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Emmanuel Candes

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10 papers

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Robust Sampling for Active Statistical Inference

Puheng Li
Tijana Zrnic
Emmanuel Candes

Active statistical inference is a new method for inference with AI-assisted data collection. Given a budget on the number of labeled data points that can be collected and assuming access to an AI predictive model, the basic idea is to improve estimation accuracy by prioritizing the collection of labels where the model is most uncertain. The drawback, however, is that inaccurate uncertainty estimates can make active sampling produce highly noisy results, potentially worse than those from naive uniform sampling. In this work, we present robust sampling strategies for active statistical inference. Robust sampling ensures that the resulting estimator is never worse than the estimator using uniform sampling. Furthermore, with reliable uncertainty estimates, the estimator usually outperforms standard active inference. This is achieved by optimally interpolating between uniform and active sampling, depending on the quality of the uncertainty scores, and by using ideas from robust optimization. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a series of real datasets from computational social science and survey research.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction

Anastasios Angelopoulos
Emmanuel Candes
Ryan J. Tibshirani

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U. S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used inofficial CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules at this link.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks

Kexin Huang
Ying Jin
Emmanuel Candes
Jure Leskovec

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful machine learning prediction models on graph-structured data. However, GNNs lack rigorous uncertainty estimates, limiting their reliable deployment in settings where the cost of errors is significant. We propose conformalized GNN (CF-GNN), extending conformal prediction (CP) to graph-based models for guaranteed uncertainty estimates. Given an entity in the graph, CF-GNN produces a prediction set/interval that provably contains the true label with pre-defined coverage probability (e. g. 90%). We establish a permutation invariance condition that enables the validity of CP on graph data and provide an exact characterization of the test-time coverage. Moreover, besides valid coverage, it is crucial to reduce the prediction set size/interval length for practical use. We observe a key connection between non-conformity scores and network structures, which motivates us to develop a topology-aware output correction model that learns to update the prediction and produces more efficient prediction sets/intervals. Extensive experiments show that CF-GNN achieves any pre-defined target marginal coverage while significantly reducing the prediction set/interval size by up to 74% over the baselines. It also empirically achieves satisfactory conditional coverage over various raw and network features.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift

Isaac Gibbs
Emmanuel Candes

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general wrapper that can be combined with any black box method that produces point predictions of the unseen label or estimated quantiles of its distribution. While previous conformal inference methods rely on the assumption that the data are exchangeable, our adaptive approach provably achieves the desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals irrespective of the true data generating process. We accomplish this by modelling the distribution shift as a learning problem in a single parameter whose optimal value is varying over time and must be continuously re-estimated. We test our method, adaptive conformal inference, on two real world datasets and find that its predictions are robust to visible and significant distribution shifts.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Achieving Equalized Odds by Resampling Sensitive Attributes

Yaniv Romano
Stephen Bates
Emmanuel Candes

We present a flexible framework for learning predictive models that approximately satisfy the equalized odds notion of fairness. This is achieved by introducing a general discrepancy functional that rigorously quantifies violations of this criterion. This differentiable functional is used as a penalty driving the model parameters towards equalized odds. To rigorously evaluate fitted models, we develop a formal hypothesis test to detect whether a prediction rule violates this property, the first such test in the literature. Both the model fitting and hypothesis testing leverage a resampled version of the sensitive attribute obeying equalized odds, by construction. We demonstrate the applicability and validity of the proposed framework both in regression and multi-class classification problems, reporting improved performance over state-of-the-art methods. Lastly, we show how to incorporate techniques for equitable uncertainty quantification---unbiased for each group under study---to communicate the results of the data analysis in exact terms.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage

Yaniv Romano
Matteo Sesia
Emmanuel Candes

Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop specialized versions of these techniques for categorical and unordered response labels that, in addition to providing marginal coverage, are also fully adaptive to complex data distributions, in the sense that they perform favorably in terms of approximate conditional coverage compared to alternative methods. The heart of our contribution is a novel conformity score, which we explicitly demonstrate to be powerful and intuitive for classification problems, but whose underlying principle is potentially far more general. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical guarantees, as well as the statistical advantages of the proposed methods over the existing alternatives.

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NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift

Ryan Tibshirani
Rina Foygel Barber
Emmanuel Candes
Aaditya Ramdas

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between the two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately from a set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more broadly, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

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NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Conformalized Quantile Regression

Yaniv Romano
Evan Patterson
Emmanuel Candes

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

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NeurIPS Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Solving Random Quadratic Systems of Equations Is Nearly as Easy as Solving Linear Systems

Yuxin Chen
Emmanuel Candes

This paper is concerned with finding a solution x to a quadratic system of equations y i = | |^2, i = 1, 2, .. ., m. We prove that it is possible to solve unstructured quadratic systems in n variables exactly from O(n) equations in linear time, that is, in time proportional to reading and evaluating the data. This is accomplished by a novel procedure, which starting from an initial guess given by a spectral initialization procedure, attempts to minimize a non-convex objective. The proposed algorithm distinguishes from prior approaches by regularizing the initialization and descent procedures in an adaptive fashion, which discard terms bearing too much influence on the initial estimate or search directions. These careful selection rules---which effectively serve as a variance reduction scheme---provide a tighter initial guess, more robust descent directions, and thus enhanced practical performance. Further, this procedure also achieves a near-optimal statistical accuracy in the presence of noise. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that the computational cost of our algorithm is about four times that of solving a least-squares problem of the same size.

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NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

A Differential Equation for Modeling Nesterov’s Accelerated Gradient Method: Theory and Insights

Weijie Su
Stephen Boyd
Emmanuel Candes

We derive a second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE), which is the limit of Nesterov’s accelerated gradient method. This ODE exhibits approximate equivalence to Nesterov’s scheme and thus can serve as a tool for analysis. We show that the continuous time ODE allows for a better understanding of Nesterov’s scheme. As a byproduct, we obtain a family of schemes with similar convergence rates. The ODE interpretation also suggests restarting Nesterov’s scheme leading to an algorithm, which can be rigorously proven to converge at a linear rate whenever the objective is strongly convex.

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