EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
An explainable machine learning framework for long-term spatiotemporal incident modeling in expanding urban rail networks
- Pengcheng Li
- Linmu Zou
- Zijia Wang
- Yadi Zhu
- Lu Zhao
- Feng Chen
Urban rail transit has become a cornerstone of public transportation in major cities. However, as these systems have grown more complex, incidents disrupting operations have become more frequent, reducing travel efficiency and posing risks to passenger safety. This study introduces an interpretable machine learning framework for analyzing trends in transit incidents over the past decade, using data from the Beijing Subway collected from 2013 to 2022. Twelve indicators across four categories—structural, topological, operational, and weather-related—were examined, and both traditional regression and advanced machine learning models were applied to model long-term trends. Model evaluation indicates that the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model best captures the relationships between these factors and line safety, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0. 8167 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 4. 6929. Interpretability analyses reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics and mechanisms driving incident occurrences. Operational characteristics and network centrality are the primary determinants of incident frequency, accounting for 37. 6 % and 26. 1 %, respectively. Temporal patterns show that the influence of operational features grew by about 3 % before 2019 but declined by 8 % from 2019 to 2022, while structural features have steadily increased by about 6 % in importance over the past decade. These insights can guide the optimal allocation of safety resources, ultimately enhancing the security and efficiency of urban rail transit systems.