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Ciara Pike-Burke

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22 papers
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22

EWRL Workshop 2025 Workshop Paper

Does Stochastic Gradient really succeed for bandits?

  • Dorian Baudry
  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Simon Vary
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

Recent works of Mei et al. (2023, 2024) have deepened the theoretical understanding of the Stochastic Gradient Bandit (SGB) policy, showing that using a constant learning rate guarantees asymptotic convergence to the optimal policy, and that sufficiently small learning rates can yield logarithmic regret. However, whether logarithmic regret holds beyond small learning rates remains unclear. In this work, we take a step towards characterizing the regret regimes of SGB as a function of its learning rate. For two--armed bandits, we identify a sharp threshold, scaling with the sub-optimality gap $\Delta$, below which SGB achieves logarithmic regret on all instances, and above which it can incur polynomial regret on some instances. This result highlights the necessity of knowing (or estimating) $\Delta$ to ensure logarithmic regret with a constant learning rate. For general $K$-armed bandits, we further show the learning rate must scale inversely with $K$ to avoid polynomial regret. We introduce novel techniques to derive regret upper bounds for SGB, laying the groundwork for future advances in the theory of gradient-based bandit algorithms.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Does Stochastic Gradient really succeed for bandits?

  • Dorian Baudry
  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Simon Vary
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

Recent works of Mei et al. (2023, 2024) have deepened the theoretical understanding of the *Stochastic Gradient Bandit* (SGB) policy, showing that using a constant learning rate guarantees asymptotic convergence to the optimal policy, and that sufficiently *small* learning rates can yield logarithmic regret. However, whether logarithmic regret holds beyond small learning rates remains unclear. In this work, we take a step towards characterizing the regret *regimes* of SGB as a function of its learning rate. For two--armed bandits, we identify a sharp threshold, scaling with the sub-optimality gap $\Delta$, below which SGB achieves *logarithmic* regret on all instances, and above which it can incur *polynomial* regret on some instances. This result highlights the necessity of knowing (or estimating) $\Delta$ to ensure logarithmic regret with a constant learning rate. For general $K$-armed bandits, we further show the learning rate must scale inversely with $K$ to avoid polynomial regret. We introduce novel techniques to derive regret upper bounds for SGB, laying the groundwork for future advances in the theory of gradient-based bandit algorithms.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Fixed-Confidence Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback

  • Joseph Lazzaro
  • Ciara Pike-Burke

Piecewise constant functions describe a variety of real-world phenomena in domains ranging from chemistry to manufacturing. In practice, it is often required to confidently identify the locations of the abrupt changes in these functions as quickly as possible. For this, we introduce a fixed-confidence piecewise constant bandit problem. Here, we sequentially query points in the domain and receive noisy evaluations of the function under bandit feedback. We provide instance-dependent lower bounds for the complexity of change point identification in this problem. These lower bounds illustrate that an optimal method should focus its sampling efforts adjacent to each of the change points, and the number of samples around each change point should be inversely proportional to the magnitude of the change. Building on this, we devise a simple and computationally efficient variant of Track-and-Stop and prove that it is asymptotically optimal in many regimes. We support our theoretical findings with experimental results in synthetic environments demonstrating the efficiency of our method.

EWRL Workshop 2025 Workshop Paper

Locally Differentially Private Thresholding Bandits

  • Annalisa Barbara
  • Joseph Lazzaro
  • Ciara Pike-Burke

This work investigates the impact of ensuring local differential privacy in the thresholding bandit problem. We consider both the fixed budget and fixed confidence settings. We propose methods that utilize private responses, obtained through a Bernoulli-based differentially private mechanism, to identify arms with expected rewards exceeding a predefined threshold. We show that this procedure provides strong privacy guarantees and derive theoretical performance bounds on the proposed algorithms. Additionally, we present general lower bounds that characterize the additional loss incurred by any differentially private mechanism, and show that the presented algorithms match these lower bounds up to poly-logarithmic factors. Our results provide valuable insights into privacy-preserving decision-making frameworks in bandit problems.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

