Author name cluster

Fergus Imrie

Possible papers associated with this exact author name in Arrow. This page groups case-insensitive exact name matches and is not a full identity disambiguation profile.

13 papers

2 author rows

JBHI Journal 2025 Journal Article

Automated Ensemble Multimodal Machine Learning for Healthcare

Fergus Imrie
Stefan Denner
Lucas S. Brunschwig
Klaus Maier-Hein
Mihaela van der Schaar

The application of machine learning in medicine and healthcare has led to the creation of numerous diagnostic and prognostic models. However, despite their success, current approaches generally issue predictions using data from a single modality. This stands in stark contrast with clinician decision-making which employs diverse information from multiple sources. While several multimodal machine learning approaches exist, significant challenges in developing multimodal systems remain that are hindering clinical adoption. In this paper, we introduce a multimodal framework, AutoPrognosis-M, that enables the integration of structured clinical (tabular) data and medical imaging using automated machine learning. AutoPrognosis-M incorporates 17 imaging models, including convolutional neural networks and vision transformers, and three distinct multimodal fusion strategies. In an illustrative application using a multimodal skin lesion dataset, we highlight the importance of multimodal machine learning and the power of combining multiple fusion strategies using ensemble learning. We have open-sourced our framework as a tool for the community and hope it will accelerate the uptake of multimodal machine learning in healthcare and spur further innovation.

Details DOI

NAI Journal 2025 Journal Article

Machine learning with requirements: A manifesto

Eleonora Giunchiglia
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar
Thomas Lukasiewicz

In the recent years, machine learning has made great advancements that have been at the root of many breakthroughs in different application domains. However, it is still an open issue how to make them applicable to high-stakes or safety-critical application domains, as they can often be brittle and unreliable. In this paper, we argue that requirements definition and satisfaction can go a long way to make machine learning models even more fitting to the real world, especially in critical domains. To this end, we present two problems in which (i) requirements arise naturally, (ii) machine learning models are or can be fruitfully deployed, and (iii) neglecting the requirements can have dramatic consequences. Our proposed pyramid development process integrates requirements specification into every stage of the machine learning pipeline, ensuring mutual influence between requirements and subsequent phases. Additionally, we explore the pivotal role of Neuro-symbolic AI in facilitating this integration, paving the way for more reliable and robust machine learning applications in critical domains. Through this approach, we aim to bridge the gap between theoretical advancements and practical implementations, ensuring machine learning’s safe and effective deployment in sensitive areas.

Details DOI

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Stochastic Encodings for Active Feature Acquisition

Alexander Luke Ian Norcliffe
Changhee Lee
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar
Pietro Liò

Active Feature Acquisition is an instance-wise, sequential decision making problem. The aim is to dynamically select which feature to measure based on current observations, independently for each test instance. Common approaches either use Reinforcement Learning, which experiences training difficulties, or greedily maximize the conditional mutual information of the label and unobserved features, which makes myopic acquisitions. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a latent variable model, trained in a supervised manner. Acquisitions are made by reasoning about the features across many possible unobserved realizations in a stochastic latent space. Extensive evaluation on a large range of synthetic and real datasets demonstrates that our approach reliably outperforms a diverse set of baselines.

Details

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

A Neural Framework for Generalized Causal Sensitivity Analysis

Dennis Frauen
Fergus Imrie
Alicia Curth
Valentyn Melnychuk
Stefan Feuerriegel
Mihaela van der Schaar

Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, $f$-sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. This generality is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

Details

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Dissecting Sample Hardness: A Fine-Grained Analysis of Hardness Characterization Methods for Data-Centric AI

Nabeel Seedat
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar

Characterizing samples that are difficult to learn from is crucial to developing highly performant ML models. This has led to numerous Hardness Characterization Methods (HCMs) that aim to identify ''hard'' samples. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding the definition and evaluation of ''hardness''. Unfortunately, current HCMs have only been evaluated on specific types of hardness and often only qualitatively or with respect to downstream performance, overlooking the fundamental quantitative identification task. We address this gap by presenting a fine-grained taxonomy of hardness types. Additionally, we propose the Hardness Characterization Analysis Toolkit (H-CAT), which supports comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking of HCMs across the hardness taxonomy and can easily be extended to new HCMs, hardness types, and datasets. We use H-CAT to evaluate 13 different HCMs across 8 hardness types. This comprehensive evaluation encompassing over 14K setups uncovers strengths and weaknesses of different HCMs, leading to practical tips to guide HCM selection and future development. Our findings highlight the need for more comprehensive HCM evaluation, while we hope our hardness taxonomy and toolkit will advance the principled evaluation and uptake of data-centric AI methods.

