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Erik Sudderth

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26 papers
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26

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Learning to be Smooth: An End-to-End Differentiable Particle Smoother

  • Ali Younis
  • Erik Sudderth

For challenging state estimation problems arising in domains like vision and robotics, particle-based representations attractively enable temporal reasoning about multiple posterior modes. Particle smoothers offer the potential for more accurate offline data analysis by propagating information both forward and backward in time, but have classically required human-engineered dynamics and observation models. Extending recent advances in discriminative training of particle filters, we develop a framework for low-variance propagation of gradients across long time sequences when training particle smoothers. Our "two-filter" smoother integrates particle streams that are propagated forward and backward in time, while incorporating stratification and importance weights in the resampling step to provide low-variance gradient estimates for neural network dynamics and observation models. The resulting mixture density particle smoother is substantially more accurate than state-of-the-art particle filters, as well as search-based baselines, for city-scale global vehicle localization from real-world videos and maps.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Differentiable and Stable Long-Range Tracking of Multiple Posterior Modes

  • Ali Younis
  • Erik Sudderth

Particle filters flexibly represent multiple posterior modes nonparametrically, via a collection of weighted samples, but have classically been applied to tracking problems with known dynamics and observation likelihoods. Such generative models may be inaccurate or unavailable for high-dimensional observations like images. We instead leverage training data to discriminatively learn particle-based representations of uncertainty in latent object states, conditioned on arbitrary observations via deep neural network encoders. While prior discriminative particle filters have used heuristic relaxations of discrete particle resampling, or biased learning by truncating gradients at resampling steps, we achieve unbiased and low-variance gradient estimates by representing posteriors as continuous mixture densities. Our theory and experiments expose dramatic failures of existing reparameterization-based estimators for mixture gradients, an issue we address via an importance-sampling gradient estimator. Unlike standard recurrent neural networks, our mixture density particle filter represents multimodal uncertainty in continuous latent states, improving accuracy and robustness. On a range of challenging tracking and robot localization problems, our approach achieves dramatic improvements in accuracy, will also showing much greater stability across multiple training runs.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Unbiased learning of deep generative models with structured discrete representations

  • Henry C Bendekgey
  • Gabe Hope
  • Erik Sudderth

By composing graphical models with deep learning architectures, we learn generative models with the strengths of both frameworks. The structured variational autoencoder (SVAE) inherits structure and interpretability from graphical models, and flexible likelihoods for high-dimensional data from deep learning, but poses substantial optimization challenges. We propose novel algorithms for learning SVAEs, and are the first to demonstrate the SVAE's ability to handle multimodal uncertainty when data is missing by incorporating discrete latent variables. Our memory-efficient implicit differentiation scheme makes the SVAE tractable to learn via gradient descent, while demonstrating robustness to incomplete optimization. To more rapidly learn accurate graphical model parameters, we derive a method for computing natural gradients without manual derivations, which avoids biases found in prior work. These optimization innovations enable the first comparisons of the SVAE to state-of-the-art time series models, where the SVAE performs competitively while learning interpretable and structured discrete data representations.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Thinned random measures for sparse graphs with overlapping communities

  • Federica Zoe Ricci
  • Michele Guindani
  • Erik Sudderth

Network models for exchangeable arrays, including most stochastic block models, generate dense graphs with a limited ability to capture many characteristics of real-world social and biological networks. A class of models based on completely random measures like the generalized gamma process (GGP) have recently addressed some of these limitations. We propose a framework for thinning edges from realizations of GGP random graphs that models observed links via nodes' overall propensity to interact, as well as the similarity of node memberships within a large set of latent communities. Our formulation allows us to learn the number of communities from data, and enables efficient Monte Carlo methods that scale linearly with the number of observed edges, and thus (unlike dense block models) sub-quadratically with the number of entities or nodes. We compare to alternative models for both dense and sparse networks, and demonstrate effective recovery of latent community structure for real-world networks with thousands of nodes.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Scalable and Stable Surrogates for Flexible Classifiers with Fairness Constraints

  • Henry C Bendekgey
  • Erik Sudderth

We investigate how fairness relaxations scale to flexible classifiers like deep neural networks for images and text. We analyze an easy-to-use and robust way of imposing fairness constraints when training, and through this framework prove that some prior fairness surrogates exhibit degeneracies for non-convex models. We resolve these problems via three new surrogates: an adaptive data re-weighting, and two smooth upper-bounds that are provably more robust than some previous methods. Our surrogates perform comparably to the state-of-the-art on low-dimensional fairness benchmarks, while achieving superior accuracy and stability for more complex computer vision and natural language processing tasks.

NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Multiscale Semi-Markov Dynamics for Intracortical Brain-Computer Interfaces

  • Daniel Milstein
  • Jason Pacheco
  • Leigh Hochberg
  • John Simeral
  • Beata Jarosiewicz
  • Erik Sudderth

Intracortical brain-computer interfaces (iBCIs) have allowed people with tetraplegia to control a computer cursor by imagining the movement of their paralyzed arm or hand. State-of-the-art decoders deployed in human iBCIs are derived from a Kalman filter that assumes Markov dynamics on the angle of intended movement, and a unimodal dependence on intended angle for each channel of neural activity. Due to errors made in the decoding of noisy neural data, as a user attempts to move the cursor to a goal, the angle between cursor and goal positions may change rapidly. We propose a dynamic Bayesian network that includes the on-screen goal position as part of its latent state, and thus allows the person’s intended angle of movement to be aggregated over a much longer history of neural activity. This multiscale model explicitly captures the relationship between instantaneous angles of motion and long-term goals, and incorporates semi-Markov dynamics for motion trajectories. We also introduce a multimodal likelihood model for recordings of neural populations which can be rapidly calibrated for clinical applications. In offline experiments with recorded neural data, we demonstrate significantly improved prediction of motion directions compared to the Kalman filter. We derive an efficient online inference algorithm, enabling a clinical trial participant with tetraplegia to control a computer cursor with neural activity in real time. The observed kinematics of cursor movement are objectively straighter and smoother than prior iBCI decoding models without loss of responsiveness.

NeurIPS Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Scalable Adaptation of State Complexity for Nonparametric Hidden Markov Models

  • Michael Hughes
  • William Stephenson
  • Erik Sudderth

Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models are typically learned via fixed truncations of the infinite state space or local Monte Carlo proposals that make small changes to the state space. We develop an inference algorithm for the sticky hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model that scales to big datasets by processing a few sequences at a time yet allows rapid adaptation of the state space cardinality. Unlike previous point-estimate methods, our novel variational bound penalizes redundant or irrelevant states and thus enables optimization of the state space. Our birth proposals use observed data statistics to create useful new states that escape local optima. Merge and delete proposals remove ineffective states to yield simpler models with more affordable future computations. Experiments on speaker diarization, motion capture, and epigenetic chromatin datasets discover models that are more compact, more interpretable, and better aligned to ground truth segmentations than competitors. We have released an open-source Python implementation which can parallelize local inference steps across sequences.

NeurIPS Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Efficient Online Inference for Bayesian Nonparametric Relational Models

  • Dae Il Kim
  • Prem Gopalan
  • David Blei
  • Erik Sudderth

Stochastic block models characterize observed network relationships via latent community memberships. In large social networks, we expect entities to participate in multiple communities, and the number of communities to grow with the network size. We introduce a new model for these phenomena, the hierarchical Dirichlet process relational model, which allows nodes to have mixed membership in an unbounded set of communities. To allow scalable learning, we derive an online stochastic variational inference algorithm. Focusing on assortative models of undirected networks, we also propose an efficient structured mean field variational bound, and online methods for automatically pruning unused communities. Compared to state-of-the-art online learning methods for parametric relational models, we show significantly improved perplexity and link prediction accuracy for sparse networks with tens of thousands of nodes. We also showcase an analysis of LittleSis, a large network of who-knows-who at the heights of business and government.

NeurIPS Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Memoized Online Variational Inference for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models

  • Michael Hughes
  • Erik Sudderth

Variational inference algorithms provide the most effective framework for large-scale training of Bayesian nonparametric models. Stochastic online approaches are promising, but are sensitive to the chosen learning rate and often converge to poor local optima. We present a new algorithm, memoized online variational inference, which scales to very large (yet finite) datasets while avoiding the complexities of stochastic gradient. Our algorithm maintains finite-dimensional sufficient statistics from batches of the full dataset, requiring some additional memory but still scaling to millions of examples. Exploiting nested families of variational bounds for infinite nonparametric models, we develop principled birth and merge moves allowing non-local optimization. Births adaptively add components to the model to escape local optima, while merges remove redundancy and improve speed. Using Dirichlet process mixture models for image clustering and denoising, we demonstrate major improvements in robustness and accuracy.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Effective Split-Merge Monte Carlo Methods for Nonparametric Models of Sequential Data

  • Michael Hughes
  • Emily Fox
  • Erik Sudderth

Applications of Bayesian nonparametric methods require learning and inference algorithms which efficiently explore models of unbounded complexity. We develop new Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for the beta process hidden Markov model (BP-HMM), enabling discovery of shared activity patterns in large video and motion capture databases. By introducing split-merge moves based on sequential allocation, we allow large global changes in the shared feature structure. We also develop data-driven reversible jump moves which more reliably discover rare or unique behaviors. Our proposals apply to any choice of conjugate likelihood for observed data, and we show success with multinomial, Gaussian, and autoregressive emission models. Together, these innovations allow tractable analysis of hundreds of time series, where previous inference required clever initialization and at least ten thousand burn-in iterations for just six sequences.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

