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David Rügamer

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17 papers

2 author rows

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Adjustment for Confounding using Pre-Trained Representations

Rickmer Schulte
David Rügamer
Thomas Nagler

There is growing interest in extending average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to incorporate non-tabular data, such as images and text, which may act as sources of confounding. Neglecting these effects risks biased results and flawed scientific conclusions. However, incorporating non-tabular data necessitates sophisticated feature extractors, often in combination with ideas of transfer learning. In this work, we investigate how latent features from pre-trained neural networks can be leveraged to adjust for sources of confounding. We formalize conditions under which these latent features enable valid adjustment and statistical inference in ATE estimation, demonstrating results along the example of double machine learning. We discuss critical challenges inherent to latent feature learning and downstream parameter estimation arising from the high dimensionality and non-identifiability of representations. Common structural assumptions for obtaining fast convergence rates with additive or sparse linear models are shown to be unrealistic for latent features. We argue, however, that neural networks are largely insensitive to these issues. In particular, we show that neural networks can achieve fast convergence rates by adapting to intrinsic notions of sparsity and dimension of the learning problem.

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ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Calibrating LLMs with Information-Theoretic Evidential Deep Learning

Yawei Li
David Rügamer
Bernd Bischl
Mina Rezaei

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware approach, enables uncertainty estimation in a single forward pass, making it a promising method for calibrating fine-tuned LLMs. However, despite its computational efficiency, EDL is prone to overfitting, as its training objective can result in overly concentrated probability distributions. To mitigate this, we propose regularizing EDL by incorporating an information bottleneck (IB). Our approach IB-EDL suppresses spurious information in the evidence generated by the model and encourages truly predictive information to influence both the predictions and uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments across various fine-tuned LLMs and tasks demonstrate that IB-EDL outperforms both existing EDL and non-EDL approaches. By improving the trustworthiness of LLMs, IB-EDL facilitates their broader adoption in domains requiring high levels of confidence calibration.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Can Transformers Learn Full Bayesian Inference in Context?

Arik Reuter
Tim G. J. Rudner
Vincent Fortuin
David Rügamer

Transformers have emerged as the dominant architecture in the field of deep learning, with a broad range of applications and remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. While not yet fully understood, ICL has already proved to be an intriguing phenomenon, allowing transformers to learn in context—without requiring further training. In this paper, we further advance the understanding of ICL by demonstrating that transformers can perform full Bayesian inference for commonly used statistical models in context. More specifically, we introduce a general framework that builds on ideas from prior fitted networks and continuous normalizing flows and enables us to infer complex posterior distributions for models such as generalized linear models and latent factor models. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our ICL approach yields posterior samples that are similar in quality to state-of-the-art MCMC or variational inference methods that do not operate in context. The source code for this paper is available at https: //github. com/ArikReuter/ICL_for_Full_Bayesian_Inference

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ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Deep Weight Factorization: Sparse Learning Through the Lens of Artificial Symmetries

Chris Kolb
Tobias Weber
Bernd Bischl
David Rügamer

Sparse regularization techniques are well-established in machine learning, yet their application in neural networks remains challenging due to the non-differentiability of penalties like the $L_1$ norm, which is incompatible with stochastic gradient descent. A promising alternative is shallow weight factorization, where weights are decomposed into two factors, allowing for smooth optimization of $L_1$-penalized neural networks by adding differentiable $L_2$ regularization to the factors. In this work, we introduce deep weight factorization, extending previous shallow approaches to more than two factors. We theoretically establish equivalence of our deep factorization with non-convex sparse regularization and analyze its impact on training dynamics and optimization. Due to the limitations posed by standard training practices, we propose a tailored initialization scheme and identify important learning rate requirements necessary for training factorized networks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our deep weight factorization through experiments on various architectures and datasets, consistently outperforming its shallow counterpart and widely used pruning methods.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Differentiable Sparsity via $D$-Gating: Simple and Versatile Structured Penalization

Chris Kolb
Laetitia Frost
Bernd Bischl
David Rügamer

Structured sparsity regularization offers a principled way to compact neural networks, but its non-differentiability breaks compatibility with conventional stochastic gradient descent and requires either specialized optimizers or additional post-hoc pruning without formal guarantees. In this work, we propose $D$-Gating, a fully differentiable structured overparameterization that splits each group of weights into a primary weight vector and multiple scalar gating factors. We prove that any local minimum under $D$-Gating is also a local minimum using non-smooth structured $L_{2, 2/D}$ penalization, and further show that the $D$-Gating objective converges at least exponentially fast to the $L_{2, 2/D}$–regularized loss in the gradient flow limit. Together, our results show that $D$-Gating is theoretically equivalent to solving the original group sparsity problem, yet induces distinct learning dynamics that evolve from a non-sparse regime into sparse optimization. We validate our theory across vision, language, and tabular tasks, where $D$-Gating consistently delivers strong performance–sparsity tradeoffs and outperforms both direct optimization of structured penalties and conventional pruning baselines.