On the necessity of adaptive regularisation: Optimal anytime online learning on $\boldsymbol{\ell_p}$-balls

  • Emmeran Johnson
  • David Martínez-Rubio
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

We study online convex optimization on $\ell_p$-balls in $\mathbb{R}^d$ for $p > 2$. While always sub-linear, the optimal regret exhibits a shift between the high-dimensional setting ($d > T$), when the dimension $d$ is greater than the time horizon $T$ and the low-dimensional setting ($d \leq T$). We show that Follow-the-Regularised-Leader (FTRL) with time-varying regularisation which is adaptive to the dimension regime is anytime optimal for all dimension regimes. Motivated by this, we ask whether it is possible to obtain anytime optimality of FTRL with fixed non-adaptive regularisation. Our main result establishes that for separable regularisers, adaptivity in the regulariser is necessary, and that any fixed regulariser will be sub-optimal in one of the two dimension regimes. Finally, we provide lower bounds which rule out sub-linear regret bounds for the linear bandit problem in sufficiently high-dimension for all $\ell_p$-balls with $p \geq 1$.

TMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning on Graphs

  • Arnaud Robert
  • Aldo A. Faisal
  • Ciara Pike-Burke

Many Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) exhibit structure in their state and action spaces that is not exploited. We consider the case where the structure can be modelled using a directed acyclic graph (DAG) composed of nodes and edges. In this case, each node has a state, and the state transition dynamics are influenced by the states and actions at its parent nodes. We propose an MDP framework, \emph{Directed Acyclic Markov Decision Process} (DAMDP) that formalises this problem, and we develop algorithms to perform planning and learning. Crucially, DAMDPs retain many of the benefits of MDPs, as we can show that Dynamic Programming can find the optimal policy in known DAMDPs. We also demonstrate how to perform Reinforcement Learning in DAMDPs when the transition probabilities and the reward function are unknown. To this end, we derive a posterior sampling-based algorithm that is able to leverage the graph structure to boost learning efficiency. Moreover, we obtain a theoretical bound on the Bayesian regret for this algorithm, which directly shows the efficiency gain from considering the graph structure. We then conclude by empirically demonstrating that by harnessing the DAMDP, our algorithm outperforms traditional posterior sampling for Reinforcement Learning in both a maximum flow problem and a real-world wind farm optimisation task.

EWRL Workshop 2025 Workshop Paper

Stochastic Shortest Path with Sparse Adversarial Costs

  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Alberto Rumi
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

We study the adversarial Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem with sparse costs under full-information feedback. In the known transition setting, existing bounds based on Online Mirror Descent (OMD) with negative-entropy regularization scale with $\sqrt{\log S A}$, where $SA$ is the size of the state-action space. While we show that this is optimal in the worst-case, this bound fails to capture the benefits of sparsity when only a small number $M \ll SA$ of state-action pairs incur cost. In fact, we also show that the negative-entropy is inherently non-adaptive to sparsity: it provably incurs regret scaling with $\sqrt{\log S}$ on sparse problems. Instead, we propose a novel family of $\ell_r$-norm regularizers ($r \in (1, 2)$) that adapts to the sparsity and achieves regret scaling with $\sqrt{\log M}$ instead of $\sqrt{\log SA}$. We show this is optimal via a matching lower bound, highlighting that $M$ captures the effective dimension of the problem instead of $SA$. Finally, in the unknown transition setting the benefits of sparsity are limited: we prove that even on sparse problems, the minimax regret for any learner scales polynomially with $SA$.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Stochastic Shortest Path with Sparse Adversarial Costs

  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Alberto Rumi
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

