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Chirag Gupta

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10 papers

2 author rows

AAMAS Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Does Calibration Affect Human Actions?

Meir Nizri
Amos Azaria
Chirag Gupta
Noam Hazon

Calibration has been proposed as a way to enhance the reliability and adoption of machine learning classifiers. We study a particular aspect of this proposal: how does calibrating a classification model affect the decisions made by non-expert humans consuming the model’s predictions? We performed a Human–Computer Interaction (HCI) experiment to assess the effect of calibration on (i) trust in the model and (ii) the correlation between decisions and predictions. Wealsoproposefurthercorrectionstothereportedcalibrated scores based on Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory from behavioral economics, and study the effect of these corrections on trust and decision-making. We found that calibration alone was not sufficient: applying the prospect-theory–based correction is crucial for increasing the correlation between human decisions and the model predictions. While this increased correlation suggests higher trust in the model, responses to “Do you trust the model more? ” are unaffected by the method used. For the full paper, see: https: //arxiv. org/abs/2508. 18317

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Learning from Interval Targets

Rattana Pukdee
Ziqi Ke
Chirag Gupta

We study the problem of regression with interval targets, where only upper and lower bounds on target values are available in the form of intervals. This problem arises when the exact target label is expensive or impossible to obtain, due to inherent uncertainties. In the absence of exact targets, traditional regression loss functions cannot be used. First, we study the methodology of using a loss functions compatible with interval targets, for which we establish non-asymptotic generalization bounds based on smoothness of the hypothesis class that significantly relaxing prior assumptions of realizability and small ambiguity degree. Second, we propose a novel min-max learning formulation: minimize against the worst-case (maximized) target labels within the provided intervals. The maximization problem in the latter is non-convex, but we show that good performance can be achieved with the incorporation of smoothness constraints. Finally, we perform extensive experiments on real-world datasets and show that our methods achieve state-of-the-art performance.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Online Platt Scaling with Calibeating

Chirag Gupta
Aaditya Ramdas

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i. i. d. and non-i. i. d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

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UAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Parity calibration

Youngseog Chung
Aaron Rumack
Chirag Gupta

In a sequential regression setting, a decision-maker may be primarily concerned with whether the future observation will increase or decrease compared to the current one, rather than the actual value of the future observation. In this context, we introduce the notion of parity calibration, which captures the goal of calibrated forecasting for the increase-decrease (or “parity") event in a timeseries. Parity probabilities can be extracted from a forecasted distribution for the output, but we show that such a strategy leads to theoretical unpredictability and poor practical performance. We then observe that although the original task was regression, parity calibration can be expressed as binary calibration. Drawing on this connection, we use an online binary calibration method to achieve parity calibration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on real-world case studies in epidemiology, weather forecasting, and model-based control in nuclear fusion.

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ICLR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Top-label calibration and multiclass-to-binary reductions

Chirag Gupta
Aaditya Ramdas

We propose a new notion of multiclass calibration called top-label calibration. A classifier is said to be top-label calibrated if the reported probability for the predicted class label---the top-label---is calibrated, conditioned on the top-label. This conditioning is essential for practical utility of the calibration property, since the top-label is always reported and we must condition on what is reported. However, the popular notion of confidence calibration erroneously skips this conditioning. Furthermore, we outline a multiclass-to-binary (M2B) reduction framework that unifies confidence, top-label, and class-wise calibration, among others. As its name suggests, M2B works by reducing multiclass calibration to different binary calibration problems; various types of multiclass calibration can then be achieved using simple binary calibration routines. We instantiate the M2B framework with the well-studied histogram binning (HB) binary calibrator, and prove that the overall procedure is multiclass calibrated without making any assumptions on the underlying data distribution. In an empirical evaluation with four deep net architectures on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, we find that the M2B + HB procedure achieves lower top-label and class-wise calibration error than other approaches such as temperature scaling. Code for this work is available at https://github.com/aigen/df-posthoc-calibration.

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ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Distribution-Free Calibration Guarantees for Histogram Binning without Sample Splitting

Chirag Gupta
Aaditya Ramdas

We prove calibration guarantees for the popular histogram binning (also called uniform-mass binning) method of Zadrozny and Elkan (2001). Histogram binning has displayed strong practical performance, but theoretical guarantees have only been shown for sample split versions that avoid ’double dipping’ the data. We demonstrate that the statistical cost of sample splitting is practically significant on a credit default dataset. We then prove calibration guarantees for the original method that double dips the data, using a certain Markov property of order statistics. Based on our results, we make practical recommendations for choosing the number of bins in histogram binning. In our illustrative simulations, we propose a new tool for assessing calibration—validity plots—which provide more information than an ECE estimate.

