Devavrat Shah

JMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

On Model Identification and Out-of-Sample Prediction of PCR with Applications to Synthetic Controls

• Anish Agarwal
• Devavrat Shah
• Dennis Shen

We analyze principal component regression (PCR) in a high-dimensional error-in-variables setting with fixed design. Under suitable conditions, we show that PCR consistently identifies the unique model with minimum $\ell_2$-norm. These results enable us to establish non-asymptotic out-of-sample prediction guarantees that improve upon the best known rates. In the course of our analysis, we introduce a natural linear algebraic condition between the in- and out-of-sample covariates, which allows us to avoid distributional assumptions for out-of-sample predictions. Our simulations illustrate the importance of this condition for generalization, even under covariate shifts. Accordingly, we construct a hypothesis test to check when this condition holds in practice. As a byproduct, our results also lead to novel results for the synthetic controls literature, a leading approach for policy evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, our prediction guarantees for the fixed design setting have been elusive in both the high-dimensional error-in-variables and synthetic controls literatures. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2025. ( edit, beta )

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Human Expertise in Algorithmic Prediction

• Rohan Alur
• Manish Raghavan
• Devavrat Shah

We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to predictive algorithms. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Auditing for Human Expertise

• Rohan Alur
• Loren Laine
• Darrick Li
• Manish Raghavan
• Devavrat Shah
• Dennis Shung

High-stakes prediction tasks (e. g. , patient diagnosis) are often handled by trained human experts. A common source of concern about automation in these settings is that experts may exercise intuition that is difficult to model and/or have access to information (e. g. , conversations with a patient) that is simply unavailable to a would-be algorithm. This raises a natural question whether human experts add value which could not be captured by an algorithmic predictor. We develop a statistical framework under which we can pose this question as a natural hypothesis test. Indeed, as our framework highlights, detecting human expertise is more subtle than simply comparing the accuracy of expert predictions to those made by a particular learning algorithm. Instead, we propose a simple procedure which tests whether expert predictions are statistically independent from the outcomes of interest after conditioning on the available inputs (‘features’). A rejection of our test thus suggests that human experts may add value to any algorithm trained on the available data, and has direct implications for whether human-AI ‘complementarity’ is achievable in a given prediction task. We highlight the utility of our procedure using admissions data collected from the emergency department of a large academic hospital system, where we show that physicians’ admit/discharge decisions for patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) appear to be incorporating information that is not available to a standard algorithmic screening tool. This is despite the fact that the screening tool is arguably more accurate than physicians’ discretionary decisions, highlighting that – even absent normative concerns about accountability or interpretability – accuracy is insufficient to justify algorithmic automation.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Counterfactual Identifiability of Bijective Causal Models

• Arash Nasr-Esfahany
• Mohammad Alizadeh
• Devavrat Shah

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Matrix Estimation for Individual Fairness

• Cindy Y. Zhang
• Sarah Huiyi Cen
• Devavrat Shah

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm’s IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i. e. , does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

SAMoSSA: Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis with Stochastic Autoregressive Noise

• Abdullah Alomar
• Munther Dahleh
• Sean Mann
• Devavrat Shah

The well-established practice of time series analysis involves estimating deterministic, non-stationary trend and seasonality components followed by learning the residual stochastic, stationary components. Recently, it has been shown that one can learn the deterministic non-stationary components accurately using multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (mSSA) in the absence of a correlated stationary component; meanwhile, in the absence of deterministic non-stationary components, the Autoregressive (AR) stationary component can also be learnt readily, e. g. via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). However, a theoretical underpinning of multi-stage learning algorithms involving both deterministic and stationary components has been absent in the literature despite its pervasiveness. We resolve this open question by establishing desirable theoretical guarantees for a natural two-stage algorithm, where mSSA is first applied to estimate the non-stationary components despite the presence of a correlated stationary AR component, which is subsequently learned from the residual time series. We provide a finite-sample forecasting consistency bound for the proposed algorithm, SAMoSSA, which is data-driven and thus requires minimal parameter tuning. To establish theoretical guarantees, we overcome three hurdles: (i) we characterize the spectra of Page matrices of stable AR processes, thus extending the analysis of mSSA; (ii) we extend the analysis of AR process identification in the presence of arbitrary bounded perturbations; (iii) we characterize the out-of-sample or forecasting error, as opposed to solely considering model identification. Through representative empirical studies, we validate the superior performance of SAMoSSA compared to existing baselines. Notably, SAMoSSA's ability to account for AR noise structure yields improvements ranging from 5% to 37% across various benchmark datasets.

