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Carolina Osorio

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

BO4Mob: Bayesian Optimization Benchmarks for High-Dimensional Urban Mobility Problem

Seunghee Ryu
Donghoon Kwon
Seongjin Choi
Aryan Deshwal
Seungmo Kang
Carolina Osorio

We introduce BO4Mob, a new benchmark framework for high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization (BO), driven by the challenge of origin-destination (OD) travel demand estimation in large urban road networks. Estimating OD travel demand from limited traffic sensor data is a difficult inverse optimization problem, particularly in real-world, large-scale transportation networks. This problem involves optimizing over high-dimensional continuous spaces where each objective evaluation is computationally expensive, stochastic, and non-differentiable. BO4Mob comprises five scenarios based on real-world San Jose, CA road networks, with input dimensions scaling up to 10, 100. These scenarios utilize high-resolution, open-source traffic simulations that incorporate realistic nonlinear and stochastic dynamics. We demonstrate the benchmark's utility by evaluating five optimization methods: three state-of-the-art BO algorithms and two non-BO baselines. This benchmark is designed to support both the development of scalable optimization algorithms and their application for the design of data-driven urban mobility models, including high-resolution digital twins of metropolitan road networks. Code and documentation are available at https: //github. com/UMN-Choi-Lab/BO4Mob.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Active Sequential Posterior Estimation for Sample-Efficient Simulation-Based Inference

Sam Griesemer
Defu Cao
Zijun Cui
Carolina Osorio
Yan Liu

Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under simulation models. This has led to the rise of simulation-based inference (SBI), a class of machine learning-enabled techniques for approaching inverse problems with stochastic simulators. Many such methods, however, require large numbers of simulation samples and face difficulty scaling to high-dimensional settings, often making inference prohibitive under resource-intensive simulators. To mitigate these drawbacks, we introduce active sequential neural posterior estimation (ASNPE). ASNPE brings an active learning scheme into the inference loop to estimate the utility of simulation parameter candidates to the underlying probabilistic model. The proposed acquisition scheme is easily integrated into existing posterior estimation pipelines, allowing for improved sample efficiency with low computational overhead. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the travel demand calibration setting, a high-dimensional inverse problem commonly requiring computationally expensive traffic simulators. Our method outperforms well-tuned benchmarks and state-of-the-art posterior estimation methods on a large-scale real-world traffic network, as well as demonstrates a performance advantage over non-active counterparts on a suite of SBI benchmark environments.

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