From Deformations to Parts: Motion-based Segmentation of 3D Objects

  • Soumya Ghosh
  • Matthew Loper
  • Erik Sudderth
  • Michael Black

We develop a method for discovering the parts of an articulated object from aligned meshes capturing various three-dimensional (3D) poses. We adapt the distance dependent Chinese restaurant process (ddCRP) to allow nonparametric discovery of a potentially unbounded number of parts, while simultaneously guaranteeing a spatially connected segmentation. To allow analysis of datasets in which object instances have varying shapes, we model part variability across poses via affine transformations. By placing a matrix normal-inverse-Wishart prior on these affine transformations, we develop a ddCRP Gibbs sampler which tractably marginalizes over transformation uncertainty. Analyzing a dataset of humans captured in dozens of poses, we infer parts which provide quantitatively better motion predictions than conventional clustering methods.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Minimization of Continuous Bethe Approximations: A Positive Variation

  • Jason Pacheco
  • Erik Sudderth

We develop convergent minimization algorithms for Bethe variational approximations which explicitly constrain marginal estimates to families of valid distributions. While existing message passing algorithms define fixed point iterations corresponding to stationary points of the Bethe free energy, their greedy dynamics do not distinguish between local minima and maxima, and can fail to converge. For continuous estimation problems, this instability is linked to the creation of invalid marginal estimates, such as Gaussians with negative variance. Conversely, our approach leverages multiplier methods with well-understood convergence properties, and uses bound projection methods to ensure that marginal approximations are valid at all iterations. We derive general algorithms for discrete and Gaussian pairwise Markov random fields, showing improvements over standard loopy belief propagation. We also apply our method to a hybrid model with both discrete and continuous variables, showing improvements over expectation propagation.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Truly Nonparametric Online Variational Inference for Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes

  • Michael Bryant
  • Erik Sudderth

Variational methods provide a computationally scalable alternative to Monte Carlo methods for large-scale, Bayesian nonparametric learning. In practice, however, conventional batch and online variational methods quickly become trapped in local optima. In this paper, we consider a nonparametric topic model based on the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP), and develop a novel online variational inference algorithm based on split-merge topic updates. We derive a simpler and faster variational approximation of the HDP, and show that by intelligently splitting and merging components of the variational posterior, we can achieve substantially better predictions of test data than conventional online and batch variational algorithms. For streaming analysis of large datasets where batch analysis is infeasible, we show that our split-merge updates better capture the nonparametric properties of the underlying model, allowing continual learning of new topics.

AAAI Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Global Seismic Monitoring: A Bayesian Approach

  • Nimar Arora
  • Stuart Russell
  • Paul Kidwell
  • Erik Sudderth

The automated processing of multiple seismic signals to detect and localize seismic events is a central tool in both geophysics and nuclear treaty verification. This paper reports on a project, begun in 2009, to reformulate this problem in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian seismic monitoring system, NET-VISA, has been built comprising a spatial event prior and generative models of event transmission and detection, as well as an inference algorithm. Applied in the context of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 60% in the number of missed events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

NeurIPS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Spatial distance dependent Chinese restaurant processes for image segmentation

  • Soumya Ghosh
  • Andrei Ungureanu
  • Erik Sudderth
  • David Blei

The distance dependent Chinese restaurant process (ddCRP) was recently introduced to accommodate random partitions of non-exchangeable data. The ddCRP clusters data in a biased way: each data point is more likely to be clustered with other data that are near it in an external sense. This paper examines the ddCRP in a spatial setting with the goal of natural image segmentation. We explore the biases of the spatial ddCRP model and propose a novel hierarchical extension better suited for producing "human-like" segmentations. We then study the sensitivity of the models to various distance and appearance hyperparameters, and provide the first rigorous comparison of nonparametric Bayesian models in the image segmentation domain. On unsupervised image segmentation, we demonstrate that similar performance to existing nonparametric Bayesian models is possible with substantially simpler models and algorithms.

NeurIPS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

The Doubly Correlated Nonparametric Topic Model

  • Dae Kim
  • Erik Sudderth

Topic models are learned via a statistical model of variation within document collections, but designed to extract meaningful semantic structure. Desirable traits include the ability to incorporate annotations or metadata associated with documents; the discovery of correlated patterns of topic usage; and the avoidance of parametric assumptions, such as manual specification of the number of topics. We propose a doubly correlated nonparametric topic (DCNT) model, the first model to simultaneously capture all three of these properties. The DCNT models metadata via a flexible, Gaussian regression on arbitrary input features; correlations via a scalable square-root covariance representation; and nonparametric selection from an unbounded series of potential topics via a stick-breaking construction. We validate the semantic structure and predictive performance of the DCNT using a corpus of NIPS documents annotated by various metadata.