CLeaR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Causal Imputation via Synthetic Interventions

• Chandler Squires
• Dennis Shen
• Anish Agarwal
• Devavrat Shah
• Caroline Uhler

Consider the problem of determining the effect of a compound on a specific cell type. To answer this question, researchers traditionally need to run an experiment applying the drug of interest to that cell type. This approach is not scalable: given a large number of different actions (compounds) and a large number of different contexts (cell types), it is infeasible to run an experiment for every action-context pair. In such cases, one would ideally like to predict the outcome for every pair while only needing outcome data for a small _subset_ of pairs. This task, which we label "causal imputation", is a generalization of the causal transportability problem. To address this challenge, we extend the recently introduced _synthetic interventions_ (SI) estimator to handle more general data sparsity patterns. We prove that, under a latent factor model, our estimator provides valid estimates for the causal imputation task. We motivate this model by establishing a connection to the linear structural causal model literature. Finally, we consider the prominent CMAP dataset in predicting the effects of compounds on gene expression across cell types. We find that our estimator outperforms standard baselines, thus confirming its utility in biological applications.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

A Computationally Efficient Method for Learning Exponential Family Distributions

• Abhin Shah
• Devavrat Shah
• Gregory Wornell

We consider the question of learning the natural parameters of a $k$ parameter \textit{minimal} exponential family from i. i. d. samples in a computationally and statistically efficient manner. We focus on the setting where the support as well as the natural parameters are appropriately bounded. While the traditional maximum likelihood estimator for this class of exponential family is consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient, evaluating it is computationally hard. In this work, we propose a computationally efficient estimator that is consistent as well as asymptotically normal under mild conditions. We provide finite sample guarantees to achieve an ($\ell_2$) error of $\alpha$ in the parameter estimation with sample complexity $O(\mathrm{poly}(k/\alpha))$ and computational complexity ${O}(\mathrm{poly}(k/\alpha))$. To establish these results, we show that, at the population level, our method can be viewed as the maximum likelihood estimation of a re-parameterized distribution belonging to the same class of exponential family.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Change Point Detection via Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis

• Arwa Alanqary
• Abdullah Alomar
• Devavrat Shah

The objective of change point detection (CPD) is to detect significant and abrupt changes in the dynamics of the underlying system of interest through multivariate time series observations. In this work, we develop and analyze an algorithm for CPD that is inspired by a variant of the classical singular spectrum analysis (SSA) approach for time series by combining it with the classical cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic from sequential hypothesis testing. In particular, we model the underlying dynamics of multivariate time series observations through the spatio-temporal model introduced recently in the multivariate SSA (mSSA) literature. The change point in such a setting corresponds to a change in the underlying spatio-temporal model. As the primary contributions of this work, we develop an algorithm based on CUSUM-statistic to detect such change points in an online fashion. We extend the analysis of CUSUM statistics, traditionally done for the setting of independent observations, to the dependent setting of (multivariate) time series under the spatio-temporal model. Specifically, for a given parameter $h > 0$, our method achieves the following desirable trade-off: when a change happens, it detects it within $O(h)$ time delay on average, while in the absence of change, it does not declare false detection for at least $\exp(\Omega(h))$ time length on average. We conduct empirical experiments using benchmark and synthetic datasets. We find that the proposed method performs competitively or outperforms the state-of-the-art change point detection methods across datasets.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

PerSim: Data-Efficient Offline Reinforcement Learning with Heterogeneous Agents via Personalized Simulators

• Anish Agarwal
• Abdullah Alomar
• Varkey Alumootil
• Devavrat Shah
• Dennis Shen
• Zhi Xu
• Cindy Yang

We consider offline reinforcement learning (RL) with heterogeneous agents under severe data scarcity, i. e. , we only observe a single historical trajectory for every agent under an unknown, potentially sub-optimal policy. We find that the performance of state-of-the-art offline and model-based RL methods degrade significantly given such limited data availability, even for commonly perceived "solved" benchmark settings such as "MountainCar" and "CartPole". To address this challenge, we propose PerSim, a model-based offline RL approach which first learns a personalized simulator for each agent by collectively using the historical trajectories across all agents, prior to learning a policy. We do so by positing that the transition dynamics across agents can be represented as a latent function of latent factors associated with agents, states, and actions; subsequently, we theoretically establish that this function is well-approximated by a "low-rank" decomposition of separable agent, state, and action latent functions. This representation suggests a simple, regularized neural network architecture to effectively learn the transition dynamics per agent, even with scarce, offline data. We perform extensive experiments across several benchmark environments and RL methods. The consistent improvement of our approach, measured in terms of both state dynamics prediction and eventual reward, confirms the efficacy of our framework in leveraging limited historical data to simultaneously learn personalized policies across agents.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Regulating algorithmic filtering on social media

