Clark Glymour

JMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

Generalized Independent Noise Condition for Estimating Causal Structure with Latent Variables

• Feng Xie
• Biwei Huang
• Zhengming Chen
• Ruichu Cai
• Clark Glymour
• Zhi Geng
• Kun Zhang

We investigate the challenging task of learning causal structure in the presence of latent variables, including locating latent variables, determining their quantity, and identifying causal relationships among both latent and observed variables. To address this, we propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition for linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models that incorporate latent variables, which establishes the independence between a linear combination of certain measured variables and some other measured variables. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $\bf{Y}$ and $\bf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $\omega^{\intercal}\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ are statistically independent, where $\omega$ is a non-zero parameter vector determined by the cross-covariance between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$. We then give necessary and sufficient graphical criteria of the GIN condition in linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models. From a graphical perspective, roughly speaking, GIN implies the existence of a set $\mathcal{S}$ such that $\mathcal{S}$ is causally earlier (w.r.t. the causal ordering) than $\mathbf{Y}$, and that every active (collider-free) path between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ must contain a node from $\mathcal{S}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition (i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent of the residual derived from regressing the effect on the causes) can be seen as a special case of GIN. With such a connection between GIN and latent causal structures, we further leverage the proposed GIN condition, together with a well-designed search procedure, to efficiently estimate Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent Hierarchical Models (LiNGLaHs), where latent confounders may also be causally related and may even follow a hierarchical structure. We show that the underlying causal structure of a LiNGLaH is identifiable in light of GIN conditions under mild assumptions. Experimental results on both synthetic and three real-world data sets show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2024. ( edit, beta )

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Action-Sufficient State Representation Learning for Control with Structural Constraints

• Biwei Huang
• Chaochao Lu
• Liu Leqi
• José Miguel Hernández-Lobato
• Clark Glymour
• Bernhard Schölkopf
• Kun Zhang 0001

Perceived signals in real-world scenarios are usually high-dimensional and noisy, and finding and using their representation that contains essential and sufficient information required by downstream decision-making tasks will help improve computational efficiency and generalization ability in the tasks. In this paper, we focus on partially observable environments and propose to learn a minimal set of state representations that capture sufficient information for decision-making, termed Action-Sufficient state Representations (ASRs). We build a generative environment model for the structural relationships among variables in the system and present a principled way to characterize ASRs based on structural constraints and the goal of maximizing cumulative reward in policy learning. We then develop a structured sequential Variational Auto-Encoder to estimate the environment model and extract ASRs. Our empirical results on CarRacing and VizDoom demonstrate a clear advantage of learning and using ASRs for policy learning. Moreover, the estimated environment model and ASRs allow learning behaviors from imagined outcomes in the compact latent space to improve sample efficiency.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Latent Hierarchical Causal Structure Discovery with Rank Constraints

• Biwei Huang
• Charles Jia Han Low
• Feng Xie
• Clark Glymour
• Kun Zhang

Most causal discovery procedures assume that there are no latent confounders in the system, which is often violated in real-world problems. In this paper, we consider a challenging scenario for causal structure identification, where some variables are latent and they may form a hierarchical graph structure to generate the measured variables; the children of latent variables may still be latent and only leaf nodes are measured, and moreover, there can be multiple paths between every pair of variables (i. e. , it is beyond tree structure). We propose an estimation procedure that can efficiently locate latent variables, determine their cardinalities, and identify the latent hierarchical structure, by leveraging rank deficiency constraints over the measured variables. We show that the proposed algorithm can find the correct Markov equivalence class of the whole graph asymptotically under proper restrictions on the graph structure and with linear causal relations.

