EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
Theory-guided data-driven based on the learning curve for fracturing performance prediction
- Yunjin Wang
- Leyi Zheng
- Gong Chen
- Jianlong Zhang
- Hao Bai
- Hanxuan Song
- Tingxue Jiang
- Fujian Zhou
Accurate and robust prediction of fracturing performance is essential for optimizing fracturing strategies. Here, a fracturing learning curve is proposed based on the fracturing characteristics in Gimsar shale oil, and is used as a theoretical guide to build a theory-guided data-driven (TgDD) model to predict the fracturing performance. The fracturing learning curve is further decomposed into dimensionless trends and local fluctuations. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) were combined to build a CNN-GRU to predict the dimensionless trend. Using adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) integrated random forest (RF) to build an AdaBoost-RF to predict the local fluctuations. The results show that dimensionless trend has time series characteristics. CNN-GRU can extract and select the features, and its prediction ability is 28. 1 % and 12. 9 % higher than that of CNN and GRU. AdaBoost-RF can dynamically adjust the weights, and its prediction ability is about 37% higher than that of the RF. TgDD is more sensitive to engineering parameters. Relative to the direct prediction, the prediction accuracy of the TgDD is improved by 47. 6 %. There are two main reasons for the higher prediction accuracy of TgDD. One is that the dimensionless trend belongs to the time series data, for which the established CNN-GRU model has an extremely strong prediction ability. The second is that the fluctuation amplitude of local fluctuations is reduced, which improves the data quality. The engineering parameters of the newly fractured wells were optimized using TgDD, and its estimated ultimate recovery was improved from 0. 4847 to 0. 4917.