• Sarah Cen
• Devavrat Shah

By filtering the content that users see, social media platforms have the ability to influence users' perceptions and decisions, from their dining choices to their voting preferences. This influence has drawn scrutiny, with many calling for regulations on filtering algorithms, but designing and enforcing regulations remains challenging. In this work, we examine three questions. First, given a regulation, how would one design an audit to enforce it? Second, does the audit impose a performance cost on the platform? Third, how does the audit affect the content that the platform is incentivized to filter? In response to these questions, we propose a method such that, given a regulation, an auditor can test whether that regulation is met with only black-box access to the filtering algorithm. We then turn to the platform's perspective. The platform's goal is to maximize an objective function while meeting regulation. We find that there are conditions under which the regulation does not place a high performance cost on the platform and, notably, that content diversity can play a key role in aligning the interests of the platform and regulators.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Estimation of Skill Distribution from a Tournament

• Ali Jadbabaie
• Anuran Makur
• Devavrat Shah

In this paper, we study the problem of learning the skill distribution of a population of agents from observations of pairwise games in a tournament. These games are played among randomly drawn agents from the population. The agents in our model can be individuals, sports teams, or Wall Street fund managers. Formally, we postulate that the likelihoods of outcomes of games are governed by the parametric Bradley-Terry-Luce (or multinomial logit) model, where the probability of an agent beating another is the ratio between its skill level and the pairwise sum of skill levels, and the skill parameters are drawn from an unknown, non-parametric skill density of interest. The problem is, in essence, to learn a distribution from noisy, quantized observations. We propose a surprisingly simple and tractable algorithm that learns the skill density with near-optimal minimax mean squared error scaling as $n^{-1+\varepsilon}$, for any $\varepsilon>0$, so long as the density is smooth. Our approach brings together prior work on learning skill parameters from pairwise comparisons with kernel density estimation from non-parametric statistics. Furthermore, we prove information theoretic lower bounds which establish minimax optimality of the skill parameter estimation technique used in our algorithm. These bounds utilize a continuum version of Fano's method along with a careful covering argument. We apply our algorithm to various soccer leagues and world cups, cricket world cups, and mutual funds. We find that the entropy of a learnt distribution provides a quantitative measure of skill, which in turn provides rigorous explanations for popular beliefs about perceived qualities of sporting events, e. g. , soccer league rankings. Finally, we apply our method to assess the skill distributions of mutual funds. Our results shed light on the abundance of low quality funds prior to the Great Recession of 2008, and the domination of the industry by more skilled funds after the financial crisis.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Sample Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Low-Rank Matrix Estimation

• Devavrat Shah
• Dogyoon Song
• Zhi Xu
• Yuzhe Yang

We consider the question of learning $Q$-function in a sample efficient manner for reinforcement learning with continuous state and action spaces under a generative model. If $Q$-function is Lipschitz continuous, then the minimal sample complexity for estimating $\epsilon$-optimal $Q$-function is known to scale as $\Omega(\frac{1}{\epsilon^{d_1+d_2+2}})$ per classical non-parametric learning theory, where $d_1$ and $d_2$ denote the dimensions of the state and action spaces respectively. The $Q$-function, when viewed as a kernel, induces a Hilbert-Schmidt operator and hence possesses square-summable spectrum. This motivates us to consider a parametric class of $Q$-functions parameterized by its "rank" $r$, which contains all Lipschitz $Q$-functions as $r\to\infty$. As our key contribution, we develop a simple, iterative learning algorithm that finds $\epsilon$-optimal $Q$-function with sample complexity of $\widetilde{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon^{\max(d_1, d_2)+2}})$ when the optimal $Q$-function has low rank $r$ and the discounting factor $\gamma$ is below a certain threshold. Thus, this provides an exponential improvement in sample complexity. To enable our result, we develop a novel Matrix Estimation algorithm that faithfully estimates an unknown low-rank matrix in the $\ell_\infty$ sense even in the presence of arbitrary bounded noise, which might be of interest in its own right. Empirical results on several stochastic control tasks confirm the efficacy of our "low-rank" algorithms.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

On Robustness of Principal Component Regression

• Anish Agarwal
• Devavrat Shah
• Dennis Shen
• Dogyoon Song

Consider the setting of Linear Regression where the observed response variables, in expectation, are linear functions of the p-dimensional covariates. Then to achieve vanishing prediction error, the number of required samples scales faster than pσ2, where σ2 is a bound on the noise variance. In a high-dimensional setting where p is large but the covariates admit a low-dimensional representation (say r ≪ p), then Principal Component Regression (PCR), cf. [36], is an effective approach; here, the response variables are regressed with respect to the principal components of the covariates. The resulting number of required samples to achieve vanishing prediction error now scales faster than rσ2(≪ pσ2). Despite the tremendous utility of PCR, its ability to handle settings with noisy, missing, and mixed (discrete and continuous) valued covariates is not understood and remains an important open challenge, cf. [24]. As the main contribution of this work, we address this challenge by rigorously establishing that PCR is robust to noisy, sparse, and possibly mixed valued covariates. Specifically, under PCR, vanishing prediction error is achieved with the number of samples scaling as r max(σ2, ρ−4 log5(p)), where ρ denotes the fraction of observed (noisy) covariates. We establish generalization error bounds on the performance of PCR, which provides a systematic approach in selecting the correct number of components r in a data-driven manner. The key to our result is a simple, but powerful equivalence between (i) PCR and (ii) Linear Regression with covariate pre-processing via Hard Singular Value Thresholding (HSVT). From a technical standpoint, this work advances the state-of-the-art analysis for HSVT by establishing stronger guarantees with respect to the ∥·∥2, ∞-error for the estimated matrix rather than the Frobenius norm/mean-squared error (MSE) as is commonly done in the matrix estimation / completion literature.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Q-learning with Nearest Neighbors