JMLR Journal 2020 Journal Article

Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data

• Biwei Huang
• Kun Zhang
• Jiji Zhang
• Joseph Ramsey
• Ruben Sanchez-Romero
• Clark Glymour
• Bernhard Schölkopf

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the “driving force” of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2020. ( edit, beta )

AAAI Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery from Multiple Data Sets with Non-Identical Variable Sets

• Biwei Huang
• Kun Zhang
• Mingming Gong
• Clark Glymour

A number of approaches to causal discovery assume that there are no hidden confounders and are designed to learn a fixed causal model from a single data set. Over the last decade, with closer cooperation across laboratories, we are able to accumulate more variables and data for analysis, while each lab may only measure a subset of them, due to technical constraints or to save time and cost. This raises a question of how to handle causal discovery from multiple data sets with non-identical variable sets, and at the same time, it would be interesting to see how more recorded variables can help to mitigate the confounding problem. In this paper, we propose a principled method to uniquely identify causal relationships over the integrated set of variables from multiple data sets, in linear, non-Gaussian cases. The proposed method also allows distribution shifts across data sets. Theoretically, we show that the causal structure over the integrated set of variables is identifiable under testable conditions. Furthermore, we present two types of approaches to parameter estimation: one is based on maximum likelihood, and the other is likelihood free and leverages generative adversarial nets to improve scalability of the estimation procedure. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of our methods.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Domain Adaptation as a Problem of Inference on Graphical Models

• Kun Zhang
• Mingming Gong
• Petar Stojanov
• Biwei Huang
• Qingsong Liu
• Clark Glymour

This paper is concerned with data-driven unsupervised domain adaptation, where it is unknown in advance how the joint distribution changes across domains, i. e. , what factors or modules of the data distribution remain invariant or change across domains. To develop an automated way of domain adaptation with multiple source domains, we propose to use a graphical model as a compact way to encode the change property of the joint distribution, which can be learned from data, and then view domain adaptation as a problem of Bayesian inference on the graphical models. Such a graphical model distinguishes between constant and varied modules of the distribution and specifies the properties of the changes across domains, which serves as prior knowledge of the changing modules for the purpose of deriving the posterior of the target variable $Y$ in the target domain. This provides an end-to-end framework of domain adaptation, in which additional knowledge about how the joint distribution changes, if available, can be directly incorporated to improve the graphical representation. We discuss how causality-based domain adaptation can be put under this umbrella. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework for domain adaptation.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Generalized Independent Noise Condition for Estimating Latent Variable Causal Graphs

• Feng Xie
• Ruichu Cai
• Biwei Huang
• Clark Glymour
• Zhifeng Hao
• Kun Zhang

Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures or models underlying the observed data. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods focus on causal relations between observed variables, while in many scenarios the observed ones may not be the underlying causal variables (e. g. , image pixels), but are generated by latent causal variables or confounders that are causally related. To this end, in this paper, we consider Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent variable Models (LiNGLaMs), in which latent confounders are also causally related, and propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition to estimate such latent variable graphs. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $\omega^{\intercal}\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ are statistically independent, where $\omega$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross-covariance between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$. From the graphical view, roughly speaking, GIN implies that causally earlier latent common causes of variables in $\mathbf{Y}$ d-separate $\mathbf{Y}$ from $\mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition, i. e. , if there is no confounder, causes are independent from the error of regressing the effect on the causes, can be seen as a special case of GIN. Moreover, we show that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure, including causal directions. We further develop a recursive learning algorithm to achieve these goals. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery and Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments with State-Space Models

• Biwei Huang
• Kun Zhang 0001
• Mingming Gong
• Clark Glymour

In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are particularly challenging in such nonstationary environments. In this paper, we study causal discovery and forecasting for nonstationary time series. By exploiting a particular type of state-space model to represent the processes, we show that nonstationarity helps to identify the causal structure, and that forecasting naturally benefits from learned causal knowledge. Specifically, we allow changes in both causal strengths and noise variances in the nonlinear state-space models, which, interestingly, renders both the causal structure and model parameters identifiable. Given the causal model, we treat forecasting as a problem in Bayesian inference in the causal model, which exploits the time-varying property of the data and adapts to new observations in a principled manner. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Specific and Shared Causal Relation Modeling and Mechanism-Based Clustering

• Biwei Huang
• Kun Zhang
• Pengtao Xie
• Mingming Gong
• Eric Xing
• Clark Glymour

State-of-the-art approaches to causal discovery usually assume a fixed underlying causal model. However, it is often the case that causal models vary across domains or subjects, due to possibly omitted factors that affect the quantitative causal effects. As a typical example, causal connectivity in the brain network has been reported to vary across individuals, with significant differences across groups of people, such as autistics and typical controls. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for causal discovery and mechanism-based group identification. In particular, we propose a specific and shared causal model (SSCM), which takes into account the variabilities of causal relations across individuals/groups and leverages their commonalities to achieve statistically reliable estimation. The learned SSCM gives the specific causal knowledge for each individual as well as the general trend over the population. In addition, the estimated model directly provides the group information of each individual. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Triad Constraints for Learning Causal Structure of Latent Variables