NeurIPS Conference 2010 Conference Paper

Global seismic monitoring as probabilistic inference

  • Nimar Arora
  • Stuart Russell
  • Paul Kidwell
  • Erik Sudderth

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

NeurIPS Conference 2010 Conference Paper

Layered image motion with explicit occlusions, temporal consistency, and depth ordering

  • Deqing Sun
  • Erik Sudderth
  • Michael Black

Layered models are a powerful way of describing natural scenes containing smooth surfaces that may overlap and occlude each other. For image motion estimation, such models have a long history but have not achieved the wide use or accuracy of non-layered methods. We present a new probabilistic model of optical flow in layers that addresses many of the shortcomings of previous approaches. In particular, we define a probabilistic graphical model that explicitly captures: 1) occlusions and disocclusions; 2) depth ordering of the layers; 3) temporal consistency of the layer segmentation. Additionally the optical flow in each layer is modeled by a combination of a parametric model and a smooth deviation based on an MRF with a robust spatial prior; the resulting model allows roughness in layers. Finally, a key contribution is the formulation of the layers using an image-dependent hidden field prior based on recent models for static scene segmentation. The method achieves state-of-the-art results on the Middlebury benchmark and produces meaningful scene segmentations as well as detected occlusion regions.

NeurIPS Conference 2009 Conference Paper

Sharing Features among Dynamical Systems with Beta Processes

  • Emily Fox
  • Michael Jordan
  • Erik Sudderth
  • Alan Willsky

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to relating multiple time series via a set of latent, dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, we allow data-driven selection of the size of this set, as well as the pattern with which behaviors are shared among time series. Via the Indian buffet process representation of the beta process predictive distributions, we develop an exact Markov chain Monte Carlo inference method. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth/death proposals. We validate our sampling algorithm using several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.

NeurIPS Conference 2008 Conference Paper

Nonparametric Bayesian Learning of Switching Linear Dynamical Systems

  • Emily Fox
  • Erik Sudderth
  • Michael Jordan
  • Alan Willsky

Many nonlinear dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. In this paper, we present a nonparametric approach to the learning of an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes by utilizing a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with an efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, and the IBOVESPA stock index.

NeurIPS Conference 2008 Conference Paper

Shared Segmentation of Natural Scenes Using Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes

  • Erik Sudderth
  • Michael Jordan

We develop a statistical framework for the simultaneous, unsupervised segmentation and discovery of visual object categories from image databases. Examining a large set of manually segmented scenes, we use chi--square tests to show that object frequencies and segment sizes both follow power law distributions, which are well modeled by the Pitman--Yor (PY) process. This nonparametric prior distribution leads to learning algorithms which discover an unknown set of objects, and segmentation methods which automatically adapt their resolution to each image. Generalizing previous applications of PY processes, we use Gaussian processes to discover spatially contiguous segments which respect image boundaries. Using a novel family of variational approximations, our approach produces segmentations which compare favorably to state--of--the--art methods, while simultaneously discovering categories shared among natural scenes.

NeurIPS Conference 2007 Conference Paper

Loop Series and Bethe Variational Bounds in Attractive Graphical Models

  • Alan Willsky
  • Erik Sudderth
  • Martin Wainwright

Variational methods are frequently used to approximate or bound the partition or likelihood function of a Markov random field. Methods based on mean field theory are guaranteed to provide lower bounds, whereas certain types of convex relaxations provide upper bounds. In general, loopy belief propagation (BP) provides (often accurate) approximations, but not bounds. We prove that for a class of attractive binary models, the value specified by any fixed point of loopy BP always provides a lower bound on the true likelihood. Empirically, this bound is much better than the naive mean field bound, and requires no further work than running BP. We establish these lower bounds using a loop series expansion due to Chertkov and Chernyak, which we show can be derived as a consequence of the tree reparameterization characterization of BP fixed points.

NeurIPS Conference 2005 Conference Paper

Describing Visual Scenes using Transformed Dirichlet Processes

  • Antonio Torralba
  • Alan Willsky
  • Erik Sudderth
  • William Freeman

Motivated by the problem of learning to detect and recognize objects with minimal supervision, we develop a hierarchical probabilistic model for the spatial structure of visual scenes. In contrast with most existing models, our approach explicitly captures uncertainty in the number of object instances depicted in a given image. Our scene model is based on the transformed Dirichlet process (TDP), a novel extension of the hierarchical DP in which a set of stochastically transformed mixture components are shared between multiple groups of data. For visual scenes, mixture components describe the spatial structure of visual features in an objectcentered coordinate frame, while transformations model the object positions in a particular image. Learning and inference in the TDP, which has many potential applications beyond computer vision, is based on an empirically effective Gibbs sampler. Applied to a dataset of partially labeled street scenes, we show that the TDP's inclusion of spatial structure improves detection performance, flexibly exploiting partially labeled training images.

