Fabio Ramos

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Diversifying Parallel Ergodic Search: A Signature Kernel Evolution Strategy

• Sreevardhan Sirigiri
• Christian Hughes
• Ian Abraham
• Fabio Ramos

Effective robotic exploration in continuous domains requires planning trajectories that maximize coverage over a predefined region. A recent development, Stein Variational Ergodic Search (SVES), proposed parallel ergodic exploration (a key approach within the field of robotic exploration), via Stein variational inference that computes a set of candidate trajectories approximating the posterior distribution over the solution space trajectories. While this approach leverages GPU parallelism well, the trajectories in the set might not be distinct enough, leading to a suboptimal set. In this paper, we propose two key methods to diversify the solution set of this approach. First, we leverage the signature kernel within the SVES framework, introducing a pathwise, sequence-sensitive interaction that preserves the Markovian structure of the trajectories and naturally spreads paths across distinct regions of the search space. Second, we propose a derivative-free evolution-strategy interpretation of SVES that exploits batched, GPU-friendly fitness evaluations and can be paired with approximate gradients whenever analytic gradients of the kernel are unavailable or computationally intractable. The resulting method both retains SVES’s advantages while diversifying the solution set and extending its reach to black-box objectives. Across planar forest search, 3D quadrotor coverage, and model-predictive control benchmarks, our approach consistently reduces ergodic cost and produces markedly richer trajectory sets than SVES without significant extra tuning effort.

AAAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Building Continuous Occupancy Maps With Moving Robots

• Ransalu Senanayake
• Fabio Ramos

Mapping the occupancy level of an environment is important for a robot to navigate in unknown and unstructured environments. To this end, continuous occupancy mapping techniques which express the probability of a location as a function are used. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis to compare and contrast the two major branches of Bayesian continuous occupancy mapping techniques— Gaussian process occupancy maps and Bayesian Hilbert maps—considering the fact that both utilize kernel functions to operate in a rich high-dimensional implicit feature space and use variational inference to learn parameters. Then, we extend the recent Bayesian Hilbert maps framework which is so far only used for stationary robots, to map large environments with moving robots. Finally, we propose convolution of kernels as a powerful tool to improve different aspects of continuous occupancy mapping. Our claims are also experimentally validated with both simulated and real-world datasets.

AAAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Fourier Feature Approximations for Periodic Kernels in Time-Series Modelling

• Anthony Tompkins
• Fabio Ramos

Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide an extremely powerful mechanism to model a variety of problems but incur an O(N3 ) complexity in the number of data samples. Common approximation methods rely on what are often termed inducing points but still typically incur an O(NM2 ) complexity in the data and corresponding inducing points. Using Random Fourier Feature (RFF) maps, we overcome this by transforming the problem into a Bayesian Linear Regression formulation upon which we apply a Bayesian Variational treatment that also allows learning the corresponding kernel hyperparameters, likelihood and noise parameters. In this paper we introduce an alternative method using Fourier series to obtain spectral representations of common kernels, in particular for periodic warpings, which surprisingly have a convergent, non-random form using special functions, requiring fewer spectral features to approximate their corresponding kernel to high accuracy. Using this, we can fuse the Random Fourier Feature spectral representations of common kernels with their periodic counterparts to show how they can more effectively and expressively learn patterns in time-series for both interpolation and extrapolation. This method combines robustness, scalability and equally importantly, interpretability through a symbolic declarative grammar that is both functionally and humanly intuitive - a property that is crucial for explainable decision making. Using probabilistic programming and Variational Inference we are able to efficiently optimise over these rich functional representations. We show significantly improved Gram matrix approximation errors, and also demonstrate the method in several time-series problems comparing other commonly used approaches such as recurrent neural networks.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Integrated accounts of behavioral and neuroimaging data using flexible recurrent neural network models

