David Simchi-Levi

TMLR Journal 2026 Journal Article

GenAI vs. Human Creators: Procurement Mechanism Design in Two-/Three-Layer Markets

• Rui Ai
• David Simchi-Levi
• Haifeng Xu

With the rapid advancement of generative AI (GenAI), mechanism design adapted to its unique characteristics poses new theoretical and practical challenges. Unlike traditional goods, content from one domain can enhance the training and performance of GenAI models in other domains. For example, OpenAI’s video generation model Sora (Liu et al., 2024b) relies heavily on image data to improve video generation quality. In this work, we study nonlinear procurement mechanism design under data transferability, where online platforms employ both human creators and GenAI to satisfy cross-domain content demand. We propose optimal mechanisms that maximize either platform revenue or social welfare and identify the specific properties of GenAI that make such high-dimensional design problems tractable. Our analysis further reveals which domains face stronger competitive pressure and which tend to experience overproduction. Moreover, the growing role of data intermediaries, including labeling companies such as Scale AI and creator organizations such as The Wall Street Journal, introduces a third layer into the traditional platform–creator structure. We show that this three-layer market can result in a lose-lose outcome, reducing both platform revenue and social welfare, as large pre-signed contracts distort creators’ incentives and lead to inefficiencies in the data market. These findings suggest a need for government regulation of the GenAI data ecosystem, and our theoretical insights are further supported by numerical simulations.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Adaptive Variance Inflation in Thompson Sampling: Efficiency, Safety, Robustness, and Beyond

• Feng Zhu
• David Simchi-Levi

Thompson Sampling (TS) has emerged as a powerful algorithm for sequential decision-making, with strong empirical success and theoretical guarantees. However, it has been shown that its behavior under stringent safety and robustness criteria --- such as safety of cumulative regret distribution and robustness to model mis-specification --- can sometimes perform poorly. In this work, we try to address these aspects through the lens of adaptive variance inflation for Gaussian Thompson Sampling. Our one-line change introduces a time- and arm-dependent inflation factor into the sampling variance, and yields several compelling benefits. The resulting policy achieves provably worst-case optimal expected regret and worst-case optimal fast-decaying regret tail bounds, even in the presence of heavy-tailed (sub-exponential) noise or mis-specified environments. The policy is also robust to mis-specified noise variances. Beyond cumulative regret, we further demonstrate that our method ensures strong post-experiment guarantees: simple regret and estimation error per arm exhibit fast-decaying tail probabilities, contributing to more reliable and robust downstream decisions. Finally, we extend our policy to incorporate settings with unknown arm-specific variances and empirically validate the consistent performance of our approach across a range of environments.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Contextual Online Decision Making with Infinite-Dimensional Functional Regression

• Haichen Hu
• Rui Ai 0004
• Stephen Bates
• David Simchi-Levi

Contextual sequential decision-making is fundamental to machine learning, with applications in bandits, sequential hypothesis testing, and online risk control. These tasks often rely on statistical measures like expectation, variance, and quantiles. In this paper, we propose a universal algorithmic framework that learns the full underlying distribution, enabling a unified approach to all contextual online decision-making problems. The challenge lies in the uncountably infinite-dimensional regression, where existing contextual bandit algorithms all yield infinite regret. We innovatively propose an efficient infinite-dimensional functional regression oracle for contextual cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and model every datum as a combination of context-dependent CDF basis functions. Our analysis reveals that the decay rate of the eigenvalue sequence of the design integral operator governs the regression error rate, and consequently, the utility regret rate. Specifically, when the eigenvalue sequence exhibits a polynomial decay of order $\frac{1}{\gamma}\ge 1$, the utility regret is bounded by $\tilde{O}( T^{\frac{3\gamma+2}{2(\gamma+2)}})$. The case that $\gamma=0$ can recover the existing optimal rate in contextual bandits literature with finite-dimensional regression and so as exponential decay. We also provide a numerical method to compute the eigenvalue sequence of integral operators, enabling the practical implementation of our framework.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Learning to price with resource constraints: from full information to machine-learned prices