NeurIPS Conference 2004 Conference Paper

Distributed Occlusion Reasoning for Tracking with Nonparametric Belief Propagation

  • Erik Sudderth
  • Michael Mandel
  • William Freeman
  • Alan Willsky

We describe a threedimensional geometric hand model suitable for vi- sual tracking applications. The kinematic constraints implied by the model's joints have a probabilistic structure which is well described by a graphical model. Inference in this model is complicated by the hand's many degrees of freedom, as well as multimodal likelihoods caused by ambiguous image measurements. We use nonparametric belief propaga- tion (NBP) to develop a tracking algorithm which exploits the graph's structure to control complexity, while avoiding costly discretization. While kinematic constraints naturally have a local structure, self occlusions created by the imaging process lead to complex interpenden- cies in color and edgebased likelihood functions. However, we show that local structure may be recovered by introducing binary hidden vari- ables describing the occlusion state of each pixel. We augment the NBP algorithm to infer these occlusion variables in a distributed fashion, and then analytically marginalize over them to produce hand position esti- mates which properly account for occlusion events. We provide simula- tions showing that NBP may be used to refine inaccurate model initializa- tions, as well as track hand motion through extended image sequences. 1 Introduction Accurate visual detection and tracking of threedimensional articulated objects is a chal- lenging problem with applications in humancomputer interfaces, motion capture, and scene understanding [1]. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method for tracking a geometric hand model from monocular image sequences. Because articulated hand mod- els have many (roughly 26) degrees of freedom, exact representation of the posterior dis- tribution over model configurations is intractable. Trackers based on extended and un- scented Kalman filters [2, 3] have difficulties with the multimodal uncertainties produced by ambiguous image evidence. This has motived many researchers to consider nonparamet- ric representations, including particle filters [4, 5] and deterministic multiscale discretiza- tions [6]. However, the hand's high dimensionality can cause these trackers to suffer catas- trophic failures, requiring the use of models which limit the hand's motion [4] or sophisti- cated prior models of hand configurations and dynamics [5, 6]. An alternative way to address the high dimensionality of articulated tracking problems is to describe the posterior distribution's statistical structure using a graphical model. Graph- Figure 1: Projected edges (left block) and silhouettes (right block) for a configuration of the 3D structural hand model matching the given image. To aid visualization, the model is also projected following rotations by 35 (center) and 70 (right) about the vertical axis. ical models have been used to track viewbased human body representations [7], con- tour models of restricted hand configurations [8], viewbased 2. 5D "cardboard" models of hands and people [9], and a full 3D kinematic human body model [10]. Because the variables in these graphical models are continuous, and discretization is intractable for threedimensional models, most traditional graphical inference algorithms are inapplica- ble. Instead, these trackers are based on recently proposed extensions of particle filters to general graphs: mean field Monte Carlo in [9], and nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) [11, 12] in [10]. In this paper, we show that NBP may be used to track a threedimensional geometric model of the hand. To derive a graphical model for the tracking problem, we consider a redun- dant local representation in which each hand component is described by its own three dimensional position and orientation. We show that the model's kinematic constraints, including selfintersection constraints not captured by joint angle representations, take a simple form in this local representation. We also provide a local decomposition of the likelihood function which properly handles occlusion in a distributed fashion, a significant improvement over our earlier tracking results [13]. We conclude with simulations demon- strating our algorithm's robustness to occlusions. 2 Geometric Hand Modeling Structurally, the hand is composed of sixteen approximately rigid components: three pha- langes or links for each finger and thumb, as well as the palm [1]. As proposed by [2, 3], we model each rigid body by one or more truncated quadrics (ellipsoids, cones, and cylin- ders) of fixed size. These geometric primitives are well matched to the true geometry of the hand, allow tracking from arbitrary orientations (in contrast to 2. 5D "cardboard" mod- els [5, 9]), and permit efficient computation of projected boundaries and silhouettes [3]. Figure 1 shows the edges and silhouettes corresponding to a sample hand model configu- ration. Note that only a coarse model of the hand's geometry is necessary for tracking. 2. 