We study the adversarial Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem with sparse costs under full-information feedback. In the known transition setting, existing bounds based on Online Mirror Descent (OMD) with negative-entropy regularization scale with $\sqrt{\log S A}$, where $SA$ is the size of the state-action space. While we show that this is optimal in the worst-case, this bound fails to capture the benefits of sparsity when only a small number $M \ll SA$ of state-action pairs incur cost. In fact, we also show that the negative-entropy is inherently non-adaptive to sparsity: it provably incurs regret scaling with $\sqrt{\log S}$ on sparse problems. Instead, we propose a novel family of $\ell_r$-norm regularizers ($r \in (1, 2)$) that adapts to the sparsity and achieves regret scaling with $\sqrt{\log M}$ instead of $\sqrt{\log SA}$. We show this is optimal via a matching lower bound, highlighting that $M$ captures the effective dimension of the problem instead of $SA$. Finally, in the unknown transition setting the benefits of sparsity are limited: we prove that even on sparse problems, the minimax regret for any learner scales polynomially with $SA$.

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Sample-Efficiency in Multi-Batch Reinforcement Learning: The Need for Dimension-Dependent Adaptivity

  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

We theoretically explore the relationship between sample-efficiency and adaptivity in reinforcement learning. An algorithm is sample-efficient if it uses a number of queries $n$ to the environment that is polynomial in the dimension $d$ of the problem. Adaptivity refers to the frequency at which queries are sent and feedback is processed to update the querying strategy. To investigate this interplay, we employ a learning framework that allows sending queries in $K$ batches, with feedback being processed and queries updated after each batch. This model encompasses the whole adaptivity spectrum, ranging from non-adaptive `offline' ($K=1$) to fully adaptive ($K=n$) scenarios, and regimes in between. For the problems of policy evaluation and best-policy identification under $d$-dimensional linear function approximation, we establish $\Omega(\log \log d)$ lower bounds on the number of batches $K$ required for sample-efficient algorithms with $n = O(poly(d))$ queries. Our results show that just having adaptivity ($K>1$) does not necessarily guarantee sample-efficiency. Notably, the adaptivity-boundary for sample-efficiency is not between offline reinforcement learning ($K=1$), where sample-efficiency was known to not be possible, and adaptive settings. Instead, the boundary lies between different regimes of adaptivity and depends on the problem dimension.

JMLR Journal 2023 Journal Article

Bandit problems with fidelity rewards

  • Gábor Lugosi
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Pierre-André Savalle

The fidelity bandits problem is a variant of the $K$-armed bandit problem in which the reward of each arm is augmented by a fidelity reward that provides the player with an additional payoff depending on how ‘loyal’ the player has been to that arm in the past. We propose two models for fidelity. In the loyalty-points model the amount of extra reward depends on the number of times the arm has previously been played. In the subscription model the additional reward depends on the current number of consecutive draws of the arm. We consider both stochastic and adversarial problems. Since single-arm strategies are not always optimal in stochastic problems, the notion of regret in the adversarial setting needs careful adjustment. We introduce three possible notions of regret and investigate which can be bounded sublinearly. We study in detail the special cases of increasing, decreasing and coupon (where the player gets an additional reward after every $m$ plays of an arm) fidelity rewards. For the models which do not necessarily enjoy sublinear regret, we provide a worst case lower bound. For those models which exhibit sublinear regret, we provide algorithms and bound their regret. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2023. ( edit, beta )

EWRL Workshop 2023 Workshop Paper

Delayed Feedback in Generalised Linear Bandits

  • Benjamin Howson
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Sarah Lucie Filippi

The stochastic generalised linear bandit is a well-understood model for sequential decision-making problems, with many algorithms achieving near-optimal regret guarantees under immediate feedback. However, the stringent requirement for immediate rewards is unmet in many real-world applications where the reward is almost always delayed. We study the phenomenon of delayed rewards in generalised linear bandits in a theoretical manner. We show that a natural adaptation of an optimistic algorithm to the delayed feedback achieves a regret bound where the penalty for the delays is independent of the horizon. This result significantly improves upon existing work, where the best known regret bound has the delay penalty increasing with the horizon. We verify our theoretical results through experiments on simulated data.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Delayed Feedback in Kernel Bandits

