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David E. Carlson

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4 papers

1 author row

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Estimating Causal Effects using a Multi-task Deep Ensemble

Ziyang Jiang
Zhuoran Hou
Yiling Liu
Yiman Ren
Keyu Li
David E. Carlson

A number of methods have been proposed for causal effect estimation, yet few have demonstrated efficacy in handling data with complex structures, such as images. To fill this gap, we propose Causal Multi-task Deep Ensemble (CMDE), a novel framework that learns both shared and group-specific information from the study population. We provide proofs demonstrating equivalency of CDME to a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a coregionalization kernel a priori. Compared to multi-task GP, CMDE efficiently handles high-dimensional and multi-modal covariates and provides pointwise uncertainty estimates of causal effects. We evaluate our method across various types of datasets and tasks and find that CMDE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on a majority of these tasks.

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ICML Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Stochastic Bouncy Particle Sampler

Ari Pakman
Dar Gilboa
David E. Carlson
Liam Paninski

We introduce a stochastic version of the non-reversible, rejection-free Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS), a Markov process whose sample trajectories are piecewise linear, to efficiently sample Bayesian posteriors in big datasets. We prove that in the BPS no bias is introduced by noisy evaluations of the log-likelihood gradient. On the other hand, we argue that efficiency considerations favor a small, controllable bias, in exchange for faster mixing. We introduce a simple method that controls this trade-off. We illustrate these ideas in several examples which outperform previous approaches.

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ICML Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Partition Functions from Rao-Blackwellized Tempered Sampling

David E. Carlson
Patrick Stinson
Ari Pakman
Liam Paninski

Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliary inverse temperature variable. Our method exploits the multinomial probability law of the inverse temperatures, and provides estimates of the partition function in terms of a simple quotient of Rao-Blackwellized marginal inverse temperature probability estimates, which are updated while sampling. We show that the method has interesting connections with several alternative popular methods, and offers some significant advantages. In particular, we empirically find that the new method provides more accurate estimates than Annealed Importance Sampling when calculating partition functions of large Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM); moreover, the method is sufficiently accurate to track training and validation log-likelihoods during learning of RBMs, at minimal computational cost.

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ICML Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Scalable Deep Poisson Factor Analysis for Topic Modeling

Zhe Gan
Changyou Chen
Ricardo Henao
David E. Carlson
Lawrence Carin

A new framework for topic modeling is developed, based on deep graphical models, where interactions between topics are inferred through deep latent binary hierarchies. The proposed multi-layer model employs a deep sigmoid belief network or restricted Boltzmann machine, the bottom binary layer of which selects topics for use in a Poisson factor analysis model. Under this setting, topics live on the bottom layer of the model, while the deep specification serves as a flexible prior for revealing topic structure. Scalable inference algorithms are derived by applying Bayesian conditional density filtering algorithm, in addition to extending recently proposed work on stochastic gradient thermostats. Experimental results on several corpora show that the proposed approach readily handles very large collections of text documents, infers structured topic representations, and obtains superior test perplexities when compared with related models.

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