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David Duvenaud

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33 papers

2 author rows

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Experts Don't Cheat: Learning What You Don't Know By Predicting Pairs

Daniel D. Johnson 0001
Daniel Tarlow
David Duvenaud
Chris J. Maddison

Identifying how much a model $\hat{p}_{Y|X}^{\theta}$ knows about the stochastic real-world process $p_{Y|X}$ it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate $p_{Y|X}$ and also estimate the remaining gaps between $\hat{p}_{Y|X}^{\theta}$ and $p_{Y|X}$: train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i. e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for $p_{Y|X}$ and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don’t know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

LLM Processes: Numerical Predictive Distributions Conditioned on Natural Language

James Requeima
John Bronskill
Dami Choi
Richard E. Turner
David Duvenaud

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed to integrate this prior knowledge into probabilistic modeling typically limits the application of these models to specialists. Our goal is to build a regression model that can process numerical data and make probabilistic predictions at arbitrary locations, guided by natural language text which describes a user's prior knowledge. Large Language Models (LLMs) provide a useful starting point for designing such a tool since they 1) provide an interface where users can incorporate expert insights in natural language and 2) provide an opportunity for leveraging latent problem-relevant knowledge encoded in LLMs that users may not have themselves. We start by exploring strategies for eliciting explicit, coherent numerical predictive distributions from LLMs. We examine these joint predictive distributions, which we call LLM Processes, over arbitrarily-many quantities in settings such as forecasting, multi-dimensional regression, black-box optimization, and image modeling. We investigate the practical details of prompting to elicit coherent predictive distributions, and demonstrate their effectiveness at regression. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to usefully incorporate text into numerical predictions, improving predictive performance and giving quantitative structure that reflects qualitative descriptions. This lets us begin to explore the rich, grounded hypothesis space that LLMs implicitly encode.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Many-shot Jailbreaking

Cem Anil
Esin Durmus
Nina Panickssery
Mrinank Sharma
Joe Benton
Sandipan Kundu
Joshua Batson
Meg Tong

We investigate a family of simple long-context attacks on large language models: prompting with hundreds of demonstrations of undesirable behavior. This attack is newly feasible with the larger context windows recently deployed by language model providers like Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic. We find that in diverse, realistic circumstances, the effectiveness of this attack follows a power law, up to hundreds of shots. We demonstrate the success of this attack on the most widely used state-of-the-art closed-weight models, and across various tasks. Our results suggest very long contexts present a rich new attack surface for LLMs.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models

Mrinank Sharma
Meg Tong
Tomasz Korbak
David Duvenaud
Amanda Askell
Samuel R. Bowman
Esin Durmus
Zac Hatfield-Dodds

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a popular technique for training high-quality AI assistants. However, RLHF may also encourage model responses that match user beliefs over truthful responses, a behavior known as sycophancy. We investigate the prevalence of sycophancy in RLHF-trained models and whether human preference judgments are responsible. We first demonstrate that five state-of-the-art AI assistants consistently exhibit sycophancy behavior across four varied free-form text-generation tasks. To understand if human preferences drive this broadly observed behavior of RLHF models, we analyze existing human preference data. We find that when a response matches a user's views, it is more likely to be preferred. Moreover, both humans and preference models (PMs) prefer convincingly-written sycophantic responses over correct ones a non-negligible fraction of the time. Optimizing model outputs against PMs also sometimes sacrifices truthfulness in favor of sycophancy. Overall, our results indicate that sycophancy is a general behavior of RLHF models, likely driven in part by human preference judgments favoring sycophantic responses.

