Author name cluster

David B. Lobell

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5 papers

2 author rows

AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Scalable Vision-Guided Crop Yield Estimation

Harrison H Li
Medhanie Irgau
Nabil Janmohamed
Karen Solveig Rieckmann
David B. Lobell

Precise estimation and uncertainty quantification for average crop yields are critical for agricultural monitoring and decision making. Existing data collection methods, such as crop cuts in randomly sampled fields at harvest time, are relatively time-consuming. Thus, we propose an approach based on prediction-powered inference (PPI) to supplement these crop cuts with less time-consuming field photos. After training a computer vision model to predict the ground truth crop cut yields from the photos, we learn a "control function" that recalibrates these predictions with the spatial coordinates of each field. This enables fields with photos but not crop cuts to be leveraged to improve the precision of zone-wide average yield estimates. Our control function is learned by training on a dataset of nearly 20,000 real crop cuts and photos of rice and maize fields in sub-Saharan Africa. To improve precision, we pool training observations across different zones within the same first-level subdivision of each country. Our final PPI-based point estimates of the average yield are provably asymptotically unbiased and cannot increase the asymptotic variance beyond that of the natural baseline estimator --- the sample average of the crop cuts --- as the number of fields grows. We also propose a novel bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap to construct accompanying confidence intervals. Even in zones with as few as 20 fields, the point estimates show significant empirical improvement over the baseline, increasing the effective sample size by as much as 73% for rice and by 12-23% for maize. The confidence intervals are accordingly shorter at minimal cost to empirical finite-sample coverage. This demonstrates the potential for relatively low-cost images to make area-based crop insurance more affordable and thus spur investment into sustainable agricultural practices.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

ExPLoRA: Parameter-Efficient Extended Pre-Training to Adapt Vision Transformers under Domain Shifts

Samar Khanna
Medhanie Irgau
David B. Lobell
Stefano Ermon

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques such as low-rank adaptation (LoRA) can effectively adapt large pre-trained foundation models to downstream tasks using only a small fraction (0. 1%-10%) of the original trainable weights. An under-explored question of PEFT is in extending the pre-training phase without supervised labels; that is, can we adapt a pre-trained foundation model to a new domain via efficient self-supervised pre-training on this domain? In this work, we introduce ExPLoRA, a highly effective technique to improve transfer learning of pre-trained vision transformers (ViTs) under domain shifts. Initializing a ViT with pre-trained weights on large, natural-image datasets such as from DinoV2 or MAE, ExPLoRA continues the unsupervised pre-training objective on a new domain, unfreezing 1-2 pre-trained ViT blocks and tuning all other layers with LoRA. We then fine-tune the resulting model only with LoRA on this new domain for supervised learning. Our experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art results on satellite imagery, even outperforming fully pre-training and fine-tuning ViTs. Using the DinoV2 training objective, we demonstrate up to 8% improvement in linear probing top-1 accuracy on downstream tasks while using $<$10% of the number of parameters that are used in prior fully-tuned state-of-the art approaches. Our ablation studies confirm the efficacy of our approach over other baselines such as PEFT. Code is available at: https: //samar-khanna. github. io/ExPLoRA/

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

DiffusionSat: A Generative Foundation Model for Satellite Imagery

Samar Khanna
Patrick Liu
Linqi Zhou
Chenlin Meng
Robin Rombach
Marshall Burke
David B. Lobell
Stefano Ermon

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art results on many modalities including images, speech, and video. However, existing models are not tailored to support remote sensing data, which is widely used in important applications including environmental monitoring and crop-yield prediction. Satellite images are significantly different from natural images -- they can be multi-spectral, irregularly sampled across time -- and existing diffusion models trained on images from the Web do not support them. Furthermore, remote sensing data is inherently spatio-temporal, requiring conditional generation tasks not supported by traditional methods based on captions or images. In this paper, we present DiffusionSat, to date the largest generative foundation model trained on a collection of publicly available large, high-resolution remote sensing datasets . As text-based captions are sparsely available for satellite images, we incorporate the associated metadata such as geolocation as conditioning information. Our method produces realistic samples and can be used to solve multiple generative tasks including temporal generation, multi-spectral superrresolution and in-painting. Our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods for satellite image generation and is the first large-scale _generative_ foundation model for satellite imagery. The project website can be found here: https://samar-khanna.github.io/DiffusionSat/

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

GeoLLM: Extracting Geospatial Knowledge from Large Language Models

Rohin Manvi
Samar Khanna
Gengchen Mai
Marshall Burke
David B. Lobell
Stefano Ermon

The application of machine learning (ML) in a range of geospatial tasks is increasingly common but often relies on globally available covariates such as satellite imagery that can either be expensive or lack predictive power. Here we explore the question of whether the vast amounts of knowledge found in Internet language corpora, now compressed within large language models (LLMs), can be leveraged for geospatial prediction tasks. We first demonstrate that LLMs embed remarkable spatial information about locations, but naively querying LLMs using geographic coordinates alone is ineffective in predicting key indicators like population density. We then present GeoLLM, a novel method that can effectively extract geospatial knowledge from LLMs with auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap. We demonstrate the utility of our approach across multiple tasks of central interest to the international community, including the measurement of population density and economic livelihoods. Across these tasks, our method demonstrates a 70\% improvement in performance (measured using Pearson's $r^2$) relative to baselines that use nearest neighbors or use information directly from the prompt, and performance equal to or exceeding satellite-based benchmarks in the literature. With GeoLLM, we observe that GPT-3.5 outperforms Llama 2 and RoBERTa by 19\% and 51\% respectively, suggesting that the performance of our method scales well with the size of the model and its pretraining dataset. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are remarkably sample-efficient, rich in geospatial information, and robust across the globe. Crucially, GeoLLM shows promise in mitigating the limitations of existing geospatial covariates and complementing them well. Code is available on the project website: https://rohinmanvi.github.io/GeoLLM

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Large Language Models are Geographically Biased

Rohin Manvi
Samar Khanna
Marshall Burke
David B. Lobell
Stefano Ermon

Large Language Models (LLMs) inherently carry the biases contained in their training corpora, which can lead to the perpetuation of societal harm. As the impact of these foundation models grows, understanding and evaluating their biases becomes crucial to achieving fairness and accuracy. We propose to study what LLMs know about the world we live in through the lens of geography. This approach is particularly powerful as there is ground truth for the numerous aspects of human life that are meaningfully projected onto geographic space such as culture, race, language, politics, and religion. We show various problematic geographic biases, which we define as systemic errors in geospatial predictions. Initially, we demonstrate that LLMs are capable of making accurate zero-shot geospatial predictions in the form of ratings that show strong monotonic correlation with ground truth (Spearman’s $\rho$ of up to 0. 89). We then show that LLMs exhibit common biases across a range of objective and subjective topics. In particular, LLMs are clearly biased against locations with lower socioeconomic conditions (e. g. most of Africa) on a variety of sensitive subjective topics such as attractiveness, morality, and intelligence (Spearman’s $\rho$ of up to 0. 70). Finally, we introduce a bias score to quantify this and find that there is significant variation in the magnitude of bias across existing LLMs. Code is available on the project website: https: //rohinmanvi. github. io/GeoLLM.

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