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Henry Chai

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2 papers

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ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

BINOCULARS for efficient, nonmyopic sequential experimental design

Shali Jiang 0001
Henry Chai
Javier González 0002
Roman Garnett

Finite-horizon sequential experimental design (SED) arises naturally in many contexts, including hyperparameter tuning in machine learning among more traditional settings. Computing the optimal policy for such problems requires solving Bellman equations, which are generally intractable. Most existing work resorts to severely myopic approximations by limiting the decision horizon to only a single time-step, which can underweight exploration in favor of exploitation. We present BINOCULARS: Batch-Informed NOnmyopic Choices, Using Long-horizons for Adaptive, Rapid SED, a general framework for deriving efficient, nonmyopic approximations to the optimal experimental policy. Our key idea is simple and surprisingly effective: we first compute a one-step optimal batch of experiments, then select a single point from this batch to evaluate. We realize BINOCULARS for Bayesian optimization and Bayesian quadrature – two notable example problems with radically different objectives – and demonstrate that BINOCULARS significantly outperforms significantly outperforms myopic alternatives in real-world scenarios.

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ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Automated Model Selection with Bayesian Quadrature

Henry Chai
Jean-Francois Ton
Michael A. Osborne
Roman Garnett

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for computationally expensive models. Although previous research has shown that BQ offers sample efficiency superior to Monte Carlo in computing the evidence of an individual model, applying BQ directly to model comparison may waste computation producing an overly-accurate estimate for the evidence of a clearly poor model. We propose an automated and efficient algorithm for computing the most-relevant quantity for model selection: the posterior model probability. Our technique maximizes the mutual information between this quantity and observations of the models’ likelihoods, yielding efficient sample acquisition across disparate model spaces when likelihood observations are limited. Our method produces more-accurate posterior estimates using fewer likelihood evaluations than standard Bayesian quadrature and Monte Carlo estimators, as we demonstrate on synthetic and real-world examples.

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