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

On Implicit Bias in Overparameterized Bilevel Optimization

Paul Vicol
Jonathan P. Lorraine
Fabian Pedregosa
David Duvenaud
Roger B. Grosse

Many problems in machine learning involve bilevel optimization (BLO), including hyperparameter optimization, meta-learning, and dataset distillation. Bilevel problems involve inner and outer parameters, each optimized for its own objective. Often, at least one of the two levels is underspecified and there are multiple ways to choose among equivalent optima. Inspired by recent studies of the implicit bias induced by optimization algorithms in single-level optimization, we investigate the implicit bias of different gradient-based algorithms for jointly optimizing the inner and outer parameters. We delineate two standard BLO methods—cold-start and warm-start BLO—and show that the converged solution or long-run behavior depends to a large degree on these and other algorithmic choices, such as the hypergradient approximation. We also show that the solutions from warm-start BLO can encode a surprising amount of information about the outer objective, even when the outer optimization variables are low-dimensional. We believe that implicit bias deserves as central a role in the study of bilevel optimization as it has attained in the study of single-level neural net optimization.

ICLR Conference 2021 Conference Paper

No MCMC for me: Amortized sampling for fast and stable training of energy-based models

Will Grathwohl
Jacob Jin Kelly
Milad Hashemi
Mohammad Norouzi 0002
Kevin Swersky
David Duvenaud

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) present a flexible and appealing way to represent uncertainty. Despite recent advances, training EBMs on high-dimensional data remains a challenging problem as the state-of-the-art approaches are costly, unstable, and require considerable tuning and domain expertise to apply successfully. In this work, we present a simple method for training EBMs at scale which uses an entropy-regularized generator to amortize the MCMC sampling typically used in EBM training. We improve upon prior MCMC-based entropy regularization methods with a fast variational approximation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by using it to train tractable likelihood models. Next, we apply our estimator to the recently proposed Joint Energy Model (JEM), where we match the original performance with faster and stable training. This allows us to extend JEM models to semi-supervised classification on tabular data from a variety of continuous domains.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Oops I Took A Gradient: Scalable Sampling for Discrete Distributions

Will Grathwohl
Kevin Swersky
Milad Hashemi
David Duvenaud
Chris J. Maddison

We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We show empirically that this approach outperforms generic samplers in a number of difficult settings including Ising models, Potts models, restricted Boltzmann machines, and factorial hidden Markov models. We also demonstrate our improved sampler for training deep energy-based models on high dimensional discrete image data. This approach outperforms variational auto-encoders and existing energy-based models. Finally, we give bounds showing that our approach is near-optimal in the class of samplers which propose local updates.

ICLR Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Teaching with Commentaries

Aniruddh Raghu
Maithra Raghu
Simon Kornblith
David Duvenaud
Geoffrey E. Hinton

Effective training of deep neural networks can be challenging, and there remain many open questions on how to best learn these models. Recently developed methods to improve neural network training examine teaching: providing learned information during the training process to improve downstream model performance. In this paper, we take steps towards extending the scope of teaching. We propose a flexible teaching framework using commentaries, learned meta-information helpful for training on a particular task. We present gradient-based methods to learn commentaries, leveraging recent work on implicit differentiation for scalability. We explore diverse applications of commentaries, from weighting training examples, to parameterising label-dependent data augmentation policies, to representing attention masks that highlight salient image regions. We find that commentaries can improve training speed and/or performance, and provide insights about the dataset and training process. We also observe that commentaries generalise: they can be reused when training new models to obtain performance benefits, suggesting a use-case where commentaries are stored with a dataset and leveraged in future for improved model training.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Learning the Stein Discrepancy for Training and Evaluating Energy-Based Models without Sampling

Will Grathwohl
Kuan-Chieh Wang
Jörn-Henrik Jacobsen
David Duvenaud
Richard S. Zemel

We present a new method for evaluating and training unnormalized density models. Our approach only requires access to the gradient of the unnormalized model’s log-density. We estimate the Stein discrepancy between the data density p(x) and the model density q(x) based on a vector function of the data. We parameterize this function with a neural network and fit its parameters to maximize this discrepancy. This yields a novel goodness-of-fit test which outperforms existing methods on high dimensional data. Furthermore, optimizing q(x) to minimize this discrepancy produces a novel method for training unnormalized models. This training method can fit large unnormalized models faster than existing approaches. The ability to both learn and compare models is a unique feature of the proposed method.