  • Sattar Vakili
  • Danyal Ahmed
  • Alberto Bernacchia
  • Ciara Pike-Burke

Black box optimisation of an unknown function from expensive and noisy evaluations is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning, academic research and industrial production. An abstraction of the problem can be formulated as a kernel based bandit problem (also known as Bayesian optimisation), where a learner aims at optimising a kernelized function through sequential noisy observations. The existing work predominantly assumes feedback is immediately available; an assumption which fails in many real world situations, including recommendation systems, clinical trials and hyperparameter tuning. We consider a kernel bandit problem under stochastically delayed feedback, and propose an algorithm with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\sqrt{\Gamma_k(T) T}+\mathbb{E}[\tau]\right)$ regret, where $T$ is the number of time steps, $\Gamma_k(T)$ is the maximum information gain of the kernel with $T$ observations, and $\tau$ is the delay random variable. This represents a significant improvement over the state of the art regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\Gamma_k(T)\sqrt{ T}+\mathbb{E}[\tau]\Gamma_k(T)\right)$ reported in (Verma et al. , 2022). In particular, for very non-smooth kernels, the information gain grows almost linearly in time, trivializing the existing results. We also validate our theoretical results with simulations.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Optimal Convergence Rate for Exact Policy Mirror Descent in Discounted Markov Decision Processes

  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

Policy Mirror Descent (PMD) is a general family of algorithms that covers a wide range of novel and fundamental methods in reinforcement learning. Motivated by the instability of policy iteration (PI) with inexact policy evaluation, unregularised PMD algorithmically regularises the policy improvement step of PI without regularising the objective function. With exact policy evaluation, PI is known to converge linearly with a rate given by the discount factor $\gamma$ of a Markov Decision Process. In this work, we bridge the gap between PI and PMD with exact policy evaluation and show that the dimension-free $\gamma$-rate of PI can be achieved by the general family of unregularised PMD algorithms under an adaptive step-size. We show that both the rate and step-size are unimprovable for PMD: we provide matching lower bounds that demonstrate that the $\gamma$-rate is optimal for PMD methods as well as PI and that the adaptive step-size is necessary to achieve it. Our work is the first to relate PMD to rate-optimality and step-size necessity. Our study of the convergence of PMD avoids the use of the performance difference lemma, which leads to a direct analysis of independent interest. We also extend the analysis to the inexact setting and establish the first dimension-optimal sample complexity for unregularised PMD under a generative model, improving upon the best-known result.

EWRL Workshop 2023 Workshop Paper

Optimal Convergence Rate for Exact Policy Mirror Descent in Discounted Markov Decision Processes

  • Emmeran Johnson
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Patrick Rebeschini

Policy Mirror Descent (PMD) is a general family of algorithms that covers a wide range of novel and fundamental methods in reinforcement learning. Motivated by the instability of policy iteration (PI) with inexact policy evaluation, PMD algorithmically regularises the policy improvement step of PI. With exact policy evaluation, PI is known to converge linearly with a rate given by the discount factor $\gamma$ of a Markov Decision Process. In this work, we bridge the gap between PI and PMD with exact policy evaluation and show that the dimension-free $\gamma$-rate of PI can be achieved by the general family of unregularised PMD algorithms under an adaptive step-size. We show that both the rate and step-size are unimprovable for PMD: we provide matching lower bounds that demonstrate that the $\gamma$-rate is optimal for PMD methods as well as PI and that the adaptive step-size is necessary to achieve it. Our work is the first to relate PMD to rate-optimality and step-size necessity. Our study of the convergence of PMD avoids the use of the performance difference lemma, which leads to a direct analysis of independent interest. We also extend the analysis to the inexact setting and establish the first dimension-optimal sample complexity for unregularised PMD under a generative model, improving upon the best-known result.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Sample Complexity of Goal-Conditioned Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