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UAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Hybrid Bernstein Normalizing Flows for Flexible Multivariate Density Regression with Interpretable Marginals

Marcel Arpogaus
Thomas Kneib
Thomas Nagler
David Rügamer

Density regression models allow a comprehensive understanding of data by modeling the complete conditional probability distribution. While flexible estimation approaches such as normalizing flows (NFs) work particularly well in multiple dimensions, interpreting the input-output relationship of such models is often difficult, due to the black-box character of deep learning models. In contrast, existing statistical methods for multivariate outcomes such as multivariate conditional transformation models (MCTMs) are restricted in flexibility and are often not expressive enough to represent complex multivariate probability distributions. In this paper, we combine MCTMs with state-of-the-art and autoregressive NFs to leverage the transparency of MCTMs for modeling interpretable feature effects on the marginal distributions in the first step and the flexibility of neural-network-based NFs techniques to account for complex and non-linear relationships in the joint data distribution. We demonstrate our method’s versatility in various numerical experiments and compare it with MCTMs and other NF models on both simulated and real-world data.

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ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Microcanonical Langevin Ensembles: Advancing the Sampling of Bayesian Neural Networks

Emanuel Sommer
Jakob Robnik
Giorgi Nozadze
Uros Seljak
David Rügamer

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption, current state-of-the-art samplers still struggle to navigate the complex and highly multimodal posteriors of BNNs. As a consequence, sampling still requires considerably longer inference times than non-Bayesian methods even for small neural networks, despite recent advances in making software implementations more efficient. Besides the difficulty of finding high-probability regions, the time until samplers provide sufficient exploration of these areas remains unpredictable. To tackle these challenges, we introduce an ensembling approach that leverages strategies from optimization and a recently proposed sampler called Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo (MCLMC) for efficient, robust and predictable sampling performance. Compared to approaches based on the state-of-the-art No-U-Turn Sampler, our approach delivers substantial speedups up to an order of magnitude, while maintaining or improving predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across diverse tasks and data modalities. The suggested Microcanonical Langevin Ensembles and modifications to MCLMC additionally enhance the method's predictability in resource requirements, facilitating easier parallelization. All in all, the proposed method offers a promising direction for practical, scalable inference for BNNs.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Revisiting Unbiased Implicit Variational Inference

Tobias Pielok
Bernd Bischl
David Rügamer

Recent years have witnessed growing interest in semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) methods due to their ability to rapidly generate samples from complex distributions. However, since the likelihood of these samples is non-trivial to estimate in high dimensions, current research focuses on finding effective SIVI training routines. Although unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI) has largely been dismissed as imprecise and computationally prohibitive because of its inner MCMC loop, we revisit this method and show that UIVI’s MCMC loop can be effectively replaced via importance sampling and the optimal proposal distribution can be learned stably by minimizing an expected forward Kullback–Leibler divergence without bias. Our refined approach demonstrates superior performance or parity with state-of-the-art methods on established SIVI benchmarks.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

A Functional Extension of Semi-Structured Networks

David Rügamer
Bernard X. Liew
Zainab Altai
Almond Stöcker

Semi-structured networks (SSNs) merge the structures familiar from additive models with deep neural networks, allowing the modeling of interpretable partial feature effects while capturing higher-order non-linearities at the same time. A significant challenge in this integration is maintaining the interpretability of the additive model component. Inspired by large-scale biomechanics datasets, this paper explores extending SSNs to functional data. Existing methods in functional data analysis are promising but often not expressive enough to account for all interactions and non-linearities and do not scale well to large datasets. Although the SSN approach presents a compelling potential solution, its adaptation to functional data remains complex. In this work, we propose a functional SSN method that retains the advantageous properties of classical functional regression approaches while also improving scalability. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that this approach accurately recovers underlying signals, enhances predictive performance, and performs favorably compared to competing methods.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Connecting the Dots: Is Mode-Connectedness the Key to Feasible Sample-Based Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks?

Emanuel Sommer
Lisa Wimmer
Theodore Papamarkou
Ludwig Bothmann
Bernd Bischl
David Rügamer

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks’ parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between weight and function space, uncovering a systematic link between overparameterization and the difficulty of the sampling problem. Through extensive experiments, we establish practical guidelines for sampling and convergence diagnosis. As a result, we present a deep ensemble initialized approach as an effective solution with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Generalizing Orthogonalization for Models with Non-Linearities

David Rügamer
Chris Kolb
Tobias Weber
Lucas Kook
Thomas Nagler

The complexity of black-box algorithms can lead to various challenges, including the introduction of biases. These biases present immediate risks in the algorithms’ application. It was, for instance, shown that neural networks can deduce racial information solely from a patient’s X-ray scan, a task beyond the capability of medical experts. If this fact is not known to the medical expert, automatic decision-making based on this algorithm could lead to prescribing a treatment (purely) based on racial information. While current methodologies allow for the "orthogonalization" or "normalization" of neural networks with respect to such information, existing approaches are grounded in linear models. Our paper advances the discourse by introducing corrections for non-linearities such as ReLU activations. Our approach also encompasses scalar and tensor-valued predictions, facilitating its integration into neural network architectures. Through extensive experiments, we validate our method’s effectiveness in safeguarding sensitive data in generalized linear models, normalizing convolutional neural networks for metadata, and rectifying pre-existing embeddings for undesired attributes.