• Ruichu Cai
• Feng Xie
• Clark Glymour
• Zhifeng Hao
• Kun Zhang

Learning causal structure from observational data has attracted much attention, and it is notoriously challenging to find the underlying structure in the presence of confounders (hidden direct common causes of two variables). In this paper, by properly leveraging the non-Gaussianity of the data, we propose to estimate the structure over latent variables with the so-called Triad constraints: we design a form of "pseudo-residual" from three variables, and show that when causal relations are linear and noise terms are non-Gaussian, the causal direction between the latent variables for the three observed variables is identifiable by checking a certain kind of independence relationship. In other words, the Triad constraints help us to locate latent confounders and determine the causal direction between them. This goes far beyond the Tetrad constraints and reveals more information about the underlying structure from non-Gaussian data. Finally, based on the Triad constraints, we develop a two-step algorithm to learn the causal structure corresponding to measurement models. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our method.

UAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery with Linear Non-Gaussian Models under Measurement Error: Structural Identifiability Results

• Kun Zhang 0001
• Mingming Gong
• Joseph D. Ramsey
• Kayhan Batmanghelich
• Peter Spirtes
• Clark Glymour

Causal discovery methods aim to recover the causal process that generated purely observational data. Despite its successes on a number of real problems, the presence of measurement error in the observed data can produce serious mistakes in the output of various causal discovery methods. Given the ubiquity of measurement error caused by instruments or proxies used in the measuring process, this problem is one of the main obstacles to reliable causal discovery. It is still unknown to what extent the causal structure of relevant variables can be identified in principle. This study aims to take a step towards filling that void. We assume that the underlining process or the measurement-error free variables follows a linear, non-Guassian causal model, and show that the so-called ordered group decomposition of the causal model, which contains major causal information, is identifiable. The causal structure identifiability is further improved with different types of sparsity constraints on the causal structure. Finally, we give rather mild conditions under which the whole causal structure is fully identifiable.

IJCAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery from Nonstationary/Heterogeneous Data: Skeleton Estimation and Orientation Determination

• Kun Zhang
• Biwei Huang
• Jiji Zhang
• Clark Glymour
• Bernhard Schölkopf

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary or heterogeneous data, of which the underlying generating process changes over time or across data sets (the data sets may have different experimental conditions or data collection conditions). Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we develop a principled framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from Nonstationary/heterogeneous Data (CD-NOD), which addresses two important questions. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a way to determine causal orientations by making use of independence changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of our methods.

UAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery from Temporally Aggregated Time Series

• Mingming Gong
• Kun Zhang 0001
• Bernhard Schölkopf
• Clark Glymour
• Dacheng Tao

Discovering causal structure of a dynamical system from observed time series is a traditional and important problem. In many practical applications, observed data are obtained by applying subsampling or temporally aggregation to the original causal processes, making it difficult to discover the underlying causal relations. Subsampling refers to the procedure that for every k consecutive observations, one is kept, the rest being skipped, and recently some advances have been made in causal discovery from such data. With temporal aggregation, the local averages or sums of k consecutive, non-overlapping observations in the causal process are computed as new observations, and causal discovery from such data is even harder. In this paper, we investigate how to recover causal relations at the original causal frequency from temporally aggregated data when k is known. Assuming the time series at the causal frequency follows a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we show that the causal structure at the causal frequency is identifiable from aggregated time series if the noise terms are independent and non-Gaussian and some other technical conditions hold. We then present an estimation method based on non-Gaussian state-space modeling and evaluate its performance on both synthetic and real data.

