EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A real-time traffic-load-driven framework for asphalt pavement maintenance timing
- Chang Xu
- Qingwei Zeng
- Wenxuan Zhang
- Haoyang Li
- Shunxin Yang
Traditional pavement management systems have historically relied on annual data for predictive modeling, resulting in discontinuous predictions that only support performance evaluations at fixed yearly intervals. While conventional age-based deterioration models can provide continuous predictions, their accuracy at non-integer ages remains constrained due to exclusive dependence on integer-age historical data. Recognizing that traffic loads directly impact pavement damage and the wide distribution of equivalent single axle load (ESAL) data corresponding to each year's performance, this study developed a performance deterioration model using cumulative ESAL as the independent variable to enhance prediction accuracy. Validation through three comprehensive case studies from Shanxi Province demonstrated the model's consistent superiority over traditional age-based approaches. Additionally, this study established a high-precision daily ESAL prediction model which couples Informer, a deep learning model for long-sequence forecasting, with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) designed to correct the Informer's predictive residuals, achieving an exceptional mean coefficient of determination (R2) of 0. 87. By synergistically coupling the Informer-ANN ESAL predictor with the cumulative ESAL-based performance model, this study proposed an automated maintenance timing framework that enables dynamic and accurate maintenance scheduling. Experimental validation revealed that this integrated framework reduces the mean maintenance timing prediction error to just 9. 35 % (approximately 37 days), dramatically outperforming conventional age-based models which exhibited an error of 88. 85 % (353 days). The proposed framework additionally supports continuous real-time updates using streaming ESAL data, providing transportation agencies with an intelligent, adaptive, and highly accurate decision-support tool for optimized asphalt pavement maintenance management.