B. Aditya Prakash

UAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

DF 2: Distribution-Free Decision-Focused Learning

• Lingkai Kong
• Wenhao Mu
• Jiaming Cui
• Yuchen Zhuang
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Bo Dai 0001
• Chao Zhang 0014

Decision-focused learning (DFL), which differentiates through the KKT conditions, has recently emerged as a powerful approach for predict-then-optimize problems. However, under probabilistic settings, DFL faces three major bottlenecks: model mismatch error, sample average approximation error, and gradient approximation error. Model mismatch error stems from the misalignment between the model’s parameterized predictive distribution and the true probability distribution. Sample average approximation error arises when using finite samples to approximate the expected optimization objective. Gradient approximation error occurs when the objectives are non-convex and KKT conditions cannot be directly applied. In this paper, we present DF$^2$-the first \textit{distribution-free} decision-focused learning method designed to mitigate these three bottlenecks. Rather than depending on a task-specific forecaster that requires precise model assumptions, our method directly learns the expected optimization function during training. To efficiently learn the function in a data-driven manner, we devise an attention-based model architecture inspired by the distribution-based parameterization of the expected objective. We evaluate DF$^2$ on two synthetic problems and three real-world problems, demonstrating the effectiveness of DF$^2$. Our code can be found at: https: //github. com/Lingkai-Kong/DF2.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

EARTH: Epidemiology-Aware Neural ODE with Continuous Disease Transmission Graph

• Guancheng Wan
• Zewen Liu 0005
• Xiaojun Shan
• Max S. Y. Lau
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Wei Jin 0009

Effective epidemic forecasting is critical for public health strategies and efficient medical resource allocation, especially in the face of rapidly spreading infectious diseases. However, existing deep-learning methods often overlook the dynamic nature of epidemics and fail to account for the specific mechanisms of disease transmission. In response to these challenges, we introduce an innovative end-to-end framework called Epidemiology-Aware Neural ODE with Continuous Disease Transmission Graph (EARTH) in this paper. To learn continuous and regional disease transmission patterns, we first propose EANO, which seamlessly integrates the neural ODE approach with the epidemic mechanism, considering the complex spatial spread process during epidemic evolution. Additionally, we introduce GLTG to model global infection trends and leverage these signals to guide local transmission dynamically. To accommodate both the global coherence of epidemic trends and the local nuances of epidemic transmission patterns, we build a cross-attention approach to fuse the most meaningful information for forecasting. Through the smooth synergy of both components, EARTH offers a more robust and flexible approach to understanding and predicting the spread of infectious diseases. Extensive experiments show EARTH superior performance in forecasting real-world epidemics compared to state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https: //github. com/GuanchengWan/EARTH.

IJCAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Reduction: Sparsification, Coarsening, and Condensation

• Mohammad Hashemi
• Shengbo Gong
• Juntong Ni
• Wenqi Fan
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Wei Jin

Many real-world datasets can be naturally represented as graphs, spanning a wide range of domains. However, the increasing complexity and size of graph datasets present significant challenges for analysis and computation. In response, graph reduction techniques have gained prominence for simplifying large graphs while preserving essential properties. In this survey, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of graph reduction methods, including graph sparsification, graph coarsening, and graph condensation. Specifically, we establish a unified definition for these methods and introduce a hierarchical taxonomy to categorize the challenges they address. Our survey then systematically reviews the technical details of these methods and emphasizes their practical applications across diverse scenarios. Furthermore, we outline critical research directions to ensure the continued effectiveness of graph reduction techniques.

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

PINNsFormer: A Transformer-Based Framework For Physics-Informed Neural Networks

• Leo Zhiyuan Zhao
• Xueying Ding
• B. Aditya Prakash

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a promising deep learning framework for approximating numerical solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs). However, conventional PINNs, relying on multilayer perceptrons (MLP), neglect the crucial temporal dependencies inherent in practical physics systems and thus fail to propagate the initial condition constraints globally and accurately capture the true solutions under various scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel Transformer-based framework, termed PINNsFormer, designed to address this limitation. PINNsFormer can accurately approximate PDE solutions by utilizing multi-head attention mechanisms to capture temporal dependencies. PINNsFormer transforms point-wise inputs into pseudo sequences and replaces point-wise PINNs loss with a sequential loss. Additionally, it incorporates a novel activation function, \texttt{Wavelet}, which anticipates Fourier decomposition through deep neural networks. Empirical results demonstrate that PINNsFormer achieves superior generalization ability and accuracy across various scenarios, including PINNs failure modes and high-dimensional PDEs. Moreover, PINNsFormer offers flexibility in integrating existing learning schemes for PINNs, further enhancing its performance.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Time-Series Forecasting for Out-of-Distribution Generalization Using Invariant Learning

