EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
FishMotionNet: Integrating hydrological factors and fishing motion patterns for enhanced vessel trajectory prediction
- Guitong Yang
- Guiyuan Jiang
- Jiaqi Yang
- Feng Hong
- Peilan He
- Zhongning Zhao
Fisheries resources are vital to global economies, particularly in coastal regions, yet overfishing and increased maritime accidents present significant challenges. Accurate prediction of fishing vessel trajectories is essential for optimizing operations, ensuring sustainable resource use, and enhancing maritime safety. Existing models primarily focus on commercial vessels and are inadequate for the dynamic and irregular patterns of fishing vessels, which frequently switch between navigation and fishing modes with complex maneuvers. This study proposes FishMotionNet, a novel deep learning model integrating Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data with similar historical trajectories, regional behavioral features, and hydrological factors. Using 90-minute observations, FishMotionNet leverages similar trajectories to capture intricate vessel motion behaviors and predicts 90-minute future trajectories. The model incorporates environmental influences through sea surface height, temperature, salinity, and ocean currents, with an encoder–decoder architecture enhancing complex trajectory pattern learning. Experiments using a comprehensive VMS dataset from the Beidou satellite comprising 1855 trawlers in the East China Sea (September 2016-December 2017) with hydrological data from Copernicus Climate Database showed that over a 90-minute prediction horizon, FishMotionNet achieved an average prediction error of 0. 815 nautical miles and a final displacement error of 1. 403 nautical miles, achieving 14. 7% and 16. 7% improvements over the best baseline model, with consistent superior performance across 30-minute and 60-minute prediction horizons, significantly outperforming baseline models. FishMotionNet effectively addresses the unique challenges of fishing vessel trajectory prediction, offering a valuable tool for fisheries management and maritime safety, and contributing to the sustainable exploitation of marine resources.