• Ruicheng Ao
• Jiashuo Jiang
• David Simchi-Levi

Dynamic pricing with resource constraints is a critical challenge in online learning, requiring a delicate balance between exploring unknown demand patterns and exploiting known information to maximize revenue. We propose three tailored algorithms to address this problem across varying levels of prior knowledge: (1) a Boundary Attracted Re-solve Method for the full information setting, achieving logarithmic regret without the restrictive non-degeneracy condition; (2) an online learning algorithm for the no information setting, delivering an optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret; and (3) an estimate-then-select re-solve algorithm for the informed price setting, leveraging machine-learned prices with known error bounds to bridge the gap between full and no information scenarios. Moreover, through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the robustness and practical applicability of our approaches. This work advances dynamic pricing by offering scalable solutions that adapt to diverse informational contexts while relaxing classical assumptions.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Dynamic Service Fee Pricing under Strategic Behavior: Actions as Instruments and Phase Transition

• Rui Ai
• David Simchi-Levi
• Feng Zhu

We study a dynamic pricing problem for third-party platform service fees under strategic, far-sighted customers. In each time period, the platform sets a service fee based on historical data, observes the resulting transaction quantities, and collects revenue. The platform also monitors equilibrium prices influenced by both demand and supply. The objective is to maximize total revenue over a time horizon $T$. Our problem incorporates three practical challenges: (a) initially, the platform lacks knowledge of the demand side beforehand, necessitating a balance between exploring (learning the demand curve) and exploiting (maximizing revenue) simultaneously; (b) since only equilibrium prices and quantities are observable, traditional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators would be biased and inconsistent; (c) buyers are rational and strategic, seeking to maximize their consumer surplus and potentially misrepresenting their preferences. To address these challenges, we propose novel algorithmic solutions. Our approach involves: (i) a carefully designed active randomness injection to balance exploration and exploitation effectively; (ii) using non-i. i. d. actions as instrumental variables (IV) to consistently estimate demand; (iii) a low-switching cost design that promotes nearly truthful buyer behavior. We show an expected regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} (\sqrt{T}\wedge\sigma_S^{-2})$ and demonstrate its optimality, up to logarithmic factors, with respect to both the time horizon $T$ and the randomness in supply $\sigma_S$. Despite its simplicity, our model offers valuable insights into the use of actions as estimation instruments, the benefits of low-switching pricing policies in mitigating strategic buyer behavior, and the role of supply randomness in facilitating exploration which leads to a phase transition of policy performance.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Offline Oracle-Efficient Learning for Contextual MDPs via Layerwise Exploration-Exploitation Tradeoff

• Jian Qian
• Haichen Hu
• David Simchi-Levi

Motivated by the recent discovery of a statistical and computational reduction from contextual bandits to offline regression \citep{simchi2020bypassing}, we address the general (stochastic) Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) problem with horizon $H$ (as known as CMDP with $H$ layers). In this paper, we introduce a reduction from CMDPs to offline density estimation under the realizability assumption, i. e. , a model class $\mathcal{M}$ containing the true underlying CMDP is provided in advance. We develop an efficient, statistically near-optimal algorithm requiring only $O(H \log T)$ calls to an offline density estimation algorithm (or oracle) across all $T$ rounds. This number can be further reduced to $O(H \log \log T)$ if $T$ is known in advance. Our results mark the first efficient and near-optimal reduction from CMDPs to offline density estimation without imposing any structural assumptions on the model class. A notable feature of our algorithm is the design of a layerwise exploration-exploitation tradeoff tailored to address the layerwise structure of CMDPs. Additionally, our algorithm is versatile and applicable to pure exploration tasks in reward-free reinforcement learning.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Privacy Preserving Adaptive Experiment Design

• Jiachun Li
• Kaining Shi
• David Simchi-Levi

Adaptive experiment is widely adopted to estimate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) in clinical trials and many other scenarios. While the primary goal in experiment is to maximize estimation accuracy, due to the imperative of social welfare, it’s also crucial to provide treatment with superior outcomes to patients, which is measured by regret in contextual bandit framework. Furthermore, privacy concerns arise in clinical scenarios containing sensitive data like patients health records. Therefore, it’s essential for the treatment allocation mechanism to incorporate robust privacy protection measures. In this paper, we investigate the tradeoff between loss of social welfare and statistical power of CATE estimation in contextual bandit experiment. We propose a matched upper and lower bound for the multi-objective optimization problem, and then adopt the concept of Pareto optimality to mathematically characterize the optimality condition. Furthermore, we propose differentially private algorithms which still matches the lower bound, showing that privacy is "almost free". Additionally, we derive the asymptotic normality of the estimator, which is essential in statistical inference and hypothesis testing.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Non-stationary Experimental Design under Linear Trends