• Devavrat Shah
• Qiaomin Xie

We consider model-free reinforcement learning for infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a continuous state space and unknown transition kernel, when only a single sample path under an arbitrary policy of the system is available. We consider the Nearest Neighbor Q-Learning (NNQL) algorithm to learn the optimal Q function using nearest neighbor regression method. As the main contribution, we provide tight finite sample analysis of the convergence rate. In particular, for MDPs with a $d$-dimensional state space and the discounted factor $\gamma \in (0, 1)$, given an arbitrary sample path with ``covering time'' $L$, we establish that the algorithm is guaranteed to output an $\varepsilon$-accurate estimate of the optimal Q-function using $\Ot(L/(\varepsilon^3(1-\gamma)^7))$ samples. For instance, for a well-behaved MDP, the covering time of the sample path under the purely random policy scales as $\Ot(1/\varepsilon^d), $ so the sample complexity scales as $\Ot(1/\varepsilon^{d+3}). $ Indeed, we establish a lower bound that argues that the dependence of $ \Omegat(1/\varepsilon^{d+2})$ is necessary.

JMLR Journal 2018 Journal Article

Robust Synthetic Control

• Muhammad Amjad
• Devavrat Shah
• Dennis Shen

We present a robust generalization of the synthetic control method for comparative case studies. Like the classical method cf. \cite{abadie3}, we present an algorithm to estimate the unobservable counterfactual of a treatment unit. A distinguishing feature of our algorithm is that of de-noising the data matrix via singular value thresholding, which renders our approach robust in multiple facets: it automatically identifies a good subset of donors for the synthetic control, overcomes the challenges of missing data, and continues to work well in settings where covariate information may not be provided. We posit that the setting can be viewed as an instance of the Latent Variable Model and provide the first finite sample analysis (coupled with asymptotic results) for the estimation of the counterfactual. Our algorithm accurately imputes missing entries and filters corrupted observations in producing a consistent estimator of the underlying signal matrix, provided $p = \Omega( T^{-1 + \zeta})$ for some $\zeta > 0$; here, $p$ is the fraction of observed data and $T$ is the time interval of interest. Under the same proportion of observations, we demonstrate that the mean-squared error in our counterfactual estimation scales as $\mathcal{O}(\sigma^2/p + 1/\sqrt{T})$, where $\sigma^2$ is the variance of the inherent noise. Additionally, we introduce a Bayesian framework to quantify the estimation uncertainty. Our experiments, using both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrate that our robust generalization yields an improvement over the classical synthetic control method. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2018. ( edit, beta )

NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Thy Friend is My Friend: Iterative Collaborative Filtering for Sparse Matrix Estimation

• Christian Borgs
• Jennifer Chayes
• Christina Lee
• Devavrat Shah

The sparse matrix estimation problem consists of estimating the distribution of an $n\times n$ matrix $Y$, from a sparsely observed single instance of this matrix where the entries of $Y$ are independent random variables. This captures a wide array of problems; special instances include matrix completion in the context of recommendation systems, graphon estimation, and community detection in (mixed membership) stochastic block models. Inspired by classical collaborative filtering for recommendation systems, we propose a novel iterative, collaborative filtering-style algorithm for matrix estimation in this generic setting. We show that the mean squared error (MSE) of our estimator converges to $0$ at the rate of $O(d^2 (pn)^{-2/5})$ as long as $\omega(d^5 n)$ random entries from a total of $n^2$ entries of $Y$ are observed (uniformly sampled), $\E[Y]$ has rank $d$, and the entries of $Y$ have bounded support. The maximum squared error across all entries converges to $0$ with high probability as long as we observe a little more, $\Omega(d^5 n \ln^5(n))$ entries. Our results are the best known sample complexity results in this generality.

NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Blind Regression: Nonparametric Regression for Latent Variable Models via Collaborative Filtering

• Dogyoon Song
• Christina Lee
• Yihua Li
• Devavrat Shah

We introduce the framework of {\em blind regression} motivated by {\em matrix completion} for recommendation systems: given $m$ users, $n$ movies, and a subset of user-movie ratings, the goal is to predict the unobserved user-movie ratings given the data, i. e. , to complete the partially observed matrix. Following the framework of non-parametric statistics, we posit that user $u$ and movie $i$ have features $x_1(u)$ and $x_2(i)$ respectively, and their corresponding rating $y(u, i)$ is a noisy measurement of $f(x_1(u), x_2(i))$ for some unknown function $f$. In contrast with classical regression, the features $x = (x_1(u), x_2(i))$ are not observed, making it challenging to apply standard regression methods to predict the unobserved ratings. Inspired by the classical Taylor's expansion for differentiable functions, we provide a prediction algorithm that is consistent for all Lipschitz functions. In fact, the analysis through our framework naturally leads to a variant of collaborative filtering, shedding insight into the widespread success of collaborative filtering in practice. Assuming each entry is sampled independently with probability at least $\max(m^{-1+\delta}, n^{-1/2+\delta})$ with $\delta > 0$, we prove that the expected fraction of our estimates with error greater than $\epsilon$ is less than $\gamma^2 / \epsilon^2$ plus a polynomially decaying term, where $\gamma^2$ is the variance of the additive entry-wise noise term. Experiments with the MovieLens and Netflix datasets suggest that our algorithm provides principled improvements over basic collaborative filtering and is competitive with matrix factorization methods.

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

A Latent Source Model for Online Collaborative Filtering

• Guy Bresler
• George Chen
• Devavrat Shah

Despite the prevalence of collaborative filtering in recommendation systems, there has been little theoretical development on why and how well it works, especially in the ``online'' setting, where items are recommended to users over time. We address this theoretical gap by introducing a model for online recommendation systems, cast item recommendation under the model as a learning problem, and analyze the performance of a cosine-similarity collaborative filtering method. In our model, each of $n$ users either likes or dislikes each of $m$ items. We assume there to be $k$ types of users, and all the users of a given type share a common string of probabilities determining the chance of liking each item. At each time step, we recommend an item to each user, where a key distinction from related bandit literature is that once a user consumes an item (e. g. , watches a movie), then that item cannot be recommended to the same user again. The goal is to maximize the number of likable items recommended to users over time. Our main result establishes that after nearly $\log(km)$ initial learning time steps, a simple collaborative filtering algorithm achieves essentially optimal performance without knowing $k$. The algorithm has an exploitation step that uses cosine similarity and two types of exploration steps, one to explore the space of items (standard in the literature) and the other to explore similarity between users (novel to this work).

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Hardness of parameter estimation in graphical models

• Guy Bresler
• David Gamarnik
• Devavrat Shah

We consider the problem of learning the canonical parameters specifying an undirected graphical model (Markov random field) from the mean parameters. For graphical models representing a minimal exponential family, the canonical parameters are uniquely determined by the mean parameters, so the problem is feasible in principle. The goal of this paper is to investigate the computational feasibility of this statistical task. Our main result shows that parameter estimation is in general intractable: no algorithm can learn the canonical parameters of a generic pair-wise binary graphical model from the mean parameters in time bounded by a polynomial in the number of variables (unless RP = NP). Indeed, such a result has been believed to be true (see the monograph by Wainwright and Jordan) but no proof was known. Our proof gives a polynomial time reduction from approximating the partition function of the hard-core model, known to be hard, to learning approximate parameters. Our reduction entails showing that the marginal polytope boundary has an inherent repulsive property, which validates an optimization procedure over the polytope that does not use any knowledge of its structure (as required by the ellipsoid method and others).

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Learning Mixed Multinomial Logit Model from Ordinal Data

• Sewoong Oh
• Devavrat Shah

Motivated by generating personalized recommendations using ordinal (or preference) data, we study the question of learning a mixture of MultiNomial Logit (MNL) model, a parameterized class of distributions over permutations, from partial ordinal or preference data (e. g. pair-wise comparisons). Despite its long standing importance across disciplines including social choice, operations research and revenue management, little is known about this question. In case of single MNL models (no mixture), computationally and statistically tractable learning from pair-wise comparisons is feasible. However, even learning mixture of two MNL model is infeasible in general. Given this state of affairs, we seek conditions under which it is feasible to learn the mixture model in both computationally and statistically efficient manner. To that end, we present a sufficient condition as well as an efficient algorithm for learning mixed MNL models from partial preferences/comparisons data. In particular, a mixture of $r$ MNL components over $n$ objects can be learnt using samples whose size scales polynomially in $n$ and $r$ (concretely, $n^3 r^{3. 5} \log^4 n$, with $r \ll n^{2/7}$ when the model parameters are sufficiently {\em incoherent}). The algorithm has two phases: first, learn the pair-wise marginals for each component using tensor decomposition; second, learn the model parameters for each component using RankCentrality introduced by Negahban et al. In the process of proving these results, we obtain a generalization of existing analysis for tensor decomposition to a more realistic regime where only partial information about each sample is available.