1 Kinematic Representation and Constraints The kinematic constraints between different hand model components are well described by revolute joints [1]. Figure 2(a) shows a graph describing this kinematic structure, in which nodes correspond to rigid bodies and edges to joints. The two joints connecting the phalanges of each finger and thumb have a single rotational degree of freedom, while the joints connecting the base of each finger to the palm have two degrees of freedom (cor- responding to grasping and spreading motions). These twenty angles, combined with the palm's global position and orientation, provide 26 degrees of freedom. Forward kinematic transformations may be used to determine the finger positions corresponding to a given set of joint angles. While most modelbased hand trackers use this joint angle parameteriza- tion, we instead explore a redundant representation in which the ith rigid body is described by its position qi and orientation ri (a unit quaternion). Let xi = (qi, ri) denote this local description of each component, and x = {x1, .. ., x16} the overall hand configuration. Clearly, there are dependencies among the elements of x implied by the kinematic con- (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 2: Graphs describing the hand model's constraints. (a) Kinematic constraints (EK ) de- rived from revolute joints. (b) Structural constraints (ES) preventing 3D component intersections. (c) Dynamics relating two consecutive time steps. (d) Occlusion consistency constraints (EO). straints. Let EK be the set of all pairs of rigid bodies which are connected by joints, or equivalently the edges in the kinematic graph of Fig. 2(a). For each joint (i, j) EK, define an indicator function K (x i, j i, xj ) which is equal to one if the pair (xi, xj ) are valid rigid body configurations associated with some setting of the angles of joint (i, j), and zero otherwise. Viewing the component configurations xi as random variables, the following prior explicitly enforces all constraints implied by the original joint angle representation: pK(x) K (x i, j i, xj ) (1) (i, j)EK Equation (1) shows that pK (x) is an undirected graphical model, whose Markov structure is described by the graph representing the hand's kinematic structure (Fig. 2(a)). 2. 2 Structural and Temporal Constraints In reality, the hand's joint angles are coupled because different fingers can never occupy the same physical volume. This constraint is complex in a joint angle parameterization, but simple in our local representation: the position and orientation of every pair of rigid bodies must be such that their component quadric surfaces do not intersect. We approximate this ideal constraint in two ways. First, we only explicitly constrain those pairs of rigid bodies which are most likely to intersect, corresponding to the edges ES of the graph in Fig. 2(b). Furthermore, because the relative orientations of each finger's quadrics are implicitly constrained by the kinematic prior pK (x), we may detect most intersections based on the distance between object centroids. The structural prior is then given by 1 ||q p i - qj || > i, j S (x) S (x (x i, j i, xj ) S i, j i, xj ) = (2) 0 otherwise (i, j)ES where i, j is determined from the quadrics composing rigid bodies i and j. Empirically, we find that this constraint helps prevent different fingers from tracking the same image data. In order to track hand motion, we must model the hand's dynamics. Let xt denote the i position and orientation of the ith hand component at time t, and xt = {xt1, .. ., xt16}. For each component at time t, our dynamical model adds a Gaussian potential connecting it to the corresponding component at the previous time step (see Fig. 2(c)): 16 pT xt | xt-1 = N xt - xt-1; 0, i i i (3) i=1 Although this temporal model is factorized, the kinematic constraints at the following time step implicitly couple the corresponding random walks. These dynamics can be justified as the maximum entropy model given observations of the nodes' marginal variances i. 3 Observation Model Skin colored pixels have predictable statistics, which we model using a histogram distribu- tion pskin estimated from training patches [14]. Images without people were used to create a histogram model pbkgd of nonskin pixels. Let (x) denote the silhouette of projected hand configuration x. Then, assuming pixels are independent, an image y has likelihood p p skin(u) C (y | x) = pskin(u) pbkgd(v) (4) pbkgd(u) u(x) v(x) u(x) The final expression neglects the proportionality constant p v bkgd(v), which is inde- pendent of x, and thereby limits computation to the silhouette region [8]. 3. 1 Distributed Occlusion Reasoning In configurations where there is no selfocclusion, pC (y | x) decomposes as a product of local likelihood terms involving the projections (xi) of individual hand components [13]. To allow a similar decomposition (and hence distributed inference) when there is occlu- sion, we augment the configuration xi of each node with a set of binary hidden variables zi = {zi } = 0 if pixel u in the projection of rigid body i is occluded (u) u. Letting zi(u) by any other body, and 1 otherwise, the color likelihood (eq. (4)) may be rewritten as 16 p z 16 i(u) p skin(u) C (y | x, z) = = p p C (y | xi, zi) (5) bkgd(u) i=1 u(xi) i=1 Assuming they are set consistently with the hand configuration x, the hidden occlusion variables z ensure that the likelihood of each pixel in (x) is counted