• David Simchi-Levi
• Chonghuan Wang
• Zeyu Zheng

Experimentation has been critical and increasingly popular across various domains, such as clinical trials and online platforms, due to its widely recognized benefits. One of the primary objectives of classical experiments is to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) to inform future decision-making. However, in healthcare and many other settings, treatment effects may be non-stationary, meaning that they can change over time, rendering the traditional experimental design inadequate and the classical static ATE uninformative. In this work, we address the problem of non-stationary experimental design under linear trends by considering two objectives: estimating the dynamic treatment effect and minimizing welfare loss within the experiment. We propose an efficient design that can be customized for optimal estimation error rate, optimal regret rate, or the Pareto optimal trade-off between the two objectives. We establish information-theoretical lower bounds that highlight the inherent challenge in estimating dynamic treatment effects and minimizing welfare loss, and also statistically reveal the fundamental trade-off between them.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Pricing Experimental Design: Causal Effect, Expected Revenue and Tail Risk

• David Simchi-Levi
• Chonghuan Wang

When launching a new product, historical sales data is often not available, leaving price as a crucial experimental instrument for sellers to gauge market response. When designing pricing experiments, there are three fundamental objectives: estimating the causal effect of price (i. e. , price elasticity), maximizing the expected revenue through the experiment, and controlling the tail risk suffering from a very huge loss. In this paper, we reveal the relationship among such three objectives. Under a linear structural model, we investigate the trade-offs between causal inference and expected revenue maximization, as well as between expected revenue maximization and tail risk control. Furthermore, we propose an optimal pricing experimental design, which can flexibly adapt to different desired levels of trade-offs. Through the optimal design, we also explore the relationship between causal inference and tail risk control.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Stochastic Multi-armed Bandits: Optimal Trade-off among Optimality, Consistency, and Tail Risk

• David Simchi-Levi
• Zeyu Zheng
• Feng Zhu

We consider the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and fully characterize the interplays among three desired properties for policy design: worst-case optimality, instance-dependent consistency, and light-tailed risk. We show how the order of expected regret exactly affects the decaying rate of the regret tail probability for both the worst-case and instance-dependent scenario. A novel policy is proposed to achieve the optimal regret tail risk for any regret threshold. Concretely, for any given $\alpha\in[1/2, 1)$ and $\beta\in[0, 1)$, our policy achieves a worst-case expected regret of $\tilde O(T^\alpha)$ and instance-dependent expected regret of $\tilde O(T^\beta)$, while enjoys a probability of incurring an $\Omega(T^\delta)$ regret that decays exponentially with a polynomial $T$ term. Such decaying rate is proved to be best achievable. We also generalize our analysis to the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with non-stationary baseline rewards, where in each time period $t$, the decision maker pulls one of $K$ arms and collects a reward which is the sum of three terms: the mean of the pulled arm, an independent noise, and a non-stationary baseline reward as a function of $t$. Our results reveal insights on the trade-off between expected regret and tail risk for both worst-case and instance-dependent scenario, indicating that more sub-optimality and inconsistency leaves space for more light-tailed risk of incurring a large regret.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

A Simple and Optimal Policy Design for Online Learning with Safety against Heavy-tailed Risk

• David Simchi-Levi
• Zeyu Zheng
• Feng Zhu

We consider the classical multi-armed bandit problem and design simple-to-implement new policies that simultaneously enjoy two properties: worst-case optimality for the expected regret, and safety against heavy-tailed risk for the regret distribution. Recently, Fan and Glynn (2021) showed that information-theoretic optimized bandit policies as well as standard UCB policies suffer from some serious heavy-tailed risk; that is, the probability of incurring a linear regret slowly decays at a polynomial rate of $1/T$, as $T$ (the time horizon) increases. Inspired by their result, we further show that any policy that incurs an instance-dependent $O(\ln T)$ regret must incur a linear regret with probability $\Omega(\mathrm{poly}(1/T))$ and that the heavy-tailed risk actually exists for all "instance-dependent consistent" policies. Next, for the two-armed bandit setting, we provide a simple policy design that (i) has the worst-case optimality for the expected regret at order $\tilde O(\sqrt{T})$ and (ii) has the worst-case tail probability of incurring a linear regret decay at an exponential rate $\exp(-\Omega(\sqrt{T}))$. We further prove that this exponential decaying rate of the tail probability is optimal across all policies that have worst-case optimality for the expected regret. Finally, we generalize the policy design and analysis to the general setting with an arbitrary $K$ number of arms. We provide detailed characterization of the tail probability bound for any regret threshold under our policy design. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the theoretical findings. Our results reveal insights on the incompatibility between consistency and light-tailed risk, whereas indicate that worst-case optimality on expected regret and light-tailed risk are compatible.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Context-Based Dynamic Pricing with Partially Linear Demand Model

