Author name cluster

Francesco Quinzan

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7 papers

2 author rows

TMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

Double Machine Learning Based Structure Identification from Temporal Data

Emmanouil Angelis
Francesco Quinzan
Ashkan Soleymani
Patrick Jaillet
Stefan Bauer

Learning the causes of time-series data is a fundamental task in many applications, spanning from finance to earth sciences or bio-medical applications. Common approaches for this task are based on vector auto-regression, and they do not take into account unknown confounding between potential causes. However, in settings with many potential causes and noisy data, these approaches may be substantially biased. Furthermore, potential causes may be correlated in practical applications or even contain cycles. To address these challenges, we propose a new double machine learning based method for structure identification from temporal data (DR-SIT). We provide theoretical guarantees, showing that our method asymptotically recovers the true underlying causal structure. Our analysis extends to cases where the potential causes have cycles, and they may even be confounded. We further perform extensive experiments to showcase the superior performance of our method. Code: https://github.com/sdi1100041/TMLR_submission_DR_SIT

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Doubly Robust Alignment for Large Language Models

Erhan Xu
Kai Ye
Hongyi Zhou
Luhan Zhu
Francesco Quinzan
Chengchun Shi

This paper studies reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for aligning large language models with human preferences. While RLHF has demonstrated promising results, many algorithms are highly sensitive to misspecifications in the underlying preference model (e. g. , the Bradley-Terry model), the reference policy, or the reward function, resulting in undesirable fine-tuning. To address model misspecification, we propose a doubly robust preference optimization algorithm that remains consistent when either the preference model or the reference policy is correctly specified (without requiring both). Our proposal demonstrates superior and more robust performance than state-of-the-art algorithms, both in theory and in practice. The code is available at https: //github. com/DRPO4LLM/DRPO4LLM

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TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

Learning Counterfactually Invariant Predictors

Francesco Quinzan
Cecilia Casolo
Krikamol Muandet
Yucen Luo
Niki Kilbertus

Notions of counterfactual invariance (CI) have proven essential for predictors that are fair, robust, and generalizable in the real world. We propose graphical criteria that yield a sufficient condition for a predictor to be counterfactually invariant in terms of a conditional independence in the observational distribution. In order to learn such predictors, we propose a model-agnostic framework, called Counterfactually Invariant Prediction (CIP), building on the Hilbert-Schmidt Conditional Independence Criterion (HSCIC), a kernel-based conditional dependence measure. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various simulated and real-world datasets including scalar and multi-variate settings.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Learning Decision Policies with Instrumental Variables through Double Machine Learning

Daqian Shao
Ashkan Soleymani
Francesco Quinzan
Marta Kwiatkowska

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key uncounfounded variable called the instrument, is a standard technique for learning causal relationships between confounded action, outcome and context variables. Most recent IV regression algorithms use a two-stage approach, where a deep neural network (DNN) estimator learnt in the first stage is directly plugged into the second stage, in which another DNN is used to estimate the causal effect. Naively plugging the estimator can cause heavy bias in the second stage, especially when regularisation bias is present in the first stage estimator. We propose DML-IV, a non-linear IV regression method that reduces the bias in two-stage IV regressions and effectively learns high-performing policies. We derive a novel learning objective to reduce bias and design the DML-IV algorithm following the double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. The learnt DML-IV estimator has strong convergence rate and $O(N^{-1/2})$ suboptimality guarantees that match those when the dataset is unconfounded. DML-IV outperforms state-of-the-art IV regression methods on IV regression benchmarks and learns high-performing policies in the presence of instruments.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

DRCFS: Doubly Robust Causal Feature Selection

Francesco Quinzan
Ashkan Soleymani
Patrick Jaillet
Cristian R. Rojas
Stefan Bauer

Knowing the features of a complex system that are highly relevant to a particular target variable is of fundamental interest in many areas of science. Existing approaches are often limited to linear settings, sometimes lack guarantees, and in most cases, do not scale to the problem at hand, in particular to images. We propose DRCFS, a doubly robust feature selection method for identifying the causal features even in nonlinear and high dimensional settings. We provide theoretical guarantees, illustrate necessary conditions for our assumptions, and perform extensive experiments across a wide range of simulated and semi-synthetic datasets. DRCFS significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, selecting robust features even in challenging highly non-linear and high-dimensional problems.

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ECAI Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Non-Monotone Submodular Maximization with Multiple Knapsacks in Static and Dynamic Settings

Vanja Doskoc
Tobias Friedrich 0001
Andreas Göbel 0001
Aneta Neumann
Frank Neumann 0001
Francesco Quinzan

We study the problem of maximizing a non-monotone submodular function under multiple knapsack constraints. We propose a simple discrete greedy algorithm to approach this problem, and prove that it yields strong approximation guarantees for functions with bounded curvature. In contrast to other heuristics, this does not require problem relaxation to continuous domains and it maintains a constant-factor approximation guarantee in the problem size. In the case of a single knapsack, our analysis suggests that the standard greedy can be used in non-monotone settings. Additionally, we study this problem in a dynamic setting, in which knapsacks change during the optimization process. We modify our greedy algorithm to avoid a complete restart at each constraint update. This modification retains the approximation guarantees of the static case. We evaluate our results experimentally on a video summarization and sensor placement task. We show that our proposed algorithm competes with the state-of-the-art in static settings. Furthermore, we show that in dynamic settings with tight computational time budget, our modified greedy yields significant improvements over starting the greedy from scratch, in terms of the solution quality achieved.

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AAAI Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Greedy Maximization of Functions with Bounded Curvature under Partition Matroid Constraints

Tobias Friedrich
Andreas Göbel
Frank Neumann
Francesco Quinzan
Ralf Rothenberger

We investigate the performance of a deterministic GREEDY algorithm for the problem of maximizing functions under a partition matroid constraint. We consider non-monotone submodular functions and monotone subadditive functions. Even though constrained maximization problems of monotone submodular functions have been extensively studied, little is known about greedy maximization of non-monotone submodular functions or monotone subadditive functions. We give approximation guarantees for GREEDY on these problems, in terms of the curvature. We find that this simple heuristic yields a strong approximation guarantee on a broad class of functions. We discuss the applicability of our results to three real-world problems: Maximizing the determinant function of a positive semidefinite matrix, and related problems such as the maximum entropy sampling problem, the constrained maximum cut problem on directed graphs, and combinatorial auction games. We conclude that GREEDY is well-suited to approach these problems. Overall, we present evidence to support the idea that, when dealing with constrained maximization problems with bounded curvature, one needs not search for (approximate) monotonicity to get good approximate solutions.

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