ICML Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Domain Adaptation with Conditional Transferable Components

• Mingming Gong
• Kun Zhang 0001
• Tongliang Liu
• Dacheng Tao
• Clark Glymour
• Bernhard Schölkopf

Domain adaptation arises in supervised learning when the training (source domain) and test (target domain) data have different distributions. Let X and Y denote the features and target, respectively, previous work on domain adaptation considers the covariate shift situation where the distribution of the features P(X) changes across domains while the conditional distribution P(Y|X) stays the same. To reduce domain discrepancy, recent methods try to find invariant components \mathcalT(X) that have similar P(\mathcalT(X)) by explicitly minimizing a distribution discrepancy measure. However, it is not clear if P(Y|\mathcalT(X)) in different domains is also similar when P(Y|X) changes. Furthermore, transferable components do not necessarily have to be invariant. If the change in some components is identifiable, we can make use of such components for prediction in the target domain. In this paper, we focus on the case where P(X|Y) and P(Y) both change in a causal system in which Y is the cause for X. Under appropriate assumptions, we aim to extract conditional transferable components whose conditional distribution P(\mathcalT(X)|Y) is invariant after proper location-scale (LS) transformations, and identify how P(Y) changes between domains simultaneously. We provide theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real-world data to show the effectiveness of our method.

UAI Conference 2016 Conference Paper

On the Identifiability and Estimation of Functional Causal Models in the Presence of Outcome-Dependent Selection

• Kun Zhang 0001
• Jiji Zhang
• Biwei Huang
• Bernhard Schölkopf
• Clark Glymour

We study the identifiability and estimation of functional causal models under selection bias, with a focus on the situation where the selection depends solely on the e↵ect variable, which is known as outcome-dependent selection. We address two questions of identifiability: the identifiability of the causal direction between two variables in the presence of selection bias, and, given the causal direction, the identifiability of the model with outcomedependent selection. Regarding the first, we show that in the framework of post-nonlinear causal models, once outcome-dependent selection is properly modeled, the causal direction between two variables is generically identifiable; regarding the second, we identify some mild conditions under which an additive noise causal model with outcome-dependent selection is to a large extent identifiable. We also propose two methods for estimating an additive noise model from data that are generated with outcome-dependent selection.

YNIMG Journal 2014 Journal Article

Non-Gaussian methods and high-pass filters in the estimation of effective connections

• Joseph D. Ramsey
• Ruben Sanchez-Romero
• Clark Glymour

We consider several alternative ways of exploiting non-Gaussian distributional features, including some that can in principle identify direct, positive feedback relations (graphically, 2-cycles) and combinations of methods that can identify high dimensional graphs. All of the procedures are implemented in the TETRAD freeware (Ramsey et al. , 2013). We show that in most cases the limited accuracy of the several non-Gaussian methods in the Smith et al. (2011) simulations can be attributed to the high-pass Butterworth filter used in that study. Without that filter, or with the filter in the widely used FSL program (Jenkinson et al. , 2012), the directional accuracies of several of the non-Gaussian methods are at or near ceiling in many conditions of the Smith et al. simulation. We show that the improvement of an apparently Gaussian method (Patel et al. , 2006) when filtering is removed is due to non-Gaussian features of that method introduced by the Smith et al. implementation. We also investigate some conditions in which multi-subject data help with causal structure identification using higher moments, notably with non-stationary time series or with 2-cycles. We illustrate the accuracy of the methods with more complex graphs with and without 2-cycles, and with a 500 node graph; to illustrate applicability and provide a further test we apply the methods to an empirical case for which aspects of the causal structure are known. Finally, we note a number of cautions and issues that remain to be investigated, and some outstanding problems for determining the structure of effective connections from fMRI data.

YNIMG Journal 2013 Journal Article

Counterfactuals, graphical causal models and potential outcomes: Response to Lindquist and Sobel

• Clark Glymour

Lindquist and Sobel claim that the graphical causal models they call “agnostic” do not imply any counterfactual conditionals. They doubt that “causal effects” can be discovered using graphical causal models typical of SEMs, DCMs, Bayes nets, Granger causal models, etc. Each of these claims is false or exaggerated. They recommend instead that investigators adopt the “potential outcomes” framework. The potential outcomes framework is an obstacle rather than an aid to discovering causal relations in fMRI contexts.