• Amir Dezfouli
• Richard Morris
• Fabio Ramos
• Peter Dayan
• Bernard Balleine

Neuroscience studies of human decision-making abilities commonly involve subjects completing a decision-making task while BOLD signals are recorded using fMRI. Hypotheses are tested about which brain regions mediate the effect of past experience, such as rewards, on future actions. One standard approach to this is model-based fMRI data analysis, in which a model is fitted to the behavioral data, i. e. , a subject's choices, and then the neural data are parsed to find brain regions whose BOLD signals are related to the model's internal signals. However, the internal mechanics of such purely behavioral models are not constrained by the neural data, and therefore might miss or mischaracterize aspects of the brain. To address this limitation, we introduce a new method using recurrent neural network models that are flexible enough to be jointly fitted to the behavioral and neural data. We trained a model so that its internal states were suitably related to neural activity during the task, while at the same time its output predicted the next action a subject would execute. We then used the fitted model to create a novel visualization of the relationship between the activity in brain regions at different times following a reward and the choices the subject subsequently made. Finally, we validated our method using a previously published dataset. We found that the model was able to recover the underlying neural substrates that were discovered by explicit model engineering in the previous work, and also derived new results regarding the temporal pattern of brain activity.

AAAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Iterative Continuous Convolution for 3D Template Matching and Global Localization

• Vitor Guizilini
• Fabio Ramos

This paper introduces a novel methodology for 3D template matching that is scalable to higher-dimensional spaces and larger kernel sizes. It uses the Hilbert Maps framework to model raw pointcloud information as a continuous occupancy function, and we derive a closed-form solution to the convolution operation that takes place directly in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space defining these functions. The result is a third function modeling activation values, that can be queried at arbitrary resolutions with logarithmic complexity, and by iteratively searching for high similarity areas we can determine matching candidates. Experimental results show substantial speed gains over standard discrete convolution techniques, such as sliding window and fast Fourier transform, along with a significant decrease in memory requirements, without accuracy loss. This efficiency allows the proposed methodology to be used in areas where discrete convolution is currently infeasible. As a practical example we explore the key problem in robotics of global localization, in which a vehicle must be positioned on a map using only its current sensor information, and provide comparisons with other state-of-the-art techniques in terms of computational speed and accuracy.

AAAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Unsupervised Feature Learning for 3D Scene Reconstruction with Occupancy Maps

• Vitor Guizilini
• Fabio Ramos

This paper addresses the task of unsupervised feature learning for three-dimensional occupancy mapping, as a way to segment higher-level structures based on raw unorganized point cloud data. In particular, we focus on detecting planar surfaces, which are common in most structured or semistructured environments. This segmentation is then used to minimize the amount of parameters necessary to properly create a 3D occupancy model of the surveyed space, thus increasing computational speed and decreasing memory requirements. As the 3D modeling tool, an extension to Hilbert Maps (Ramos and Ott 2015) recently proposed in (Guizilini and Ramos 2016) was selected, since it naturally uses a feature-based representation of the environment to achieve real-time performance. Experiments conducted in simulated and real large-scale datasets show a substantial gain in performance, while decreasing the amount of stored information by orders of magnitude without sacrificing accuracy.

AAAI Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Predicting Spatio-Temporal Propagation of Seasonal Influenza Using Variational Gaussian Process Regression

• Ransalu Senanayake
• Simon O'Callaghan
• Fabio Ramos

Understanding and predicting how influenza propagates is vital to reduce its impact. In this paper we develop a nonparametric model based on Gaussian process (GP) regression to capture the complex spatial and temporal dependencies present in the data. A stochastic variational inference approach was adopted to address scalability. Rather than modeling the problem as a time-series as in many studies, we capture the space-time dependencies by combining different kernels. A kernel averaging technique which converts spatiallydiffused point processes to an area process is proposed to model geographical distribution. Additionally, to accurately model the variable behavior of the time-series, the GP kernel is further modified to account for non-stationarity and seasonality. Experimental results on two datasets of state-wide US weekly flu-counts consisting of 19, 698 and 89, 474 data points, ranging over several years, illustrate the robustness of the model as a tool for further epidemiological investigations.

NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Spatio-Temporal Hilbert Maps for Continuous Occupancy Representation in Dynamic Environments

• Ransalu Senanayake
• Lionel Ott
• Simon O'Callaghan
• Fabio Ramos

We consider the problem of building continuous occupancy representations in dynamic environments for robotics applications. The problem has hardly been discussed previously due to the complexity of patterns in urban environments, which have both spatial and temporal dependencies. We address the problem as learning a kernel classifier on an efficient feature space. The key novelty of our approach is the incorporation of variations in the time domain into the spatial domain. We propose a method to propagate motion uncertainty into the kernel using a hierarchical model. The main benefit of this approach is that it can directly predict the occupancy state of the map in the future from past observations, being a valuable tool for robot trajectory planning under uncertainty. Our approach preserves the main computational benefits of static Hilbert maps — using stochastic gradient descent for fast optimization of model parameters and incremental updates as new data are captured. Experiments conducted in road intersections of an urban environment demonstrated that spatio-temporal Hilbert maps can accurately model changes in the map while outperforming other techniques on various aspects.

AAAI Conference 2015 Conference Paper

A Nonparametric Online Model for Air Quality Prediction

• Vitor Guizilini
• Fabio Ramos

We introduce a novel method for the continuous online prediction of particulate matter in the air (more specifically, PM10 and PM2. 5) given sparse sensor information. A nonparametric model is developed using Gaussian Processes, which eschews the need for an explicit formulation of internal – and usually very complex – dependencies between meteorological variables. Instead, it uses historical data to extrapolate pollutant values both spatially (in areas with no sensor information) and temporally (the near future). Each prediction also contains a respective variance, indicating its uncertainty level and thus allowing a probabilistic treatment of results. A novel training methodology (Structural Cross- Validation) is presented, which preserves the spatiotemporal structure of available data during the hyperparameter optimization process. Tests were conducted using a real-time feed from a sensor network in an area of roughly 50 × 80 km, alongside comparisons with other techniques for air pollution prediction. The promising results motivated the development of a smartphone applicative and a website, currently in use to increase the efficiency of air quality monitoring and control in the area.

AAAI Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Variational Inference for Nonparametric Bayesian Quantile Regression

• Sachinthaka Abeywardana
• Fabio Ramos

Quantile regression deals with the problem of computing robust estimators when the conditional mean and standard deviation of the predicted function are inadequate to capture its variability. The technique has an extensive list of applications, including health sciences, ecology and finance. In this work we present a nonparametric method of inferring quantiles and derive a novel Variational Bayesian (VB) approximation to the marginal likelihood, leading to an elegant Expectation Maximisation algorithm for learning the model. Our method is nonparametric, has strong convergence guarantees, and can deal with nonsymmetric quantiles seamlessly. We compare the method to other parametric and non-parametric Bayesian techniques, and alternative approximations based on expectation propagation demonstrating the benefits of our framework in toy problems and real datasets.

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

On Integrated Clustering and Outlier Detection

• Lionel Ott
• Linsey Pang
• Fabio Ramos
• Sanjay Chawla

We model the joint clustering and outlier detection problem using an extension of the facility location formulation. The advantages of combining clustering and outlier selection include: (i) the resulting clusters tend to be compact and semantically coherent (ii) the clusters are more robust against data perturbations and (iii) the outliers are contextualised by the clusters and more interpretable. We provide a practical subgradient-based algorithm for the problem and also study the theoretical properties of algorithm in terms of approximation and convergence. Extensive evaluation on synthetic and real data sets attest to both the quality and scalability of our proposed method.

IJCAI Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Bayesian Joint Inversions for the Exploration of Earth Resources

• Alistair Reid
• Simon O'Callaghan
• Edwin V. Bonilla
• Lachlan McCalman
• Tim Rawling
• Fabio Ramos

We propose a machine learning approach to geophysical inversion problems for the exploration of earth resources. Our approach is based on nonparametric Bayesian methods, specifically, Gaussian processes, and provides a full distribution over the predicted geophysical properties whilst enabling the incorporation of data from different modalities. We assess our method both qualitatively and quantitatively using a real dataset from South Australia containing gravity and drill-hole data and through simulated experiments involving gravity, drill-holes and magnetics, with the goal of characterizing rock densities. The significance of our probabilistic inversion extends to general exploration problems with potential to dramatically benefit the industry.

