EWRL Workshop 2025 Workshop Paper
Performance Prediction In Reinforcement Learning: The Bad And The Ugly
- Julian Dierkes
- Theresa Eimer
- Marius Lindauer
- Holger Hoos
Reinforcement learning (RL) methods are known to be highly sensitive to their hyperparameter settings and costly to evaluate. In light of this, surrogate models that predict the performance of a given algorithm given a hyperparameter configuration seem an attractive solution for understanding and optimising computationally expensive tasks. In this work, we are studying such surrogates for RL and find that RL methods present a significant challenge to current performance prediction approaches. Specifically, RL landscapes appear to be rugged and noisy, which is reflected in the poor performance of surrogate models. Even if surrogate models are only used for gaining insights into the hyperparameter landscapes and not as replacements for algorithm evaluations in benchmarking, we find that they deviate from the ground truth significantly. Our evaluation highlights the limits of surrogate modelling for RL and cautions against blindly trusting surrogate-based methods for this domain. This calls for more sophisticated solutions for effectively using surrogate models in sequential model-based optimisation of RL hyperparameters.