EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A new closed-loop structure belief rule base for complex systems
- Zongjun Zhang
- Wei He
- Ning Ma
- Hongyu Li
- Guohui Zhou
Reasonable modeling is an important aspect of complex system management and decision-making. Belief rule base (BRB) is a powerful tool for modeling complex systems. In the face of the complexity of the system and the potential risk of failure, the decision support capability of the model is the key to ensure the effectiveness of modeling. However, BRB models for decision support face two problems: the difficulty of balancing the interpretability and accuracy of the process, and the difficulty of tracing the causes of the results. Therefore, a new closed-loop structure BRB (CLBRB) for complex systems is proposed, where the closed-loop structure consists of an interpretable process and traceable results. First, this paper proposes a method to quantify the interpretability of the BRB model. Based on this, three interpretability enhancement strategies and a new assessment metric are proposed to achieve an interpretable adaptive balance between accuracy and interpretability to enhance the interpretability of the process. Second, a new reverse causal inference (RCI-R) model based on reverse causal inference rule matrix (RCRM) and a corresponding rule modeling and inference scheme are proposed to track and parse the influencing factors behind the results and accomplish closed-loop decision-making. The effectiveness and superiority of the CLBRB model are verified by taking the health state assessment of the aerospace relay and lithium-ion battery as examples.