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Structure learning of antiferromagnetic Ising models

• Guy Bresler
• David Gamarnik
• Devavrat Shah

In this paper we investigate the computational complexity of learning the graph structure underlying a discrete undirected graphical model from i. i. d. samples. Our first result is an unconditional computational lower bound of $\Omega (p^{d/2})$ for learning general graphical models on $p$ nodes of maximum degree $d$, for the class of statistical algorithms recently introduced by Feldman et al. The construction is related to the notoriously difficult learning parities with noise problem in computational learning theory. Our lower bound shows that the $\widetilde O(p^{d+2})$ runtime required by Bresler, Mossel, and Sly's exhaustive-search algorithm cannot be significantly improved without restricting the class of models. Aside from structural assumptions on the graph such as it being a tree, hypertree, tree-like, etc. , most recent papers on structure learning assume that the model has the correlation decay property. Indeed, focusing on ferromagnetic Ising models, Bento and Montanari showed that all known low-complexity algorithms fail to learn simple graphs when the interaction strength exceeds a number related to the correlation decay threshold. Our second set of results gives a class of repelling (antiferromagnetic) models that have the \emph{opposite} behavior: very strong repelling allows efficient learning in time $\widetilde O(p^2)$. We provide an algorithm whose performance interpolates between $\widetilde O(p^2)$ and $\widetilde O(p^{d+2})$ depending on the strength of the repulsion.

NeurIPS Conference 2013 Conference Paper

A Latent Source Model for Nonparametric Time Series Classification

• George Chen
• Stanislav Nikolov
• Devavrat Shah

For classifying time series, a nearest-neighbor approach is widely used in practice with performance often competitive with or better than more elaborate methods such as neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines. We develop theoretical justification for the effectiveness of nearest-neighbor-like classification of time series. Our guiding hypothesis is that in many applications, such as forecasting which topics will become trends on Twitter, there aren't actually that many prototypical time series to begin with, relative to the number of time series we have access to, e. g. , topics become trends on Twitter only in a few distinct manners whereas we can collect massive amounts of Twitter data. To operationalize this hypothesis, we propose a latent source model for time series, which naturally leads to a weighted majority voting" classification rule that can be approximated by a nearest-neighbor classifier. We establish nonasymptotic performance guarantees of both weighted majority voting and nearest-neighbor classification under our model accounting for how much of the time series we observe and the model complexity. Experimental results on synthetic data show weighted majority voting achieving the same misclassification rate as nearest-neighbor classification while observing less of the time series. We then use weighted majority to forecast which news topics on Twitter become trends, where we are able to detect such "trending topics" in advance of Twitter 79% of the time, with a mean early advantage of 1 hour and 26 minutes, a true positive rate of 95%, and a false positive rate of 4%. "

NeurIPS Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Computing the Stationary Distribution Locally

• Christina Lee
• Asuman Ozdaglar
• Devavrat Shah

Computing the stationary distribution of a large finite or countably infinite state space Markov Chain (MC) has become central in many problems such as statistical inference and network analysis. Standard methods involve large matrix multiplications as in power iteration, or simulations of long random walks to sample states from the stationary distribution, as in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However these methods are computationally costly; either they involve operations at every state or they scale (in computation time) at least linearly in the size of the state space. In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm that answers whether a chosen state in a MC has stationary probability larger than some $\Delta \in (0, 1)$. If so, it estimates the stationary probability. Our algorithm uses information from a local neighborhood of the state on the graph induced by the MC, which has constant size relative to the state space. We provide correctness and convergence guarantees that depend on the algorithm parameters and mixing properties of the MC. Simulation results show MCs for which this method gives tight estimates.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Iterative ranking from pair-wise comparisons

• Sahand Negahban
• Sewoong Oh
• Devavrat Shah

The question of aggregating pairwise comparisons to obtain a global ranking over a collection of objects has been of interest for a very long time: be it ranking of online gamers (e. g. MSR’s TrueSkill system) and chess players, aggregating social opinions, or deciding which product to sell based on transactions. In most settings, in addition to obtaining ranking, finding ‘scores’ for each object (e. g. player’s rating) is of interest to understanding the intensity of the preferences. In this paper, we propose a novel iterative rank aggregation algorithm for discovering scores for objects from pairwise comparisons. The algorithm has a natural random walk interpretation over the graph of objects with edges present between two objects if they are compared; the scores turn out to be the stationary probability of this random walk. The algorithm is model independent. To establish the efficacy of our method, however, we consider the popular Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model in which each object has an associated score which determines the probabilistic outcomes of pairwise comparisons between objects. We bound the finite sample error rates between the scores assumed by the BTL model and those estimated by our algorithm. This, in essence, leads to order-optimal dependence on the number of samples required to learn the scores well by our algorithm. Indeed, the experimental evaluation shows that our (model independent) algorithm performs as well as the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the BTL model and outperforms a recently proposed algorithm by Ammar and Shah [1].