exactly once. We may enforce consistency of the occlusion variables using the following function: 0 if x = 1 (x j occludes xi, u (xj ), and zi(u) j, zi; x (6) (u) i) = 1 otherwise Note that because our rigid bodies are convex and nonintersecting, they can never take mutually occluding configurations. The constraint (xj, zi; x (u) i) is zero precisely when pixel u in the projection of xi should be occluded by xj, but zi is in the unoccluded state. (u) The following potential encodes all of the occlusion relationships between nodes i and j: O (x (x; x; x i, j i, zi, xj, zj ) = j, zi(u) i) (xi, zj(u) j ) (7) u These occlusion constraints exist between all pairs of nodes. As with the structural prior, we enforce only those pairs EO (see Fig. 2(d)) most prone to xj occlusion: pO(x, z) O (x i, j i, zi, xj, zj ) (8) (i, j)EO z y i(u) xi Figure 3 shows a factor graph for the occlusion relationships between xi and its neighbors, as well as the observation potential pC (y | xi, zi). x u k The occlusion potential (xj, zi; x (u) i) has a very Figure 3: Factor graph showing weak dependence on xi, depending only on p(y | xi, zi), and the occlusion con- whether xi is behind xj relative to the camera. straints placed on xi by xj, xk. Dashed lines denote weak dependencies. The 3. 2 Modeling Edge Filter Responses plate is replicated once per pixel. Edges provide another important hand tracking cue. Using boundaries labeled in training images, we estimated a histogram pon of the response of a derivative of Gaussian filter steered to the edge's orientation [8, 10]. A similar histogram poff was estimated for filter outputs at randomly chosen locations. Let (x) denote the oriented edges in the projection of model configuration x. Then, again assuming pixel independence, image y has edge likelihood p 16 p z 16 i(u) p on(u) on(u) E (y | x, z) = = p p E (y | xi, zi) (9) off (u) poff(u) u(x) i=1 u(xi) i=1 where we have used the same occlusion variables z to allow a local decomposition. 4 Nonparametric Belief Propagation Over the previous sections, we have shown that a redundant, local representation of the geometric hand model's configuration xt allows p (xt | yt), the posterior distribution of the hand model at time t given image observations yt, to be written as 16 p xt | yt pK(xt)pS(xt)pO(xt, zt) pC(yt | xt, zt)p, zt) i i E (yt | xti i (10) zt i=1 The summation marginalizes over the hidden occlusion variables zt, which were needed to locally decompose the edge and color likelihoods. When video frames are observed, the overall posterior distribution is given by p (x | y) p xt | yt pT (xt | xt-1) (11) t=1 Excluding the potentials involving occlusion variables, which we discuss in detail in Sec. 4. 2, eq. (11) is an example of a pairwise Markov random field: p (x | y) i, j (xi, xj) i (xi, y) (12) (i, j)E iV Hand tracking can thus be posed as inference in a graphical model, a problem we propose to solve using belief propagation (BP) [15]. At each BP iteration, some node i V calculates a message m (x ij j ) to be sent to a neighbor j (i) {j | (i, j) E}: mn (x mn-1 (x ij j ) j, i (xj, xi) i (xi, y) ki i) dxi (13) xi k(i)\j At any iteration, each node can produce an approximation ^ p(xi | y) to the marginal distri- bution p (xi | y) by combining the incoming messages with the local observation: ^ pn(xi | y) i (xi, yi) mn (x ji i) (14) j(i) For treestructured graphs, the beliefs ^ pn(xi | y) will converge to the true marginals p (xi | y). On graphs with cycles, BP is approximate but often highly accurate [15]. 4. 1 Nonparametric Representations For the hand tracking problem, the rigid body configurations xi are sixdimensional con- tinuous variables, making accurate discretization intractable. Instead, we employ nonpara- metric, particlebased approximations to these messages using the nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) algorithm [11, 12]. In NBP, each message is represented using either a samplebased density estimate (a mixture of Gaussians) or an analytic function. Both types of messages are needed for hand tracking, as we discuss below. Each NBP message update involves two stages: sampling from the estimated marginal, followed by Monte Carlo ap- proximation of the outgoing message. For the general form of these updates, see [11]; the following sections focus on the details of the hand tracking implementation. The hand tracking application is complicated by the fact that the orientation component ri of xi = (qi, ri) is an element of the rotation group SO(3). Following [10], we represent orientations as unit quaternions, and use a linearized approximation when constructing den- sity estimates, projecting samples back to the unit sphere as necessary. This approximation is most appropriate for densities with tightly concentrated rotational components. 4. 