EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A lightweight residual-driven spatiotemporal prediction model for the global critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer
- Chengsong Duan
- Jian Wang
- Cheng Yang
Accurate prediction of the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer (foE) is of great significance for radio communication and space weather forecasting. To better capture the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of foE and improve the prediction accuracy in short- and medium-term applications, this study proposes a lightweight residual-driven spatiotemporal prediction model that integrates the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) model with observations. The proposed model has the following features: (1) it integrates global, multi-source, heterogeneous ionospheric observations to support model training; (2) it adopts a residual modeling strategy to learn the systematic deviations between observations and ITU predictions; (3) it introduces a Long Short-Term Memory-Multilayer Perceptron (LSTM-MLP) network, which retains the temporal modeling capability of LSTM while leveraging MLP to enhance nonlinear feature learning, thereby enabling synchronous prediction across global stations. Results show that the proposed model outperforms the ITU and LSTM models by 33. 60% and 22. 43%, respectively, achieving superior prediction accuracy, adaptability, and stable generalization across both temporal and spatial evaluations. Moreover, the model completes a global prediction in only 30. 73 s, achieving a 98. 20% efficiency gain over the traditional single-station modeling strategy, while maintaining a parameter scale of just over one million. This high accuracy, high computational efficiency and lightweight design can offer strong support for the stable operation of global radio systems using low ionosphere.