• Haoxin Liu 0001
• Harshavardhan Kamarthi
• Lingkai Kong
• Zhiyuan Zhao 0002
• Chao Zhang 0014
• B. Aditya Prakash

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial for TSF models to preserve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as training and test sets represent historical and future data respectively. In this paper, we aim to alleviate the inherent OOD problem in TSF via invariant learning. We identify fundamental challenges of invariant learning for TSF. First, the target variables in TSF may not be sufficiently determined by the input due to unobserved core variables in TSF, breaking the fundamental assumption of invariant learning. Second, time-series datasets lack adequate environment labels, while existing environmental inference methods are not suitable for TSF. To address these challenges, we propose FOIL, a model-agnostic framework that endows time-series forecasting for out-of-distribution generalization via invariant learning. Specifically, FOIL employs a novel surrogate loss to mitigate the impact of unobserved variables. Further, FOIL implements joint optimization by alternately inferring environments effectively with a multi-head network while preserving the temporal adjacency structure and learning invariant representations across inferred environments for OOD generalized TSF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed FOIL significantly and consistently improves the performance of various TSF models, achieving gains of up to 85%.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Autoregressive Diffusion Model for Graph Generation

• Lingkai Kong
• Jiaming Cui
• Haotian Sun
• Yuchen Zhuang
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Chao Zhang 0014

Diffusion-based graph generative models have recently obtained promising results for graph generation. However, existing diffusion-based graph generative models are mostly one-shot generative models that apply Gaussian diffusion in the dequantized adjacency matrix space. Such a strategy can suffer from difficulty in model training, slow sampling speed, and incapability of incorporating constraints. We propose an autoregressive diffusion model for graph generation. Unlike existing methods, we define a node-absorbing diffusion process that operates directly in the discrete graph space. For forward diffusion, we design a diffusion ordering network, which learns a data-dependent node absorbing ordering from graph topology. For reverse generation, we design a denoising network that uses the reverse node ordering to efficiently reconstruct the graph by predicting the node type of the new node and its edges with previously denoised nodes at a time. Based on the permutation invariance of graph, we show that the two networks can be jointly trained by optimizing a simple lower bound of data likelihood. Our experiments on six diverse generic graph datasets and two molecule datasets show that our model achieves better or comparable generation performance with previous state-of-the-art, and meanwhile enjoys fast generation speed.

AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Detecting Sources of Healthcare Associated Infections

• Hankyu Jang
• Andrew Fu
• Jiaming Cui
• Methun Kamruzzaman
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Anil Vullikanti
• Bijaya Adhikari
• Sriram V. Pemmaraju

Healthcare acquired infections (HAIs) (e.g., Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection) have complex transmission pathways, spreading not just via direct person-to-person contacts, but also via contaminated surfaces. Prior work in mathematical epidemiology has led to a class of models – which we call load sharing models – that provide a discrete-time, stochastic formalization of HAI-spread on temporal contact networks. The focus of this paper is the source detection problem for the load sharing model. The source detection problem has been studied extensively in SEIR type models, but this prior work does not apply to load sharing models. We show that a natural formulation of the source detection problem for the load sharing model is computationally hard, even to approximate. We then present two alternate formulations that are much more tractable. The tractability of our problems depends crucially on the submodularity of the expected number of infections as a function of the source set. Prior techniques for showing submodularity, such as the "live graph" technique are not applicable for the load sharing model and our key technical contribution is to use a more sophisticated "coupling" technique to show the submodularity result. We propose algorithms for our two problem formulations by extending existing algorithmic results from submodular optimization and combining these with an expectation propagation heuristic for the load sharing model that leads to orders-of-magnitude speedup. We present experimental results on temporal contact networks based on fine-grained EMR data from three different hospitals. Our results on synthetic outbreaks on these networks show that our algorithms outperform baselines by up to 5.97 times. Furthermore, case studies based on hospital outbreaks of Clostridioides difficile infection show that our algorithms identify clinically meaningful sources.