ICLR Conference 2020 Conference Paper

SUMO: Unbiased Estimation of Log Marginal Probability for Latent Variable Models

Yucen Luo
Alex Beatson
Mohammad Norouzi 0002
Jun Zhu 0001
David Duvenaud
Ryan P. Adams
Ricky T. Q. Chen

Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models based on randomized truncation of infinite series. If parameterized by an encoder-decoder architecture, the parameters of the encoder can be optimized to minimize its variance of this estimator. We show that models trained using our estimator give better test-set likelihoods than a standard importance-sampling based approach for the same average computational cost. This estimator also allows use of latent variable models for tasks where unbiased estimators, rather than marginal likelihood lower bounds, are preferred, such as minimizing reverse KL divergences and estimating score functions.

ICLR Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Your classifier is secretly an energy based model and you should treat it like one

Will Grathwohl
Kuan-Chieh Wang
Jörn-Henrik Jacobsen
David Duvenaud
Mohammad Norouzi 0002
Kevin Swersky

We propose to reinterpret a standard discriminative classifier of p(y|x) as an energy based model for the joint distribution p(x, y). In this setting, the standard class probabilities can be easily computed as well as unnormalized values of p(x) and p(x|y). Within this framework, standard discriminative architectures may be used and the model can also be trained on unlabeled data. We demonstrate that energy based training of the joint distribution improves calibration, robustness, and out-of-distribution detection while also enabling our models to generate samples rivaling the quality of recent GAN approaches. We improve upon recently proposed techniques for scaling up the training of energy based models and present an approach which adds little overhead compared to standard classification training. Our approach is the first to achieve performance rivaling the state-of-the-art in both generative and discriminative learning within one hybrid model.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Efficient Graph Generation with Graph Recurrent Attention Networks

Renjie Liao
Yujia Li
Yang Song
Shenlong Wang
Will Hamilton
David Duvenaud
Raquel Urtasun
Richard Zemel

We propose a new family of efficient and expressive deep generative models of graphs, called Graph Recurrent Attention Networks (GRANs). Our model generates graphs one block of nodes and associated edges at a time. The block size and sampling stride allow us to trade off sample quality for efficiency. Compared to previous RNN-based graph generative models, our framework better captures the auto-regressive conditioning between the already-generated and to-be-generated parts of the graph using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with attention. This not only reduces the dependency on node ordering but also bypasses the long-term bottleneck caused by the sequential nature of RNNs. Moreover, we parameterize the output distribution per block using a mixture of Bernoulli, which captures the correlations among generated edges within the block. Finally, we propose to handle node orderings in generation by marginalizing over a family of canonical orderings. On standard benchmarks, we achieve state-of-the-art time efficiency and sample quality compared to previous models. Additionally, we show our model is capable of generating large graphs of up to 5K nodes with good quality. Our code is released at: \url{https: //github. com/lrjconan/GRAN}.

ICLR Conference 2019 Conference Paper

FFJORD: Free-Form Continuous Dynamics for Scalable Reversible Generative Models

Will Grathwohl
Ricky T. Q. Chen
Jesse Bettencourt
Ilya Sutskever
David Duvenaud

A promising class of generative models maps points from a simple distribution to a complex distribution through an invertible neural network. Likelihood-based training of these models requires restricting their architectures to allow cheap computation of Jacobian determinants. Alternatively, the Jacobian trace can be used if the transformation is specified by an ordinary differential equation. In this paper, we use Hutchinson’s trace estimator to give a scalable unbiased estimate of the log-density. The result is a continuous-time invertible generative model with unbiased density estimation and one-pass sampling, while allowing unrestricted neural network architectures. We demonstrate our approach on high-dimensional density estimation, image generation, and variational inference, achieving the state-of-the-art among exact likelihood methods with efficient sampling.

ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Invertible Residual Networks

Jens Behrmann
Will Grathwohl
Ricky T. Q. Chen
David Duvenaud
Jörn-Henrik Jacobsen

We show that standard ResNet architectures can be made invertible, allowing the same model to be used for classification, density estimation, and generation. Typically, enforcing invertibility requires partitioning dimensions or restricting network architectures. In contrast, our approach only requires adding a simple normalization step during training, already available in standard frameworks. Invertible ResNets define a generative model which can be trained by maximum likelihood on unlabeled data. To compute likelihoods, we introduce a tractable approximation to the Jacobian log-determinant of a residual block. Our empirical evaluation shows that invertible ResNets perform competitively with both state-of-the-art image classifiers and flow-based generative models, something that has not been previously achieved with a single architecture.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Latent Ordinary Differential Equations for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series

Yulia Rubanova
Ricky T. Q. Chen
David Duvenaud

Time series with non-uniform intervals occur in many applications, and are difficult to model using standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We generalize RNNs to have continuous-time hidden dynamics defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), a model we call ODE-RNNs. Furthermore, we use ODE-RNNs to replace the recognition network of the recently-proposed Latent ODE model. Both ODE-RNNs and Latent ODEs can naturally handle arbitrary time gaps between observations, and can explicitly model the probability of observation times using Poisson processes. We show experimentally that these ODE-based models outperform their RNN-based counterparts on irregularly-sampled data.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Neural Networks with Cheap Differential Operators

Ricky T. Q. Chen
David Duvenaud

Gradients of neural networks can be computed efficiently for any architecture, but some applications require computing differential operators with higher time complexity. We describe a family of neural network architectures that allow easy access to a family of differential operators involving \emph{dimension-wise derivatives}, and we show how to modify the backward computation graph to compute them efficiently. We demonstrate the use of these operators for solving root-finding subproblems in implicit ODE solvers, exact density evaluation for continuous normalizing flows, and evaluating the Fokker-Planck equation for training stochastic differential equation models.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Residual Flows for Invertible Generative Modeling

Ricky T. Q. Chen
Jens Behrmann
David Duvenaud
Joern-Henrik Jacobsen

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforcing invertibility. However, prior work trained invertible residual networks for density estimation by relying on biased log-density estimates whose bias increased with the network's expressiveness. We give a tractable unbiased estimate of the log density, and reduce the memory required during training by a factor of ten. Furthermore, we improve invertible residual blocks by proposing the use of activation functions that avoid gradient saturation and generalizing the Lipschitz condition to induced mixed norms. The resulting approach, called Residual Flows, achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation amongst flow-based models, and outperforms networks that use coupling blocks at joint generative and discriminative modeling.

ICML Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Inference Suboptimality in Variational Autoencoders

Chris Cremer
Xuechen Li 0005
David Duvenaud

Amortized inference allows latent-variable models trained via variational learning to scale to large datasets. The quality of approximate inference is determined by two factors: a) the capacity of the variational distribution to match the true posterior and b) the ability of the recognition network to produce good variational parameters for each datapoint. We examine approximate inference in variational autoencoders in terms of these factors. We find that divergence from the true posterior is often due to imperfect recognition networks, rather than the limited complexity of the approximating distribution. We show that this is due partly to the generator learning to accommodate the choice of approximation. Furthermore, we show that the parameters used to increase the expressiveness of the approximation play a role in generalizing inference rather than simply improving the complexity of the approximation.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Isolating Sources of Disentanglement in Variational Autoencoders

Ricky T. Q. Chen
Xuechen Li
Roger Grosse
David Duvenaud

We decompose the evidence lower bound to show the existence of a term measuring the total correlation between latent variables. We use this to motivate the beta-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder) algorithm, a refinement and plug-in replacement of the beta-VAE for learning disentangled representations, requiring no additional hyperparameters during training. We further propose a principled classifier-free measure of disentanglement called the mutual information gap (MIG). We perform extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, in both restricted and non-restricted settings, and show a strong relation between total correlation and disentanglement, when the model is trained using our framework.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Ricky T. Q. Chen
Yulia Rubanova
Jesse Bettencourt
David Duvenaud

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a blackbox differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

ICML Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Noisy Natural Gradient as Variational Inference