Details

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Can You Rely on Your Model Evaluation? Improving Model Evaluation with Synthetic Test Data

Boris van Breugel
Nabeel Seedat
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models on diverse and underrepresented subgroups is essential for ensuring fairness and reliability in real-world applications. However, accurately assessing model performance becomes challenging due to two main issues: (1) a scarcity of test data, especially for small subgroups, and (2) possible distributional shifts in the model's deployment setting, which may not align with the available test data. In this work, we introduce 3S Testing, a deep generative modeling framework to facilitate model evaluation by generating synthetic test sets for small subgroups and simulating distributional shifts. Our experiments demonstrate that 3S-Testing outperforms traditional baselines---including real test data alone---in estimating model performance on minority subgroups and under plausible distributional shifts. In addition, 3S offers intervals around its performance estimates, exhibiting superior coverage of the ground truth compared to existing approaches. Overall, these results raise the question of whether we need a paradigm shift away from limited real test data towards synthetic test data.

PDF Details

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Differentiable and Transportable Structure Learning

Jeroen Berrevoets
Nabeel Seedat
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) encode a lot of information about a particular distribution in their structure. However, compute required to infer these structures is typically super-exponential in the number of variables, as inference requires a sweep of a combinatorially large space of potential structures. That is, until recent advances made it possible to search this space using a differentiable metric, drastically reducing search time. While this technique— named NOTEARS —is widely considered a seminal work in DAG-discovery, it concedes an important property in favour of differentiability: transportability. To be transportable, the structures discovered on one dataset must apply to another dataset from the same domain. We introduce D-Struct which recovers transportability in the discovered structures through a novel architecture and loss function while remaining fully differentiable. Because D-Struct remains differentiable, our method can be easily adopted in existing differentiable architectures, as was previously done with NOTEARS. In our experiments, we empirically validate D-Struct with respect to edge accuracy and structural Hamming distance in a variety of settings.

Details

ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

TANGOS: Regularizing Tabular Neural Networks through Gradient Orthogonalization and Specialization

Alan Jeffares
Tennison Liu
Jonathan Crabbé
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar

Despite their success with unstructured data, deep neural networks are not yet a panacea for structured tabular data. In the tabular domain, their efficiency crucially relies on various forms of regularization to prevent overfitting and provide strong generalization performance. Existing regularization techniques include broad modelling decisions such as choice of architecture, loss functions, and optimization methods. In this work, we introduce Tabular Neural Gradient Orthogonalization and Specialization (TANGOS), a novel framework for regularization in the tabular setting built on latent unit attributions. The gradient attribution of an activation with respect to a given input feature suggests how the neuron attends to that feature, and is often employed to interpret the predictions of deep networks. In TANGOS, we take a different approach and incorporate neuron attributions directly into training to encourage orthogonalization and specialization of latent attributions in a fully-connected network. Our regularizer encourages neurons to focus on sparse, non-overlapping input features and results in a set of diverse and specialized latent units. In the tabular domain, we demonstrate that our approach can lead to improved out-of-sample generalization performance, outperforming other popular regularization methods. We provide insight into why our regularizer is effective and demonstrate that TANGOS can be applied jointly with existing methods to achieve even greater generalization performance.

Details

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Composite Feature Selection Using Deep Ensembles

Fergus Imrie
Alexander Norcliffe
Pietro Lió
Mihaela van der Schaar

In many real world problems, features do not act alone but in combination with each other. For example, in genomics, diseases might not be caused by any single mutation but require the presence of multiple mutations. Prior work on feature selection either seeks to identify individual features or can only determine relevant groups from a predefined set. We investigate the problem of discovering groups of predictive features without predefined grouping. To do so, we define predictive groups in terms of linear and non-linear interactions between features. We introduce a novel deep learning architecture that uses an ensemble of feature selection models to find predictive groups, without requiring candidate groups to be provided. The selected groups are sparse and exhibit minimum overlap. Furthermore, we propose a new metric to measure similarity between discovered groups and the ground truth. We demonstrate the utility our model on multiple synthetic tasks and semi-synthetic chemistry datasets, where the ground truth structure is known, as well as an image dataset and a real-world cancer dataset.