  • Arnaud Robert
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Aldo A. Faisal

Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) algorithms can perform planning at multiple levels of abstraction. Empirical results have shown that state or temporal abstractions might significantly improve the sample efficiency of algorithms. Yet, we still do not have a complete understanding of the basis of those efficiency gains nor any theoretically grounded design rules. In this paper, we derive a lower bound on the sample complexity for the considered class of goal-conditioned HRL algorithms. The proposed lower bound empowers us to quantify the benefits of hierarchical decomposition and leads to the design of a simple Q-learning-type algorithm that leverages hierarchical decompositions. We empirically validate our theoretical findings by investigating the sample complexity of the proposed hierarchical algorithm on a spectrum of tasks (hierarchical $n$-rooms, Gymnasium's Taxi). The hierarchical $n$-rooms tasks were designed to allow us to dial their complexity over multiple orders of magnitude. Our theory and algorithmic findings provide a step towards answering the foundational question of quantifying the improvement hierarchical decomposition offers over monolithic solutions in reinforcement learning.

EWRL Workshop 2023 Workshop Paper

Sample Complexity of Goal-Conditioned Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

  • Arnaud Robert
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Aldo A. Faisal

Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) algorithms can perform planning at multiple levels of abstraction. Empirical results have shown that state or temporal abstractions might significantly improve the sample efficiency of algorithms. Yet, our current understanding does not fully capture the basis of those efficiency gains; nor any theoretically-grounded design rules. In this paper, we derive a lower bound on the sample complexity for the proposed class of goal-conditioned HRL algorithms (e. g. Dot-2-Dot) that leads us to a novel Q-learning algorithm and establishes the relationship between the sample complexity and the nature of the decomposition. Specifically, the proposed lower bound on the sample complexity of such HRL algorithms allows us to quantify the benefits of hierarchical decomposition. We build upon this to formulate a simple Q-learning-type algorithm that leverages goal-hierarchical decomposition. We empirically validate our theoretical findings by investigating the sample complexity of the proposed hierarchical algorithm on a spectrum of tasks. The specific task design allows us to dial up or down their complexity over multiple orders of magnitude. Our theory and algorithmic findings provide a step towards answering the foundational question of quantifying the benefits that hierarchical decomposition provides over monolithic solutions in reinforcement learning.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Trading-Off Payments and Accuracy in Online Classification with Paid Stochastic Experts

  • Dirk van der Hoeven
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Hao Qiu
  • Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

We investigate online classification with paid stochastic experts. Here, before making their prediction, each expert must be paid. The amount that we pay each expert directly influences the accuracy of their prediction through some unknown Lipschitz “productivity” function. In each round, the learner must decide how much to pay each expert and then make a prediction. They incur a cost equal to a weighted sum of the prediction error and upfront payments for all experts. We introduce an online learning algorithm whose total cost after $T$ rounds exceeds that of a predictor which knows the productivity of all experts in advance by at most $\mathcal{O}\big(K^2(\ln T)\sqrt{T}\big)$ where $K$ is the number of experts. In order to achieve this result, we combine Lipschitz bandits and online classification with surrogate losses. These tools allow us to improve upon the bound of order $T^{2/3}$ one would obtain in the standard Lipschitz bandit setting. Our algorithm is empirically evaluated on synthetic data.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Local Differential Privacy for Regret Minimization in Reinforcement Learning

  • Evrard Garcelon
  • Vianney Perchet
  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Matteo Pirotta

Reinforcement learning algorithms are widely used in domains where it is desirable to provide a personalized service. In these domains it is common that user data contains sensitive information that needs to be protected from third parties. Motivated by this, we study privacy in the context of finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) by requiring information to be obfuscated on the user side. We formulate this notion of privacy for RL by leveraging the local differential privacy (LDP) framework. We establish a lower bound for regret minimization in finite-horizon MDPs with LDP guarantees which shows that guaranteeing privacy has a multiplicative effect on the regret. This result shows that while LDP is an appealing notion of privacy, it makes the learning problem significantly more complex. Finally, we present an optimistic algorithm that simultaneously satisfies $\varepsilon$-LDP requirements, and achieves $\sqrt{K}/\varepsilon$ regret in any finite-horizon MDP after $K$ episodes, matching the lower bound dependency on the number of episodes $K$.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