Guodong Zhang 0006
Shengyang Sun
David Duvenaud
Roger B. Grosse

Variational Bayesian neural nets combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. Unfortunately, there is a tradeoff between cheap but simple variational families (e. g. fully factorized) or expensive and complicated inference procedures. We show that natural gradient ascent with adaptive weight noise implicitly fits a variational posterior to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO). This insight allows us to train full-covariance, fully factorized, or matrix-variate Gaussian variational posteriors using noisy versions of natural gradient, Adam, and K-FAC, respectively, making it possible to scale up to modern-size ConvNets. On standard regression benchmarks, our noisy K-FAC algorithm makes better predictions and matches Hamiltonian Monte Carlo’s predictive variances better than existing methods. Its improved uncertainty estimates lead to more efficient exploration in active learning, and intrinsic motivation for reinforcement learning.

NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Sticking the Landing: Simple, Lower-Variance Gradient Estimators for Variational Inference

Geoffrey Roeder
Yuhuai Wu
David Duvenaud

We propose a simple and general variant of the standard reparameterized gradient estimator for the variational evidence lower bound. Specifically, we remove a part of the total derivative with respect to the variational parameters that corresponds to the score function. Removing this term produces an unbiased gradient estimator whose variance approaches zero as the approximate posterior approaches the exact posterior. We analyze the behavior of this gradient estimator theoretically and empirically, and generalize it to more complex variational distributions such as mixtures and importance-weighted posteriors.

NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Composing graphical models with neural networks for structured representations and fast inference

Matthew Johnson
David Duvenaud
Alex Wiltschko
Ryan Adams
Sandeep Datta

We propose a general modeling and inference framework that combines the complementary strengths of probabilistic graphical models and deep learning methods. Our model family composes latent graphical models with neural network observation likelihoods. For inference, we use recognition networks to produce local evidence potentials, then combine them with the model distribution using efficient message-passing algorithms. All components are trained simultaneously with a single stochastic variational inference objective. We illustrate this framework by automatically segmenting and categorizing mouse behavior from raw depth video, and demonstrate several other example models.

NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Probing the Compositionality of Intuitive Functions

Eric Schulz
Josh Tenenbaum
David Duvenaud
Maarten Speekenbrink
Samuel Gershman

How do people learn about complex functional structure? Taking inspiration from other areas of cognitive science, we propose that this is accomplished by harnessing compositionality: complex structure is decomposed into simpler building blocks. We formalize this idea within the framework of Bayesian regression using a grammar over Gaussian process kernels. We show that participants prefer compositional over non-compositional function extrapolations, that samples from the human prior over functions are best described by a compositional model, and that people perceive compositional functions as more predictable than their non-compositional but otherwise similar counterparts. We argue that the compositional nature of intuitive functions is consistent with broad principles of human cognition.

NeurIPS Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Convolutional Networks on Graphs for Learning Molecular Fingerprints

David Duvenaud
Dougal Maclaurin
Jorge Iparraguirre
Rafael Bombarell
Timothy Hirzel
Alan Aspuru-Guzik
Ryan Adams

We introduce a convolutional neural network that operates directly on graphs. These networks allow end-to-end learning of prediction pipelines whose inputs are graphs of arbitrary size and shape. The architecture we present generalizes standard molecular feature extraction methods based on circular fingerprints. We show that these data-driven features are more interpretable, and have better predictive performance on a variety of tasks.

ICML Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Gradient-based Hyperparameter Optimization through Reversible Learning

Dougal Maclaurin
David Duvenaud
Ryan P. Adams

Tuning hyperparameters of learning algorithms is hard because gradients are usually unavailable. We compute exact gradients of cross-validation performance with respect to all hyperparameters by chaining derivatives backwards through the entire training procedure. These gradients allow us to optimize thousands of hyperparameters, including step-size and momentum schedules, weight initialization distributions, richly parameterized regularization schemes, and neural network architectures. We compute hyperparameter gradients by exactly reversing the dynamics of stochastic gradient descent with momentum.

