamps in both the time and frequency domains. To measure output alignment, we introduce a new metric, TAM (Time Alignment Metric), which quantifies the alignment between prediction outputs, whereas existing metrics such as MSE only capture the distance between prediction outputs and ground truths. Experimental results show that AliO effectively improves the output alignment, i. e. , up to 58. 2\% in TAM, while maintaining or enhancing the forecasting performance (up to 27. 5\%). This improved output alignment increases the reliability of the LTSF models, making them more applicable in real-world scenarios. The code implementation is on an anonymous GitHub repository.

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ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

PPT: Patch Order Do Matters In Time Series Pretext Task

Jaeho Kim
Kwangryeol Park
Sukmin Yun
Seulki Lee

Recently, patch-based models have been widely discussed in time series analysis. However, existing pretext tasks for patch-based learning, such as masking, may not capture essential time and channel-wise patch interdependencies in time series data, presumed to result in subpar model performance. In this work, we introduce *Patch order-aware Pretext Task (PPT)*, a new self-supervised patch order learning pretext task for time series classification. PPT exploits the intrinsic sequential order information among patches across time and channel dimensions of time series data, where model training is aided by channel-wise patch permutations. The permutation disrupts patch order consistency across time and channel dimensions with controlled intensity to provide supervisory signals for learning time series order characteristics. To this end, we propose two patch order-aware learning methods: patch order consistency learning, which quantifies patch order correctness, and contrastive learning, which distinguishes weakly permuted patch sequences from strongly permuted ones. With patch order learning, we observe enhanced model performance, e.g., improving up to 7% accuracy for the supervised cardiogram task and outperforming mask-based learning by 5% in the self-supervised human activity recognition task. We also propose ACF-CoS, an evaluation metric that measures the *importance of orderness* for time series datasets, which enables pre-examination of the efficacy of PPT in model training.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

TransPL: VQ-Code Transition Matrices for Pseudo-Labeling of Time Series Unsupervised Domain Adaptation

Jaeho Kim
Seulki Lee

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) for time series data remains a critical challenge in deep learning, with traditional pseudo-labeling strategies failing to capture temporal patterns and channel-wise shifts between domains, producing sub-optimal pseudo labels. As such, we introduce TransPL, a novel approach that addresses these limitations by modeling the joint distribution $P(X, y)$ of the source domain through code transition matrices, where the codes are derived from vector quantization (VQ) of time series patches. Our method constructs class- and channel-wise code transition matrices from the source domain and employs Bayes’ rule for target domain adaptation, generating pseudo-labels based on channel-wise weighted class-conditional likelihoods. TransPL offers three key advantages: explicit modeling of temporal transitions and channel-wise shifts between different domains, versatility towards different UDA scenarios (e. g. , weakly-supervised UDA), and explainable pseudo-label generation. We validate TransPL’s effectiveness through extensive analysis on four time series UDA benchmarks and confirm that it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art pseudo-labeling methods by a strong margin (6. 1% accuracy improvement, 4. 9% F1 improvement), while providing interpretable insights into the domain adaptation process through its learned code transition matrices.

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