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Daniel Malinsky

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7 papers

2 author rows

TMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

Explaining the Behavior of Black-Box Prediction Algorithms with Causal Learning

Numair Sani
Daniel Malinsky
Ilya Shpitser

Causal approaches to post-hoc explainability for black-box prediction models (e.g., deep neural networks trained on image pixel data) have become increasingly popular. However, existing approaches have two important shortcomings: (i) the “explanatory units” are micro-level inputs into the relevant prediction model, e.g., image pixels, rather than interpretable macro-level features that are more useful for understanding how to possibly change the algorithm’s behavior, and (ii) existing approaches assume there exists no unmeasured confounding between features and target model predictions, which fails to hold when the explanatory units are macro-level variables. Our focus is on the important setting where the analyst has no access to the inner workings of the target prediction algorithm, rather only the ability to query the output of the model in response to a particular input. To provide causal explanations in such a setting, we propose to learn causal graphical representations that allow for arbitrary unmeasured confounding among features. We demonstrate the resulting graph can differentiate between interpretable features that causally influence model predictions versus those that are merely associated with model predictions due to confounding. Our approach is motivated by a counterfactual theory of causal explanation wherein good explanations point to factors that are “difference-makers” in an interventionist sense.

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UAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Causal inference with outcome-dependent missingness and self-censoring

Jacob M. Chen
Daniel Malinsky
Rohit Bhattacharya

We consider missingness in the context of causal inference when the outcome of interest may be missing. If the outcome directly affects its own missingness status, i. e. , it is “self-censoring”, this may lead to severely biased causal effect estimates. Miao et al. (2015) proposed the shadow variable method to correct for bias due to self-censoring; however, verifying the required model assumptions can be difficult. Here, we propose a test based on a randomized incentive variable offered to encourage reporting of the outcome that can be used to verify identification assumptions that are sufficient to correct for both self-censoring and confounding bias. Concretely, the test confirms whether a given set of pre-treatment covariates is sufficient to block all backdoor paths between the treatment and outcome as well as all paths between the treatment and missingness indicator after conditioning on the outcome. We show that under these conditions, the causal effect is identified by using the treatment as a shadow variable, and it leads to an intuitive inverse probability weighting estimator that uses a product of the treatment and response weights. We evaluate the efficacy of our test and downstream estimator via simulations.

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CLeaR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Optimal Training of Fair Predictive Models

Razieh Nabi
Daniel Malinsky
Ilya Shpitser

Recently there has been sustained interest in modifying prediction algorithms to satisfy fairness constraints. These constraints are typically complex nonlinear functionals of the observed data distribution. Focusing on the path-specific causal constraints, we introduce new theoretical results and optimization techniques to make model training easier and more accurate. Specifically, we show how to reparameterize the observed data likelihood such that fairness constraints correspond directly to parameters that appear in the likelihood, transforming a complex constrained optimization objective into a simple optimization problem with box constraints. We also exploit methods from empirical likelihood theory in statistics to improve predictive performance by constraining baseline covariates, without requiring parametric models. We combine the merits of both proposals to optimize a hybrid reparameterized likelihood. The techniques presented here should be applicable more broadly to fair prediction proposals that impose constraints on predictive models.

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JMLR Journal 2020 Journal Article

algcomparison: Comparing the Performance of Graphical Structure Learning Algorithms with TETRAD

Joseph D. Ramsey
Daniel Malinsky
Kevin V. Bui

In this report we describe a tool for comparing the performance of graphical causal structure learning algorithms implemented in the TETRAD freeware suite of causal analysis methods. Currently the tool is available as package in the TETRAD source code (written in Java). Simulations can be done varying the number of runs, sample sizes, and data modalities. Performance on this simulated data can then be compared for a number of algorithms, with parameters varied and with performance statistics as selected, producing a publishable report. The package presented here may also be used to compare structure learning methods across platforms and programming languages, i.e., to compare algorithms implemented in TETRAD with those implemented in MATLAB, Python, or R. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2020. ( edit, beta )

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UAI Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Causal Inference Under Interference And Network Uncertainty

Rohit Bhattacharya
Daniel Malinsky
Ilya Shpitser

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the data. Methods for estimating causal effects have been developed in the setting where the structure of dependence between units is known exactly, but in practice there is often substantial uncertainty about the precise network structure. This is true, for example, in trial data drawn from vulnerable communities where social ties are difficult to query directly. In this paper we combine techniques from the structure learning and interference literatures in causal inference, proposing a general method for estimating causal effects under data dependence when the structure of this dependence is not known a priori. We demonstrate the utility of our method on synthetic datasets which exhibit network dependence.

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ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Learning Optimal Fair Policies

Razieh Nabi
Daniel Malinsky
Ilya Shpitser

Systematic discriminatory biases present in our society influence the way data is collected and stored, the way variables are defined, and the way scientific findings are put into practice as policy. Automated decision procedures and learning algorithms applied to such data may serve to perpetuate existing injustice or unfairness in our society. In this paper, we consider how to make optimal but fair decisions, which “break the cycle of injustice” by correcting for the unfair dependence of both decisions and outcomes on sensitive features (e. g. , variables that correspond to gender, race, disability, or other protected attributes). We use methods from causal inference and constrained optimization to learn optimal policies in a way that addresses multiple potential biases which afflict data analysis in sensitive contexts, extending the approach of Nabi & Shpitser (2018). Our proposal comes equipped with the theoretical guarantee that the chosen fair policy will induce a joint distribution for new instances that satisfies given fairness constraints. We illustrate our approach with both synthetic data and real criminal justice data.

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UAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Causal Learning for Partially Observed Stochastic Dynamical Systems

Søren Wengel Mogensen
Daniel Malinsky
Niels Richard Hansen

Many models of dynamical systems have causal interpretations that support reasoning about the consequences of interventions, suitably defined. Furthermore, local independence has been suggested as a useful independence concept for stochastic dynamical systems. There is, however, no well-developed theoretical framework for causal learning based on this notion of independence. We study independence models induced by directed graphs (DGs) and provide abstract graphoid properties that guarantee that an independence model has the global Markov property w. r. t. a DG. We apply these results to Itô diffusions and event processes. For a partially observed system, directed mixed graphs (DMGs) represent the marginalized local independence model, and we develop, under a faithfulness assumption, a sound and complete learning algorithm of the directed mixed equivalence graph (DMEG) as a summary of all Markov equivalent DMGs.

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