AAAI Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Learning Non-Stationary Space-Time Models for Environmental Monitoring

• Sahil Garg
• Amarjeet Singh
• Fabio Ramos

One of the primary aspects of sustainable development involves accurate understanding and modeling of environmental phenomena. Many of these phenomena exhibit variations in both space and time and it is imperative to develop a deeper understanding of techniques that can model space-time dynamics accurately. In this paper we propose NOSTILL-GP - NOn-stationary Space TIme variable Latent Length scale GP, a generic non-stationary, spatio-temporal Gaussian Process (GP) model. We present several strategies, for efficient training of our model, necessary for real-world applicability. Extensive empirical validation is performed using three real-world environmental monitoring datasets, with diverse dynamics across space and time. Results from the experiments clearly demonstrate general applicability and effectiveness of our approach for applications in environmental monitoring.

AAAI Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Continuous Occupancy Mapping with Integral Kernels

• Simon O'Callaghan
• Fabio Ramos

We address the problem of building a continuous occupancy representation of the environment with ranging sensors. Observations from such sensors provide two types of information: a line segment or a beam indicating no returns along them (free-space); a point or return at the end of the segment representing an occupied surface. To model these two types of observations in a principled statistical manner, we propose a novel methodology based on integral kernels. We show that integral kernels can be directly incorporated into a Gaussian process classification (GPC) framework to provide a continuous non-parametric Bayesian estimation of occupancy. Directly handling line segment and point observations avoids the need to discretise segments into points, reducing the computational cost of GPC inference and learning. We present experiments on 2D and 3D datasets demonstrating the benefits of the approach.

IJCAI Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Learning 3D Geological Structure from Drill-Rig Sensors for Automated Mining

• Sildomar T. Monteiro
• Joop van de Ven
• Fabio Ramos
• Peter Hatherly

This paper addresses one of the key components of the mining process: the geological prediction of natural resources from spatially distributed measurements. We present a novel approach combining undirected graphical models with ensemble classifiers to provide 3D geological models from multiple sensors installed in an autonomous drill rig. Drill sensor measurements used for drilling automation, known as measurement-while-drilling (MWD) data, have the potential to provide an estimate of the geological properties of the rocks being drilled. The proposed method maps MWD parameters to rock types while considering spatial relationships, i. e. , associating measurements obtained from neighboring regions. We use a conditional random field with local information provided by boosted decision trees to jointly reason about the rock categories of neighboring measurements. To validate the approach, MWD data was collected from a drill rig operating at an iron ore mine. Graphical models of the 3D structure present in real data sets possess a high number of nodes, edges and cycles, making them intractable for exact inference. We provide a comparison of three approximate inference methods to calculate the most probable distribution of class labels. The empirical results demonstrate the benefits of spatial modeling through graphical models to improve classification performance.

IJCAI Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Multi-Kernel Gaussian Processes

• Arman Melkumyan
• Fabio Ramos

Multi-task learning remains a difficult yet important problem in machine learning. In Gaussian processes the main challenge is the definition of valid kernels (covariance functions) able to capture the relationships between different tasks. This paper presents a novel methodology to construct valid multi-task covariance functions (Mercer kernels) for Gaussian processes allowing for a combination of kernels with different forms. The method is based on Fourier analysis and is general for arbitrary stationary covariance functions. Analytical solutions for cross covariance terms between popular forms are provided including Mat´ ern, squared exponential and sparse covariance functions. Experiments are conducted with both artificial and real datasets demonstrating the benefits of the approach.

IJCAI Conference 2009 Conference Paper

• Arman Melkumyan
• Fabio Ramos

Despite the success of Gaussian processes (GPs) in modelling spatial stochastic processes, dealing with large datasets is still challenging. The problem arises by the need to invert a potentially large covariance matrix during inference. In this paper we address the complexity problem by constructing a new stationary covariance function (Mercer kernel) that naturally provides a sparse covariance matrix. The sparseness of the matrix is defined by hyperparameters optimised during learning. The new covariance function enables exact GP inference and performs comparatively to the squared-exponential one, at a lower computational cost. This allows the application of GPs to large-scale problems such as ore grade prediction in mining or 3D surface modelling. Experiments show that using the proposed covariance function, very sparse covariance matrices are normally obtained which can be effectively used for faster inference and less memory usage.