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UAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

How Inverse Conditional Flows Can Serve as a Substitute for Distributional Regression

Lucas Kook
Chris Kolb
Philipp Schiele
Daniel Dold
Marcel Arpogaus
Cornelius Fritz
Philipp F. M. Baumann
Philipp Kopper

Neural network representations of simple models, such as linear regression, are being studied increasingly to better understand the underlying principles of deep learning algorithms. However, neural representations of distributional regression models, such as the Cox model, have received little attention so far. We close this gap by proposing a framework for distributional regression using inverse flow transformations (DRIFT), which includes neural representations of the aforementioned models. We empirically demonstrate that the neural representations of models in DRIFT can serve as a substitute for their classical statistical counterparts in several applications involving continuous, ordered, time-series, and survival outcomes. We confirm that models in DRIFT empirically match the performance of several statistical methods in terms of estimation of partial effects, prediction, and aleatoric uncertainty quantification. DRIFT covers both interpretable statistical models and flexible neural networks opening up new avenues in both statistical modeling and deep learning.

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TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

Interpretable Additive Tabular Transformer Networks

Anton Frederik Thielmann
Arik Reuter
Thomas Kneib
David Rügamer
Benjamin Säfken

Attention based Transformer networks have not only revolutionized Natural Language Processing but have also achieved state-of-the-art results for tabular data modeling. The attention mechanism, in particular, has proven to be highly effective in accurately modeling categorical variables. Although deep learning models recently outperform tree-based models, they often lack a complete comprehension of the individual impact of features because of their opaque nature. In contrast, additive neural network structures have proven to be both predictive and interpretable. Within the context of explainable deep learning, we propose Neural Additive Tabular Transformer Networks (NATT), a modeling framework that combines the intelligibility of additive neural networks with the predictive power of Transformer models. NATT offers inherent intelligibility while achieving similar performance to complex deep learning models. To validate its efficacy, we conduct experiments on multiple datasets and find that NATT performs on par with state-of-the-art methods on tabular data and surpasses other interpretable approaches.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Position: Bayesian Deep Learning is Needed in the Age of Large-Scale AI

Theodore Papamarkou
Maria Skoularidou
Konstantina Palla
Laurence Aitchison
Julyan Arbel
David B. Dunson
Maurizio Filippone
Vincent Fortuin

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Position: Why We Must Rethink Empirical Research in Machine Learning

Moritz Herrmann
F. Julian D. Lange
Katharina Eggensperger
Giuseppe Casalicchio
Marcel Wever
Matthias Feurer 0001
David Rügamer
Eyke Hüllermeier

We warn against a common but incomplete understanding of empirical research in machine learning that leads to non-replicable results, makes findings unreliable, and threatens to undermine progress in the field. To overcome this alarming situation, we call for more awareness of the plurality of ways of gaining knowledge experimentally but also of some epistemic limitations. In particular, we argue most current empirical machine learning research is fashioned as confirmatory research while it should rather be considered exploratory.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

A New PHO-rmula for Improved Performance of Semi-Structured Networks

David Rügamer

Recent advances to combine structured regression models and deep neural networks for better interpretability, more expressiveness, and statistically valid uncertainty quantification demonstrate the versatility of semi-structured neural networks (SSNs). We show that techniques to properly identify the contributions of the different model components in SSNs, however, lead to suboptimal network estimation, slower convergence, and degenerated or erroneous predictions. In order to solve these problems while preserving favorable model properties, we propose a non-invasive post-hoc orthogonalization (PHO) that guarantees identifiability of model components and provides better estimation and prediction quality. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical experiments, a benchmark comparison as well as a real-world application to COVID-19 infections.

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ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Approximate Bayesian Inference with Stein Functional Variational Gradient Descent

Tobias Pielok
Bernd Bischl
David Rügamer

We propose a general-purpose variational algorithm that forms a natural analogue of Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) in function space. While SVGD successively updates a set of particles to match a target density, the method introduced here of Stein functional variational gradient descent (SFVGD) updates a set of particle functions to match a target stochastic process (SP). The update step is found by minimizing the functional derivative of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between SPs. SFVGD can either be used to train Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) or for ensemble gradient boosting. We show the efficacy of training BNNs with SFVGD on various real-world datasets.

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