2 Marginal Computation BP's estimate of the belief ^ p(xi | y) is equal to the product of the incoming messages from neighboring nodes with the local observation potential (see eq. (14)). NBP approximates this product using importance sampling, as detailed in [13] for cases where there is no selfocclusion. First, M samples are drawn from the product of the incoming kinematic and temporal messages, which are Gaussian mixtures. We use a recently proposed multi- scale Gibbs sampler [16] to efficiently draw accurate (albeit approximate) samples, while avoiding the exponential cost associated with direct sampling (a product of d M Gaussian mixtures contains M d Gaussians). Following normalization of the rotational component, each sample is assigned a weight equal to the product of the color and edge likelihoods with any structural messages. Finally, the computationally efficient "rule of thumb" heuris- tic [17] is used to set the bandwidth of Gaussian kernels placed around each sample. To derive BP updates for the occlusion masks zi, we first cluster (xi, zi) for each hand component so that p (xt, zt | yt) has a pairwise form (as in eq. (12)). In principle, NBP could manage occlusion constraints by sampling candidate occlusion masks zi along with rigid body configurations xi. However, due to the exponentially large number of possible occlusion masks, we employ a more efficient analytic approximation. Consider the BP message sent from xj to (zi, xi), calculated by applying eq. (13) to the occlusion potential (x; x u j, zi(u) i). We assume that ^ p(xj | y) is well separated from any candidate xi, a situation typically ensured by the kinematic and structural constraints. The occlusion constraint's weak dependence on xi (see Fig. 3) then separates the message computation into two cases. If xi lies in front of typical xj configurations, the BP message j, i(u)(zi ) is uninformative. If x (u) i is occluded, the message approximately equals j, i(u)(zi = 0) = 1 = 1) = 1 - Pr [u (x (u) j, i(u)(zi(u) j )] (15) where we have neglected correlations among pixel occlusion states, and where the prob- ability is computed with respect to ^ p(xj | y). By taking the product of these messages k, i(u)(zi ) from all potential occluders x (u) k and normalizing, we may determine an ap- proximation to the marginal occlusion probability i Pr[z = 0]. (u) i(u) Because the color likelihood pC (y | xi, zi) factorizes across pixels u, the BP approximation to pC (y | xi) may be written in terms of these marginal occlusion probabilites: p p skin(u) C (y | xi) i + (1 - ) (16) (u) i(u) pbkgd(u) u(xi) Intuitively, this equation downweights the color evidence at pixel u as the probability of that pixel's occlusion increases. The edge likelihood pE(y | xi) averages over zi similarly. The NBP estimate of ^ p(xi | y) is determined by sampling configurations of xi as before, and reweighting them using these occlusionsensitive likelihood functions. 4. 3 Message Propagation To derive the propagation rule for nonocclusion edges, as suggested by [18] we rewrite the message update equation (13) in terms of the marginal distribution ^ p(xi | y): ^ pn-1(x mn (x i | y) dx ij j ) = j, i (xj, xi) i (17) x mn-1 (x i ji i) Our explicit use of the current marginal estimate ^ pn-1(xi | y) helps focus the Monte Carlo approximation on the most important regions of the state space. Note that messages sent 1 2 1 2 Figure 4: Refinement of a coarse initialization following one and two NBP iterations, both without (left) and with (right) occlusion reasoning. Each plot shows the projection of the five most significant modes of the estimated marginal distributions. Note the difference in middle finger estimates. along kinematic, structural, and temporal edges depend only on the belief ^ p(xi | y) follow- ing marginalization over occlusion variables zi. Details and pseudocode for the message propagation step are provided in [13]. For kine- matic constraints, we sample uniformly among permissable joint angles, and then use forward kinematics to propagate samples from ^ pn-1(xi | y) /mn-1 (x ji i) to hypothesized configurations of xj. Following [12], temporal messages are determined by adjusting the bandwidths of the current marginal estimate ^ p(xi | y) to match the temporal covariance i. Because structural potentials (eq. (2)) equal one for all state configurations outside some ball, the ideal structural messages are not finitely integrable. We therefore approximate the structural message m (x ij j ) as an analytic function equal to the weights of all kernels in ^ p(xi | y) outside a ball centered at qj, the position of xj.

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  • Erik Sudderth
  • William Freeman
  • Alan Willsky

The problem of approximating the product of several Gaussian mixture distributions arises in a number of contexts, including the nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) inference algorithm and the training of prod- uct of experts models. This paper develops two multiscale algorithms for sampling from a product of Gaussian mixtures, and compares their performance to existing methods. The first is a multiscale variant of pre- viously proposed Monte Carlo techniques, with comparable theoretical guarantees but improved empirical convergence rates. The second makes use of approximate kernel density evaluation methods to construct a fast approximate sampler, which is guaranteed to sample points to within a tunable parameter (cid: 15) of their true probability. We compare both multi- scale samplers on a set of computational examples motivated by NBP, demonstrating significant improvements over existing methods.

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  • Alan Willsky

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