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JMLR Journal 2021 Journal Article

Path Length Bounds for Gradient Descent and Flow

Chirag Gupta
Sivaraman Balakrishnan
Aaditya Ramdas

We derive bounds on the path length $\zeta$ of gradient descent (GD) and gradient flow (GF) curves for various classes of smooth convex and nonconvex functions. Among other results, we prove that: (a) if the iterates are linearly convergent with factor $(1-c)$, then $\zeta$ is at most $\mathcal{O}(1/c)$; (b) under the Polyak-Kurdyka-\L ojasiewicz (PKL) condition, $\zeta$ is at most $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\kappa})$, where $\kappa$ is the condition number, and at least $\widetilde\Omega(\sqrt{d} \wedge \kappa^{1/4})$; (c) for quadratics, $\zeta$ is $\Theta(\min\{\sqrt{d},\sqrt{\log \kappa}\})$ and in some cases can be independent of $\kappa$; (d) assuming just convexity, $\zeta$ can be at most $2^{4d\log d}$; (e) for separable quasiconvex functions, $\zeta$ is ${\Theta}(\sqrt{d})$. Thus, we advance current understanding of the properties of GD and GF curves beyond rates of convergence. We expect our techniques to facilitate future studies for other algorithms. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ blog ] &copy JMLR 2021. ( edit, beta )

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Distribution-free binary classification: prediction sets, confidence intervals and calibration

Chirag Gupta
Aleksandr Podkopaev
Aaditya Ramdas

We study three notions of uncertainty quantification---calibration, confidence intervals and prediction sets---for binary classification in the distribution-free setting, that is without making any distributional assumptions on the data. With a focus towards calibration, we establish a 'tripod' of theorems that connect these three notions for score-based classifiers. A direct implication is that distribution-free calibration is only possible, even asymptotically, using a scoring function whose level sets partition the feature space into at most countably many sets. Parametric calibration schemes such as variants of Platt scaling do not satisfy this requirement, while nonparametric schemes based on binning do. To close the loop, we derive distribution-free confidence intervals for binned probabilities for both fixed-width and uniform-mass binning. As a consequence of our 'tripod' theorems, these confidence intervals for binned probabilities lead to distribution-free calibration. We also derive extensions to settings with streaming data and covariate shift.

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NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Support Recovery for Orthogonal Matching Pursuit: Upper and Lower bounds

Raghav Somani
Chirag Gupta
Prateek Jain
Praneeth Netrapalli

This paper studies the problem of sparse regression where the goal is to learn a sparse vector that best optimizes a given objective function. Under the assumption that the objective function satisfies restricted strong convexity (RSC), we analyze orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP), a greedy algorithm that is used heavily in applications, and obtain support recovery result as well as a tight generalization error bound for OMP. Furthermore, we obtain lower bounds for OMP, showing that both our results on support recovery and generalization error are tight up to logarithmic factors. To the best of our knowledge, these support recovery and generalization bounds are the first such matching upper and lower bounds (up to logarithmic factors) for {\em any} sparse regression algorithm under the RSC assumption.

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ICML Conference 2017 Conference Paper

ProtoNN: Compressed and Accurate kNN for Resource-scarce Devices

Chirag Gupta
Arun Sai Suggala
Ankit Goyal
Harsha Vardhan Simhadri
Bhargavi Paranjape
Ashish Kumar 0007
Saurabh Goyal
Raghavendra Udupa

Several real-world applications require real-time prediction on resource-scarce devices such as an Internet of Things (IoT) sensor. Such applications demand prediction models with small storage and computational complexity that do not compromise significantly on accuracy. In this work, we propose ProtoNN, a novel algorithm that addresses the problem of real-time and accurate prediction on resource-scarce devices. ProtoNN is inspired by k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) but has several orders lower storage and prediction complexity. ProtoNN models can be deployed even on devices with puny storage and computational power (e. g. an Arduino UNO with 2kB RAM) to get excellent prediction accuracy. ProtoNN derives its strength from three key ideas: a) learning a small number of prototypes to represent the entire training set, b) sparse low dimensional projection of data, c) joint discriminative learning of the projection and prototypes with explicit model size constraint. We conduct systematic empirical evaluation of ProtoNN on a variety of supervised learning tasks (binary, multi-class, multi-label classification) and show that it gives nearly state-of-the-art prediction accuracy on resource-scarce devices while consuming several orders lower storage, and using minimal working memory.

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