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Cody Fleming

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TMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

HopCast: Calibration of Autoregressive Dynamics Models

Muhammad Bilal Shahid
Cody Fleming

Deep learning models are often trained to approximate dynamical systems that can be modeled using differential equations. Many of these models are optimized to predict one step ahead; such approaches produce calibrated one-step predictions if the predictive model can quantify uncertainty, such as Deep Ensembles. At inference time, multi-step predictions are generated via autoregression, which needs a sound uncertainty propagation method to produce calibrated multi-step predictions. This work introduces an alternative Predictor-Corrector approach named HopCast that uses Modern Hopfield Networks (MHN) to learn the errors of a deterministic Predictor that approximates the dynamical system. The Corrector predicts a set of errors for the Predictor's output based on a context state at any timestep during autoregression. The set of errors creates sharper and well-calibrated prediction intervals with higher predictive accuracy compared to baselines without uncertainty propagation. The calibration and prediction performances are evaluated across a set of dynamical systems. This work is also the first to benchmark existing uncertainty propagation methods based on calibration errors.

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AAAI Conference 2021 Conference Paper

SCAN: A Spatial Context Attentive Network for Joint Multi-Agent Intent Prediction

Jasmine Sekhon
Cody Fleming

Safe navigation of autonomous agents in human centric environments requires the ability to understand and predict motion of neighboring pedestrians. However, predicting pedestrian intent is a complex problem. Pedestrian motion is governed by complex social navigation norms, is dependent on neighbors’ trajectories, and is multimodal in nature. In this work, we propose SCAN, a Spatial Context Attentive Network that can jointly predict socially-acceptable multiple future trajectories for all pedestrians in a scene. SCAN encodes the influence of spatially close neighbors using a novel spatial attention mechanism in a manner that relies on fewer assumptions, is parameter efficient, and is more interpretable compared to state-of-the-art spatial attention approaches. Through experiments on several datasets we demonstrate that our approach can also quantitatively outperform state of the art trajectory prediction methods in terms of accuracy of predicted intent.

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