Arrow Research search

Author name cluster

Benjamin Irwin

Possible papers associated with this exact author name in Arrow. This page groups case-insensitive exact name matches and is not a full identity disambiguation profile.

2 papers
1 author row

Possible papers

2

AAMAS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Argumentative Forecasting

  • Benjamin Irwin
  • Antonio Rago
  • Francesca Toni

We introduce the Forecasting Argumentation Framework (FAF), a novel argumentation framework for forecasting informed by recent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frameworks which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over time with and about probability of scenarios, whilst flagging perceived irrationality in their behaviour with a view to improving their forecasting accuracy. FAFs include three argument types with future forecasts and aggregate the strength of these arguments to inform estimates of the likelihood of scenarios. We describe an implementation of FAFs for supporting forecasting agents.

PDF

KR Conference 2022 System Paper

Forecasting Argumentation Frameworks

  • Benjamin Irwin
  • Antonio Rago
  • Francesca Toni

We introduce Forecasting Argumentation Frameworks (FAFs), a novel argumentation-based methodology for forecasting informed by recent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frameworks which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over time about the probability of outcomes, e. g. the winner of an election or a fluctuation in inflation rates, whilst flagging perceived irrationality in the agents' behaviour with a view to improving their forecasting accuracy. FAFs include five argument types, amounting to standard pro/con arguments, as in bipolar argumentation, as well as novel proposal arguments and increase/decrease amendment arguments. We adapt an existing gradual semantics for bipolar argumentation to determine the aggregated dialectical strength of proposal arguments and define irrational behaviour. We then give a simple aggregation function which produces a final group forecast from rational agents' individual forecasts. We identify and study properties of FAFs, and conduct an empirical evaluation which signals FAFs' potential to increase the forecasting accuracy of participants.

PDF Details DOI
v2026.09.13