A Unifying View of Optimism in Episodic Reinforcement Learning

  • Gergely Neu
  • Ciara Pike-Burke

The principle of ``optimism in the face of uncertainty'' underpins many theoretically successful reinforcement learning algorithms. In this paper we provide a general framework for designing, analyzing and implementing such algorithms in the episodic reinforcement learning problem. This framework is built upon Lagrangian duality, and demonstrates that every model-optimistic algorithm that constructs an optimistic MDP has an equivalent representation as a value-optimistic dynamic programming algorithm. Typically, it was thought that these two classes of algorithms were distinct, with model-optimistic algorithms benefiting from a cleaner probabilistic analysis while value-optimistic algorithms are easier to implement and thus more practical. With the framework developed in this paper, we show that it is possible to get the best of both worlds by providing a class of algorithms which have a computationally efficient dynamic-programming implementation and also a simple probabilistic analysis. Besides being able to capture many existing algorithms in the tabular setting, our framework can also address large-scale problems under realizable function approximation, where it enables a simple model-based analysis of some recently proposed methods.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Recovering Bandits

  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Steffen Grunewalder

We study the recovering bandits problem, a variant of the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem where the expected reward of each arm varies according to some unknown function of the time since the arm was last played. While being a natural extension of the classical bandit problem that arises in many real-world settings, this variation is accompanied by significant difficulties. In particular, methods need to plan ahead and estimate many more quantities than in the classical bandit setting. In this work, we explore the use of Gaussian processes to tackle the estimation and planing problem. We also discuss different regret definitions that let us quantify the performance of the methods. To improve computational efficiency of the methods, we provide an optimistic planning approximation. We complement these discussions with regret bounds and empirical studies.

ICML Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Bandits with Delayed, Aggregated Anonymous Feedback

  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Shipra Agrawal 0001
  • Csaba Szepesvári
  • Steffen Grünewälder

We study a variant of the stochastic $K$-armed bandit problem, which we call "bandits with delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback”. In this problem, when the player pulls an arm, a reward is generated, however it is not immediately observed. Instead, at the end of each round the player observes only the sum of a number of previously generated rewards which happen to arrive in the given round. The rewards are stochastically delayed and due to the aggregated nature of the observations, the information of which arm led to a particular reward is lost. The question is what is the cost of the information loss due to this delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback? Previous works have studied bandits with stochastic, non-anonymous delays and found that the regret increases only by an additive factor relating to the expected delay. In this paper, we show that this additive regret increase can be maintained in the harder delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback setting when the expected delay (or a bound on it) is known. We provide an algorithm that matches the worst case regret of the non-anonymous problem exactly when the delays are bounded, and up to logarithmic factors or an additive variance term for unbounded delays.

EWRL Workshop 2018 Workshop Paper

Recovering Bandits

  • Ciara Pike-Burke
  • Steffen Grunewalder

We study a variant of the non-stationary stochastic K-armed bandit problem which we call recovering bandits. In this problem, the expected reward of each arm changes depending on the time since the arm was last played according to some unknown recovery function. This problem arises in many settings, for example in product recommendation when after a user makes a purchase, we wish to wait before suggesting the same product again. In the recovering bandits problem, the reward at time t depends on all previous actions, so finding the optimal sequence of T actions would be infeasible. In this paper, we discuss alternative strategies which perform well theoretically and experimentally. Specifically, we assume the recovery functions take the form of a Gaussian process and present UCB and Thompson Sampling algorithms which achieve high instantaneous reward (reward from the played arm) and lookahead reward (total reward from the next d arms).

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