EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A hybrid deep learning model integrating interpretability and cloud model for dam deformation and dynamic risk early warning
- Wencheng Wang
- Xiuwen Li
- Hao Wu
- Qiang Yue
Accurate and interpretable deformation prediction remains a critical challenge in the field of intelligent dam health monitoring. To address the limitations of existing deep learning models in generalization capability and decision transparency, this study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework. This framework achieves a deep integration of the Transformer architecture, which captures global dependencies, and the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network, which models local temporal dynamics, thereby significantly enhancing predictive accuracy and generalization. Furthermore, we incorporate Shapley additive explanations and a cloud model to establish an integrated "prediction-attribution-assessment" pipeline. In a case study of a hydraulic hub on the Yellow River's main stream in Ningxia, China, all six developed deformation prediction models demonstrated excellent performance, with a Mean Squared Error below 0. 029 and a Mean Absolute Error below 0. 137, significantly outperforming three other widely-used deep learning models in dam deformation prediction. Shapley additive explanations identified five critical risk-influencing factors, including previous time-step deformation and dam foundation joint opening displacement. The cloud model further enabled the quantitative assessment of dynamic risk evolution. This work facilitates a paradigm shift in dam safety monitoring from "black-box forecasting" towards "transparent decision-making, " offering a solution with both theoretical and practical merits for real-time risk management.