AAAI Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Automatic Construction and Natural-Language Description of Nonparametric Regression Models

James Lloyd
David Duvenaud
Roger Grosse
Joshua Tenenbaum
Zoubin Ghahramani

This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and naturallanguage text. Our approach treats unknown regression functions nonparametrically using Gaussian processes, which has two important consequences. First, Gaussian processes can model functions in terms of high-level properties (e. g. smoothness, trends, periodicity, changepoints). Taken together with the compositional structure of our language of models this allows us to automatically describe functions in simple terms. Second, the use of flexible nonparametric models and a rich language for composing them in an open-ended manner also results in stateof-the-art extrapolation performance evaluated over 13 real time series data sets from various domains.

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Probabilistic ODE Solvers with Runge-Kutta Means

Michael Schober
David Duvenaud
Philipp Hennig

Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions.

ICML Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Structure Discovery in Nonparametric Regression through Compositional Kernel Search

David Duvenaud
James Robert Lloyd
Roger B. Grosse
Joshua B. Tenenbaum
Zoubin Ghahramani

Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base kernels. We present a method for searching over this space of structures which mirrors the scientific discovery process. The learned structures can often decompose functions into interpretable components and enable long-range extrapolation on time-series datasets. Our structure search method outperforms many widely used kernels and kernel combination methods on a variety of prediction tasks.

UAI Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Warped Mixtures for Nonparametric Cluster Shapes

Tomoharu Iwata
David Duvenaud
Zoubin Ghahramani

A mixture of Gaussians fit to a single curved or heavy-tailed cluster will report that the data contains many clusters. To produce more appropriate clusterings, we introduce a model which warps a latent mixture of Gaussians to produce nonparametric cluster shapes. The possibly low-dimensional latent mixture model allows us to summarize the properties of the high-dimensional clusters (or density manifolds) describing the data. The number of manifolds, as well as the shape and dimension of each manifold is automatically inferred. We derive a simple inference scheme for this model which analytically integrates out both the mixture parameters and the warping function. We show that our model is effective for density estimation, performs better than infinite Gaussian mixture models at recovering the true number of clusters, and produces interpretable summaries of high-dimensional datasets.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Active Learning of Model Evidence Using Bayesian Quadrature

Michael Osborne
Roman Garnett
Zoubin Ghahramani
David Duvenaud
Stephen Roberts
Carl Rasmussen

Numerical integration is an key component of many problems in scientific computing, statistical modelling, and machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature is a model-based method for numerical integration which, relative to standard Monte Carlo methods, offers increased sample efficiency and a more robust estimate of the uncertainty in the estimated integral. We propose a novel Bayesian Quadrature approach for numerical integration when the integrand is non-negative, such as the case of computing the marginal likelihood, predictive distribution, or normalising constant of a probabilistic model. Our approach approximately marginalises the quadrature model's hyperparameters in closed form, and introduces an active learning scheme to optimally select function evaluations, as opposed to using Monte Carlo samples. We demonstrate our method on both a number of synthetic benchmarks and a real scientific problem from astronomy.

UAI Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Optimally-Weighted Herding is Bayesian Quadrature

Ferenc Huszar
David Duvenaud

Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior variance in Bayesian quadrature. We then show that sequential Bayesian quadrature can be viewed as a weighted version of kernel herding which achieves performance superior to any other weighted herding method. We demonstrate empirically a rate of convergence faster than O(1/N). Our results also imply an upper bound on the empirical error of the Bayesian quadrature estimate.

NeurIPS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Additive Gaussian Processes

David Duvenaud
Hannes Nickisch
Carl Rasmussen

We introduce a Gaussian process model of functions which are additive. An additive function is one which decomposes into a sum of low-dimensional functions, each depending on only a subset of the input variables. Additive GPs generalize both Generalized Additive Models, and the standard GP models which use squared-exponential kernels. Hyperparameter learning in this model can be seen as Bayesian Hierarchical Kernel Learning (HKL). We introduce an expressive but tractable parameterization of the kernel function, which allows efficient evaluation of all input interaction terms, whose number is exponential in the input dimension. The additional structure discoverable by this model results in increased interpretability, as well as state-of-the-art predictive power in regression tasks.