YNIMG Journal 2011 Journal Article

Multi-subject search correctly identifies causal connections and most causal directions in the DCM models of the Smith et al. simulation study

• Joseph D. Ramsey
• Stephen José Hanson
• Clark Glymour

Smith et al. report a large study of the accuracy of 38 search procedures for recovering effective connections in simulations of DCM models under 28 different conditions. Their results are disappointing: no method reliably finds and directs connections without large false negatives, large false positives, or both. Using multiple subject inputs, we apply a previously published search algorithm, IMaGES, and novel orientation algorithms, LOFS, in tandem to all of the simulations of DCM models described by Smith et al. (2011). We find that the procedures accurately identify effective connections in almost all of the conditions that Smith et al. simulated and, in most conditions, direct causal connections with precision greater than 90% and recall greater than 80%.

NeurIPS Conference 2008 Conference Paper

Integrating Locally Learned Causal Structures with Overlapping Variables

• David Danks
• Clark Glymour
• Robert Tillman

In many domains, data are distributed among datasets that share only some variables; other recorded variables may occur in only one dataset. There are several asymptotically correct, informative algorithms that search for causal information given a single dataset, even with missing values and hidden variables. There are, however, no such reliable procedures for distributed data with overlapping variables, and only a single heuristic procedure (Structural EM). This paper describes an asymptotically correct procedure, ION, that provides all the information about structure obtainable from the marginal independence relations. Using simulated and real data, the accuracy of ION is compared with that of Structural EM, and with inference on complete, unified data.

JMLR Journal 2008 Journal Article

Search for Additive Nonlinear Time Series Causal Models

• Tianjiao Chu
• Clark Glymour

Pointwise consistent, feasible procedures for estimating contemporaneous linear causal structure from time series data have been developed using multiple conditional independence tests, but no such procedures are available for non-linear systems. We describe a feasible procedure for learning a class of non-linear time series structures, which we call additive non-linear time series. We show that for data generated from stationary models of this type, two classes of conditional independence relations among time series variables and their lags can be tested efficiently and consistently using tests based on additive model regression. Combining results of statistical tests for these two classes of conditional independence relations and the temporal structure of time series data, a new consistent model specification procedure is able to extract relatively detailed causal information. We investigate the finite sample behavior of the procedure through simulation, and illustrate the application of this method through analysis of the possible causal connections among four ocean indices. Several variants of the procedure are also discussed. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2008. ( edit, beta )

JMLR Journal 2006 Journal Article

Learning the Structure of Linear Latent Variable Models

• Ricardo Silva
• Richard Scheine
• Clark Glymour
• Peter Spirtes

We describe anytime search procedures that (1) find disjoint subsets of recorded variables for which the members of each subset are d-separated by a single common unrecorded cause, if such exists; (2) return information about the causal relations among the latent factors so identified. We prove the procedure is point-wise consistent assuming (a) the causal relations can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) satisfying the Markov Assumption and the Faithfulness Assumption; (b) unrecorded variables are not caused by recorded variables; and (c) dependencies are linear. We compare the procedure with standard approaches over a variety of simulated structures and sample sizes, and illustrate its practical value with brief studies of social science data sets. Finally, we consider generalizations for non-linear systems. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2006. ( edit, beta )

UAI Conference 2005 Conference Paper

On the Number of Experiments Sufficient and in the Worst Case Necessary to Identify All Causal Relations Among N Variables

• Frederick Eberhardt
• Clark Glymour
• Richard Scheines

We show that if any number of variables are allowed to be simultaneously and independently randomized in any one experiment, log2(N) + 1 experiments are sufficient and in the worst case necessary to determine the causal relations among N >= 2 variables when no latent variables, no sample selection bias and no feedback cycles are present. For all K, 0 < K < 1/(2N) we provide an upper bound on the number experiments required to determine causal structure when each experiment simultaneously randomizes K variables. For large N, these bounds are significantly lower than the N - 1 bound required when each experiment randomizes at most one variable. For kmax < N/2 , we show that (N/kmax-1)+N/(2kmax)log2(kmax) experiments aresufficient and in the worst case necessary. We over a conjecture as to the minimal number of experiments that are in the worst case sufficient to identify all causal relations among N observed variables that are a subset of the vertices of a DAG.