• Jinzhi Bu
• David Simchi-Levi
• Chonghuan Wang

In today’s data-rich environment, context-based dynamic pricing has gained much attention. To model the demand as a function of price and context, the existing literature either adopts a parametric model or a non-parametric model. The former is easier to implement but may suffer from model mis-specification, whereas the latter is more robust but does not leverage many structural properties of the underlying problem. This paper combines these two approaches by studying the context-based dynamic pricing with online learning, where the unknown expected demand admits a semi-parametric partially linear structure. Specifically, we consider two demand models, whose expected demand at price $p$ and context $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ is given by $bp+g(x)$ and $ f(p)+ a^\top x$ respectively. We assume that $g(x)$ is $\beta$-H{\"o}lder continuous in the first model, and $f(p)$ is $k$th-order smooth with an additional parameter $\delta$ in the second model. For both models, we design an efficient online learning algorithm with provable regret upper bounds, and establish matching lower bounds. This enables us to characterize the statistical complexity for the two learning models, whose optimal regret rates are $\widetilde \Theta(\sqrt T \vee T^{\frac{d}{d+2\beta}})$ and $\widetilde \Theta(\sqrt T \vee (\delta T^{k+1})^{\frac{1}{2k+1}})$ respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that our learning algorithms are more effective than benchmark algorithms, and also reveal the effects of parameters $d$, $\beta$ and $\delta$ on the algorithm's empirical regret, which are consistent with our theoretical findings.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Learning Mixed Multinomial Logits with Provable Guarantees

• Yiqun Hu
• David Simchi-Levi
• Zhenzhen Yan

A mixture of multinomial logits (MMNL) generalizes the single logit model, which is commonly used in predicting the probabilities of different outcomes. While extensive algorithms have been developed in the literature to learn MMNL models, theoretical results are limited. Built on the Frank-Wolfe (FW) method, we propose a new algorithm that learns both mixture weights and component-specific logit parameters with provable convergence guarantees for an arbitrary number of mixtures. Our algorithm utilizes historical choice data to generate a set of candidate choice probability vectors, each being close to the ground truth with a high probability. We further provide a sample complexity analysis to show that only a polynomial number of samples is required to secure the performance guarantee of our algorithm. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate the performance and demonstrate how to apply our algorithm to real-world applications.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Dynamic Planning and Learning under Recovering Rewards

• David Simchi-Levi
• Zeyu Zheng 0002
• Feng Zhu

Motivated by emerging applications such as live-streaming e-commerce, promotions and recommendations, we introduce a general class of multi-armed bandit problems that have the following two features: (i) the decision maker can pull and collect rewards from at most $K$ out of $N$ different arms in each time period; (ii) the expected reward of an arm immediately drops after it is pulled, and then non-parametrically recovers as the idle time increases. With the objective of maximizing expected cumulative rewards over $T$ time periods, we propose, construct and prove performance guarantees for a class of “Purely Periodic Policies”. For the offline problem when all model parameters are known, our proposed policy obtains an approximation ratio that is at the order of $1-\mathcal O(1/\sqrt{K})$, which is asymptotically optimal when $K$ grows to infinity. For the online problem when the model parameters are unknown and need to be learned, we design an Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) based policy that approximately has $\widetilde{\mathcal O}(N\sqrt{T})$ regret against the offline benchmark. Our framework and policy design may have the potential to be adapted into other offline planning and online learning applications with non-stationary and recovering rewards.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Near-Optimal Model-Free Reinforcement Learning in Non-Stationary Episodic MDPs

• Weichao Mao
• Kaiqing Zhang
• Ruihao Zhu
• David Simchi-Levi
• Tamer Basar

We consider model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary Markov decision processes. Both the reward functions and the state transition functions are allowed to vary arbitrarily over time as long as their cumulative variations do not exceed certain variation budgets. We propose Restarted Q-Learning with Upper Confidence Bounds (RestartQ-UCB), the first model-free algorithm for non-stationary RL, and show that it outperforms existing solutions in terms of dynamic regret. Specifically, RestartQ-UCB with Freedman-type bonus terms achieves a dynamic regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(S^{\frac{1}{3}} A^{\frac{1}{3}} \Delta^{\frac{1}{3}} H T^{\frac{2}{3}})$, where $S$ and $A$ are the numbers of states and actions, respectively, $\Delta>0$ is the variation budget, $H$ is the number of time steps per episode, and $T$ is the total number of time steps. We further show that our algorithm is \emph{nearly optimal} by establishing an information-theoretical lower bound of $\Omega(S^{\frac{1}{3}} A^{\frac{1}{3}} \Delta^{\frac{1}{3}} H^{\frac{2}{3}} T^{\frac{2}{3}})$, the first lower bound in non-stationary RL. Numerical experiments validate the advantages of RestartQ-UCB in terms of both cumulative rewards and computational efficiency. We further demonstrate the power of our results in the context of multi-agent RL, where non-stationarity is a key challenge.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Online Pricing with Offline Data: Phase Transition and Inverse Square Law