NeurIPS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Iterative Learning for Reliable Crowdsourcing Systems

• David Karger
• Sewoong Oh
• Devavrat Shah

Crowdsourcing systems, in which tasks are electronically distributed to numerous ``information piece-workers'', have emerged as an effective paradigm for human-powered solving of large scale problems in domains such as image classification, data entry, optical character recognition, recommendation, and proofreading. Because these low-paid workers can be unreliable, nearly all crowdsourcers must devise schemes to increase confidence in their answers, typically by assigning each task multiple times and combining the answers in some way such as majority voting. In this paper, we consider a general model of such rowdsourcing tasks, and pose the problem of minimizing the total price (i. e. , number of task assignments) that must be paid to achieve a target overall reliability. We give new algorithms for deciding which tasks to assign to which workers and for inferring correct answers from the workers’ answers. We show that our algorithm significantly outperforms majority voting and, in fact, are asymptotically optimal through comparison to an oracle that knows the reliability of every worker.

FOCS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Medium Access Using Queues

• Devavrat Shah
• Jinwoo Shin
• Prasad Tetali

Consider a wireless network of n nodes represented by a (undirected) graph G where an edge (i, j) models the fact that transmissions of i and j interfere with each other, i. e. simultaneous transmissions of i and j become unsuccessful. Hence it is required that at each time instance a set of non-interfering nodes (corresponding to an independent set in G) access the wireless medium. To utilize wireless resources efficiently, it is required to arbitrate the access of medium among interfering nodes properly. Moreover, to be of practical use, such a mechanism is required to be totally distributed as well as simple. As the main result of this paper, we provide such a medium access algorithm. It is randomized, totally distributed and simple: each node attempts to access medium at each time with probability that is a function of its local information. We establish efficiency of the algorithm by showing that the corresponding network Markov chain is positive recurrent as long as the demand imposed on the network can be supported by the wireless network (using any algorithm). In that sense, the proposed algorithm is optimal in terms of utilizing wireless resources. The algorithm is oblivious to the network graph structure, in contrast with the so-called polynomial back-off algorithm by Hastad-Leighton-Rogoff (STOC '87, SICOMP '96) that is established to be optimal for the complete graph and bipartite graphs (by Goldberg-MacKenzie (SODA '96, JCSS '99)).

SODA Conference 2010 Conference Paper

Belief Propagation for Min-cost Network Flow: Convergence & Correctness

• David Gamarnik
• Devavrat Shah
• Yehua Wei

We formulate a Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm in the context of the capacitated minimum-cost network flow problem (ℳ ℱ). Unlike most of the instances of BP studied in the past, the messages of BP in the context of this problem are piecewise-linear functions. We prove that BP converges to the optimal solution in pseudo-polynomial time, provided that the optimal solution is unique and the problem input is integral. Moreover, we present a simple modification of the BP algorithm which gives a fully polynomial-time randomized approximation scheme (FPRAS) for ℳ ℱ. This is the first instance where BP is proved to have fully-polynomial running time.

NeurIPS Conference 2009 Conference Paper

A Data-Driven Approach to Modeling Choice

• Vivek Farias
• Srikanth Jagabathula
• Devavrat Shah

We visit the following fundamental problem: For a `generic model of consumer choice (namely, distributions over preference lists) and a limited amount of data on how consumers actually make decisions (such as marginal preference information), how may one predict revenues from offering a particular assortment of choices? This problem is central to areas within operations research, marketing and econometrics. We present a framework to answer such questions and design a number of tractable algorithms (from a data and computational standpoint) for the same.

NeurIPS Conference 2009 Conference Paper

Local Rules for Global MAP: When Do They Work ?

• Kyomin Jung
• Pushmeet Kohli
• Devavrat Shah

We consider the question of computing Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) assignment in an arbitrary pair-wise Markov Random Field (MRF). We present a randomized iterative algorithm based on simple local updates. The algorithm, starting with an arbitrary initial assignment, updates it in each iteration by first, picking a random node, then selecting an (appropriately chosen) random local neighborhood and optimizing over this local neighborhood. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that this algorithm finds a near optimal assignment within $2n\ln n$ iterations on average and with high probability for {\em any} $n$ node pair-wise MRF with {\em geometry} (i. e. MRF graph with polynomial growth) with the approximation error depending on (in a reasonable manner) the geometric growth rate of the graph and the average radius of the local neighborhood -- this allows for a graceful tradeoff between the complexity of the algorithm and the approximation error. Through extensive simulations, we show that our algorithm finds extremely good approximate solutions for various kinds of MRFs with geometry.

NeurIPS Conference 2008 Conference Paper

Inferring rankings under constrained sensing

• Srikanth Jagabathula
• Devavrat Shah

Motivated by applications like elections, web-page ranking, revenue maximization etc. , we consider the question of inferring popular rankings using constrained data. More specifically, we consider the problem of inferring a probability distribution over the group of permutations using its first order marginals. We first prove that it is not possible to recover more than O(n) permutations over n elements with the given information. We then provide a simple and novel algorithm that can recover up to O(n) permutations under a natural stochastic model; in this sense, the algorithm is optimal. In certain applications, the interest is in recovering only the most popular (or mode) ranking. As a second result, we provide an algorithm based on the Fourier Transform over the symmetric group to recover the mode under a natural majority condition; the algorithm turns out to be a maximum weight matching on an appropriately defined weighted bipartite graph. The questions considered are also thematically related to Fourier Transforms over the symmetric group and the currently popular topic of compressed sensing.

