EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A novel fractional order partial grey prediction model with conformable fractional derivative and its application to energy prediction
- Qiong Wang
- Lin Lin
- Guan Wang
- Wei Chen
- Guoping Zhan
Precise regional energy output prediction is key to optimizing the energy structure, promoting clean energy, lessening fossil fuel reliance, and providing an important reference for formulating energy policies and achieving sustainable development. This paper constructs a fractional order partial grey model incorporating a control matrix by combining a partial differential equation, which predicts energy production. First, the new model effectively reduces the random fluctuations in the data by introducing a fractional order accumulation operator, and enhances the ability to handle nonlinear data by leveraging conformable fractional derivatives. At the same time, a control matrix containing exponential and trigonometric functions is used to dynamically adjust parameters, allowing the model to better adapt to various oscillatory data, thereby improving its generalizability. Additionally, the model’s more accurate time response function is obtained through the characteristic curve method, and the optimal parameters of the model are determined using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. Finally, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of the new model from different angles using seven evaluation indicators by simulating and predicting the output of raw coal, gasoline, coalbed methane, and natural gas in nine provinces across China. The results show that the performance of the new model is superior to that of the comparison models, demonstrating its efficacy in forecasting energy production. Ultimately, this novel model is employed to project and assess crude oil production in Jiangsu Province, offering theoretical insights and technical assistance for energy management, economic planning, and environmental conservation.