• Jinzhi Bu
• David Simchi-Levi
• Yunzong Xu

This paper investigates the impact of pre-existing offline data on online learning, in the context of dynamic pricing. We study a single-product dynamic pricing problem over a selling horizon of T periods. The demand in each period is determined by the price of the product according to a linear demand model with unknown parameters. We assume that the seller already has some pre-existing offline data before the start of the selling horizon. The seller wants to utilize both the pre-existing offline data and the sequential online data to minimize the regret of the online learning process. We characterize the joint effect of the size, location and dispersion of the offline data on the optimal regret of the online learning process. Our results reveal surprising transformations of the optimal regret rate with respect to the size of the offline data, which we refer to as phase transitions. In addition, our results demonstrate that the location and dispersion of the offline data also have an intrinsic effect on the optimal regret, and we quantify this effect via the inverse-square law.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Reinforcement Learning for Non-Stationary Markov Decision Processes: The Blessing of (More) Optimism

• Wang Chi Cheung
• David Simchi-Levi
• Ruihao Zhu

We consider un-discounted reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov decision processes (MDPs) under drifting non-stationarity, \ie, both the reward and state transition distributions are allowed to evolve over time, as long as their respective total variations, quantified by suitable metrics, do not exceed certain \emph{variation budgets}. We first develop the Sliding Window Upper-Confidence bound for Reinforcement Learning with Confidence Widening (\texttt{SWUCRL2-CW}) algorithm, and establish its dynamic regret bound when the variation budgets are known. In addition, we propose the Bandit-over-Reinforcement Learning (\texttt{BORL}) algorithm to adaptively tune the \sw to achieve the same dynamic regret bound, but in a \emph{parameter-free} manner, \ie, without knowing the variation budgets. Notably, learning drifting MDPs via conventional optimistic exploration presents a unique challenge absent in existing (non-stationary) bandit learning settings. We overcome the challenge by a novel confidence widening technique that incorporates additional optimism.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Phase Transitions and Cyclic Phenomena in Bandits with Switching Constraints

• David Simchi-Levi
• Yunzong Xu

We consider the classical stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with a constraint on the total cost incurred by switching between actions. Under the unit switching cost structure, where the constraint limits the total number of switches, we prove matching upper and lower bounds on regret and provide near-optimal algorithms for this problem. Surprisingly, we discover phase transitions and cyclic phenomena of the optimal regret. That is, we show that associated with the multi-armed bandit problem, there are equal-length phases defined by the number of arms and switching costs, where the regret upper and lower bounds in each phase remain the same and drop significantly between phases. The results enable us to fully characterize the trade-off between regret and incurred switching cost in the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, contributing new insights to this fundamental problem. Under the general switching cost structure, our analysis reveals a surprising connection between the bandit problem and the shortest Hamiltonian path problem.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

The Lingering of Gradients: How to Reuse Gradients Over Time

• Zeyuan Allen-Zhu
• David Simchi-Levi
• Xinshang Wang

Classically, the time complexity of a first-order method is estimated by its number of gradient computations. In this paper, we study a more refined complexity by taking into account the ``lingering'' of gradients: once a gradient is computed at $x_k$, the additional time to compute gradients at $x_{k+1}, x_{k+2}, \dots$ may be reduced. We show how this improves the running time of gradient descent and SVRG. For instance, if the "additional time'' scales linearly with respect to the traveled distance, then the "convergence rate'' of gradient descent can be improved from $1/T$ to $\exp(-T^{1/3})$. On the empirical side, we solve a hypothetical revenue management problem on the Yahoo! Front Page Today Module application with 4. 6m users to $10^{-6}$ error (or $10^{-12}$ dual error) using 6 passes of the dataset.

SODA Conference 2008 Conference Paper

Fully polynomial time approximation schemes for stochastic dynamic programs

• Nir Halman
• Diego Klabjan
• Chung-Lun Li
• James B. Orlin
• David Simchi-Levi