SODA Conference 2007 Conference Paper

Counting good truth assignments of random k -SAT formulae

• Andrea Montanari
• Devavrat Shah

NeurIPS Conference 2007 Conference Paper

Local Algorithms for Approximate Inference in Minor-Excluded Graphs

• Kyomin Jung
• Devavrat Shah

We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing MAP and log-partition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say G. Our algorithm is based on decomposing G into appropriately chosen small components; computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a good global solution. We prove that the algorithm can provide approximate solution within arbitrary accuracy when $G$ excludes some finite sized graph as its minor and G has bounded degree: all Planar graphs with bounded degree are examples of such graphs. The running time of the algorithm is $\Theta(n)$ (n is the number of nodes in G), with constant dependent on accuracy, degree of graph and size of the graph that is excluded as a minor (constant for Planar graphs). Our algorithm for minor-excluded graphs uses the decomposition scheme of Klein, Plotkin and Rao (1993). In general, our algorithm works with any decomposition scheme and provides quantifiable approximation guarantee that depends on the decomposition scheme.

NeurIPS Conference 2007 Conference Paper

Message Passing for Max-weight Independent Set

• Sujay Sanghavi
• Devavrat Shah
• Alan Willsky

We investigate the use of message-passing algorithms for the problem of finding the max-weight independent set (MWIS) in a graph. First, we study the perfor- mance of loopy max-product belief propagation. We show that, if it converges, the quality of the estimate is closely related to the tightness of an LP relaxation of the MWIS problem. We use this relationship to obtain sufficient conditions for correctness of the estimate. We then develop a modification of max-product – one that converges to an optimal solution of the dual of the MWIS problem. We also develop a simple iterative algorithm for estimating the max-weight independent set from this dual solution. We show that the MWIS estimate obtained using these two algorithms in conjunction is correct when the graph is bipartite and the MWIS is unique. Finally, we show that any problem of MAP estimation for probability distributions over finite domains can be reduced to an MWIS problem. We believe this reduction will yield new insights and algorithms for MAP estimation.

FOCS Conference 2003 Conference Paper

Switch Scheduling via Randomized Edge Coloring

• Gagan Aggarwal
• Rajeev Motwani 0001
• Devavrat Shah
• An Zhu

The essence of an Internet router is an n /spl times/ n switch which routes packets from input to output ports. Such a switch can be viewed as a bipartite graph with the input and output ports as the two vertex sets. Packets arriving at input port i and destined for output port j can be modeled as an edge from i to j. Current switch scheduling algorithms view the routing of packets at each time step as a selection of a bipartite matching. We take the view that the switch scheduling problem across a sequence of time-steps is an instance of the edge coloring problem for a bipartite multigraph. Implementation considerations lead us to seek edge coloring algorithms for bipartite multigraphs that are fast, decentralized, and online. We present a randomized algorithm which has the desired properties, and uses only a near-optimal /spl Delta/ + o(/spl Delta/) colors on dense bipartite graphs arising in the context of switch scheduling. This algorithm extends to non-bipartite graphs as well. It leads to a novel switch scheduling algorithm which, for stochastic online edge arrivals, is stable, i. e. the queue length at each input port is bounded at all times. We note that this is the first decentralized switch scheduling algorithm that is also guaranteed to be stable.

FOCS Conference 2002 Conference Paper

Load Balancing with Memory

• Michael Mitzenmacher
• Balaji Prabhakar
• Devavrat Shah

A standard load balancing model considers placing n balls into n bins by choosing d possible locations for each ball independently and uniformly at random and sequentially placing each in the least loaded of its chosen bins. It is well known that allowing just a small amount of choice (d = 2) greatly improves performance over random placement (d = 1). In this paper, we show that similar performance gains occur by introducing memory. We focus on the situation where each time a ball is placed, the least loaded of that ball's choices after placement is remembered and used as one of the possible choices for the next ball. For example, we show that when each ball gets just one random choice, but can also choose the best of the last ball's choices, the maximum number of balls in a bin is log log n/2 log /spl phi/ + O(1) with high probability, where /spl phi/ = (1 + /spl radic/5)/2 is the golden ratio. The asymptotic performance is therefore better with one random choice and one choice from memory than with two fresh random choices for each ball; the performance with memory asymptotically matches the asymmetric policy, using two choices introduced by Vocking (1999). More generally, we find that a small amount of memory, like a small amount of choice, can dramatically improve the load balancing performance. We also investigate continuous time variations corresponding to queueing systems, where we find similar results.