PDF Details

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Continuous-Time Modeling of Counterfactual Outcomes Using Neural Controlled Differential Equations

Nabeel Seedat
Fergus Imrie
Alexis Bellot
Zhaozhi Qian
Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer "what-if" questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time intervals between observations and treatment decisions and hence are unable to naturally model irregularly sampled data, which is the common setting in practice. To handle arbitrary observation patterns, we interpret the data as samples from an underlying continuous-time process and propose to model its latent trajectory explicitly using the mathematics of controlled differential equations. This leads to a new approach, the Treatment Effect Neural Controlled Differential Equation (TE-CDE), that allows the potential outcomes to be evaluated at any time point. In addition, adversarial training is used to adjust for time-dependent confounding which is critical in longitudinal settings and is an added challenge not encountered in conventional time series. To assess solutions to this problem, we propose a controllable simulation environment based on a model of tumor growth for a range of scenarios with irregular sampling reflective of a variety of clinical scenarios. TE-CDE consistently outperforms existing approaches in all scenarios with irregular sampling.

Details

ICLR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Self-Supervision Enhanced Feature Selection with Correlated Gates

Changhee Lee
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar

Discovering relevant input features for predicting a target variable is a key scientific question. However, in many domains, such as medicine and biology, feature selection is confounded by a scarcity of labeled samples coupled with significant correlations among features. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning approach to feature selection that addresses both challenges simultaneously. First, we pre-train the network using unlabeled samples within a self-supervised learning framework by solving pretext tasks that require the network to learn informative representations from partial feature sets. Then, we fine-tune the pre-trained network to discover relevant features using labeled samples. During both training phases, we explicitly account for the correlation structure of the input features by generating correlated gate vectors from a multivariate Bernoulli distribution. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets including clinical and omics demonstrate that our model discovers relevant features that provide superior prediction performance compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks in practical scenarios where there is often limited labeled data and high correlations among features.

Details

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Closing the loop in medical decision support by understanding clinical decision-making: A case study on organ transplantation

Yuchao Qin
Fergus Imrie
Alihan Hüyük
Daniel Jarrett
alexander gimson
Mihaela van der Schaar

Significant effort has been placed on developing decision support tools to improve patient care. However, drivers of real-world clinical decisions in complex medical scenarios are not yet well-understood, resulting in substantial gaps between these tools and practical applications. In light of this, we highlight that more attention on understanding clinical decision-making is required both to elucidate current clinical practices and to enable effective human-machine interactions. This is imperative in high-stakes scenarios with scarce available resources. Using organ transplantation as a case study, we formalize the desiderata of methods for understanding clinical decision-making. We show that most existing machine learning methods are insufficient to meet these requirements and propose iTransplant, a novel data-driven framework to learn the factors affecting decisions on organ offers in an instance-wise fashion directly from clinical data, as a possible solution. Through experiments on real-world liver transplantation data from OPTN, we demonstrate the use of iTransplant to: (1) discover which criteria are most important to clinicians for organ offer acceptance; (2) identify patient-specific organ preferences of clinicians allowing automatic patient stratification; and (3) explore variations in transplantation practices between different transplant centers. Finally, we emphasize that the insights gained by iTransplant can be used to inform the development of future decision support tools.

PDF Details

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Explaining Latent Representations with a Corpus of Examples

Jonathan Crabbe
Zhaozhi Qian
Fergus Imrie
Mihaela van der Schaar

Modern machine learning models are complicated. Most of them rely on convoluted latent representations of their input to issue a prediction. To achieve greater transparency than a black-box that connects inputs to predictions, it is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of these latent representations. To that aim, we propose SimplEx: a user-centred method that provides example-based explanations with reference to a freely selected set of examples, called the corpus. SimplEx uses the corpus to improve the user’s understanding of the latent space with post-hoc explanations answering two questions: (1) Which corpus examples explain the prediction issued for a given test example? (2) What features of these corpus examples are relevant for the model to relate them to the test example? SimplEx provides an answer by reconstructing the test latent representation as a mixture of corpus latent representations. Further, we propose a novel approach, the integrated Jacobian, that allows SimplEx to make explicit the contribution of each corpus feature in the mixture. Through experiments on tasks ranging from mortality prediction to image classification, we demonstrate that these decompositions are robust and accurate. With illustrative use cases in medicine, we show that SimplEx empowers the user by highlighting relevant patterns in the corpus that explain model representations. Moreover, we demonstrate how the freedom in choosing the corpus allows the user to have personalized explanations in terms of examples that are meaningful for them.

PDF Details