UAI Conference 2003 Conference Paper

Learning Measurement Models for Unobserved Variables

• Ricardo Bezerra de Andrade e Silva
• Richard Scheines
• Clark Glymour
• Peter Spirtes

Observed associations in a database may be due in whole or part to variations in unrecorded (latent) variables. Identifying such variables and their causal relationships with one another is a principal goal in many scientific and practical domains. Previous work shows that, given a partition of observed variables such that members of a class share only a single latent common cause, standard search algorithms for causal Bayes nets can infer structural relations between latent variables. We introduce an algorithm for discovering such partitions when they exist. Uniquely among available procedures, the algorithm is (asymptotically) correct under standard assumptions in causal Bayes net search algorithms, requires no prior knowledge of the number of latent variables, and does not depend on the mathematical form of the relationships among the latent variables. We evaluate the algorithm on a variety of simulated data sets.

UAI Conference 2001 Conference Paper

Linearity Properties of Bayes Nets with Binary Variables

• David Danks
• Clark Glymour

It is "well known" that in linear models: (1) testable constraints on the marginal distribution of observed variables distinguish certain cases in which an unobserved cause jointly influences several observed variables; (2) the technique of "instrumental variables" sometimes permits an estimation of the influence of one variable on another even when the association between the variables may be confounded by unobserved common causes; (3) the association (or conditional probability distribution of one variable given another) of two variables connected by a path or trek can be computed directly from the parameter values associated with each edge in the path or trek; (4) the association of two variables produced by multiple treks can be computed from the parameters associated with each trek; and (5) the independence of two variables conditional on a third implies the corresponding independence of the sums of the variables over all units conditional on the sums over all units of each of the original conditioning variables.These properties are exploited in search procedures. It is also known that properties (2)-(5) do not hold for all Bayes nets with binary variables. We show that (1) holds for all Bayes nets with binary variables and (5) holds for all singly trek-connected Bayes nets of that kind. We further show that all five properties hold for Bayes nets with any DAG and binary variables parameterized with noisy-or and noisy-and gates.

UAI Conference 1998 Conference Paper

Psychological and Normative Theories of Causal Power and the Probabilities of Causes

• Clark Glymour

This paper (1)shows that the best supported current psychological theory (Cheng, 1997) of how human subjects judge the causal power or influence of variations in presence or absence of one feature on another, given data on their covariation, tacitly uses a Bayes network which is either a noisy or gate (for causes that promote the effect) or a noisy and gate (for causes that inhibit the effect); (2)generalizes Chengs theory to arbitrary acyclic networks of noisy or and noisy and gates; (3)gives various sufficient conditions for the estimation of the parameters in such networks when there are independent, unobserved causes; (4)distinguishes direct causal influence of one feature on another (influence along a path with one edge) from total influence (influence along all paths from one variable to another) and gives sufficient conditions for estimating each when there are unobserved causes of the outcome variable; (5)describes the relation between Cheng models and a simplified version of the Rubin framework for representing causal relations.

AIIM Journal 1997 Journal Article

An evaluation of machine-learning methods for predicting pneumonia mortality

• Gregory F. Cooper
• Constantin F. Aliferis
• Richard Ambrosino
• John Aronis
• Bruce G. Buchanan
• Richard Caruana
• Michael J. Fine
• Clark Glymour

This paper describes the application of eight statistical and machine-learning methods to derive computer models for predicting mortality of hospital patients with pneumonia from their findings at initial presentation. The eight models were each constructed based on 9847 patient cases and they were each evaluated on 4352 additional cases. The primary evaluation metric was the error in predicted survival as a function of the fraction of patients predicted to survive. This metric is useful in assessing a model's potential to assist a clinician in deciding whether to treat a given patient in the hospital or at home. We examined the error rates of the models when predicting that a given fraction of patients will survive. We examined survival fractions between 0. 1 and 0. 6. Over this range, each model's predictive error rate was within 1% of the error rate of every other model. When predicting that approximately 30% of the patients will survive, all the models have an error rate of less than 1. 5%. The models are distinguished more by the number of variables and parameters that they contain than by their error rates; these differences suggest which models may be the most amenable to future implementation as paper-based guidelines.

AIJ Journal 1985 Journal Article

Independence assumptions and Bayesian updating

• Clark Glymour

NMR Workshop 1984 Conference Paper

Default Reasoning and the Logic of Theory Perturbation

• Clark Glymour
• Richmond H. Thomason