AAMAS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Differentiable Agent-based Epidemiology

• Ayush Chopra
• Alexander Rodríguez
• Jayakumar Subramanian
• Arnau Quera-Bofarull
• Balaji Krishnamurthy
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Ramesh Raskar

Mechanistic simulators are an indispensable tool for epidemiology to explore the behavior of complex, dynamic infections under varying conditions and navigate uncertain environments. Agent-based models (ABMs) are an increasingly popular simulation paradigm that can represent the heterogeneity of contact interactions with granular detail and agency of individual behavior. However, conventional ABM frameworks not differentiable and present challenges in scalability; due to which it is non-trivial to connect them to auxiliary data sources. In this paper, we introduce GradABM: a scalable, differentiable design for agent-based modeling that is amenable to gradient-based learning with automatic differentiation. GradABM can quickly simulate million-size populations in few seconds on commodity hardware, integrate with deep neural networks and ingest heterogeneous data sources. This provides an array of practical benefits for calibration, forecasting, and evaluating policy interventions. We demonstrate the efficacy of GradABM via extensive experiments with real COVID-19 and influenza datasets.

AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

EINNs: Epidemiologically-Informed Neural Networks

• Alexander Rodríguez
• Jiaming Cui
• Naren Ramakrishnan
• Bijaya Adhikari
• B. Aditya Prakash

We introduce EINNs, a framework crafted for epidemic forecasting that builds upon the theoretical grounds provided by mechanistic models as well as the data-driven expressibility afforded by AI models, and their capabilities to ingest heterogeneous information. Although neural forecasting models have been successful in multiple tasks, predictions well-correlated with epidemic trends and long-term predictions remain open challenges. Epidemiological ODE models contain mechanisms that can guide us in these two tasks; however, they have limited capability of ingesting data sources and modeling composite signals. Thus, we propose to leverage work in physics-informed neural networks to learn latent epidemic dynamics and transfer relevant knowledge to another neural network which ingests multiple data sources and has more appropriate inductive bias. In contrast with previous work, we do not assume the observability of complete dynamics and do not need to numerically solve the ODE equations during training. Our thorough experiments on all US states and HHS regions for COVID-19 and influenza forecasting showcase the clear benefits of our approach in both short-term and long-term forecasting as well as in learning the mechanistic dynamics over other non-trivial alternatives.

ICLR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Back2Future: Leveraging Backfill Dynamics for Improving Real-time Predictions in Future

• Harshavardhan Kamarthi
• Alexander Rodríguez
• B. Aditya Prakash

For real-time forecasting in domains like public health and macroeconomics, data collection is a non-trivial and demanding task. Often after being initially released, it undergoes several revisions later (maybe due to human or technical constraints) - as a result, it may take weeks until the data reaches a stable value. This so-called ‘backfill’ phenomenon and its effect on model performance have been barely addressed in the prior literature. In this paper, we introduce the multi-variate backfill problem using COVID-19 as the motivating example. We construct a detailed dataset composed of relevant signals over the past year of the pandemic. We then systematically characterize several patterns in backfill dynamics and leverage our observations for formulating a novel problem and neural framework, Back2Future, that aims to refines a given model's predictions in real-time. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that our method refines the performance of the diverse set of top models for COVID-19 forecasting and GDP growth forecasting. Specifically, we show that Back2Future refined top COVID-19 models by 6.65% to 11.24% and yield an 18% improvement over non-trivial baselines. In addition, we show that our model improves model evaluation too; hence policy-makers can better understand the true accuracy of forecasting models in real-time.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

End-to-end Stochastic Optimization with Energy-based Model

• Lingkai Kong
• Jiaming Cui
• Yuchen Zhuang
• Rui Feng
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Chao Zhang

Decision-focused learning (DFL) was recently proposed for stochastic optimization problems that involve unknown parameters. By integrating predictive modeling with an implicitly differentiable optimization layer, DFL has shown superior performance to the standard two-stage predict-then-optimize pipeline. However, most existing DFL methods are only applicable to convex problems or a subset of nonconvex problems that can be easily relaxed to convex ones. Further, they can be inefficient in training due to the requirement of solving and differentiating through the optimization problem in every training iteration. We propose SO-EBM, a general and efficient DFL method for stochastic optimization using energy-based models. Instead of relying on KKT conditions to induce an implicit optimization layer, SO-EBM explicitly parameterizes the original optimization problem using a differentiable optimization layer based on energy functions. To better approximate the optimization landscape, we propose a coupled training objective that uses a maximum likelihood loss to capture the optimum location and a distribution-based regularizer to capture the overall energy landscape. Finally, we propose an efficient training procedure for SO-EBM with a self-normalized importance sampler based on a Gaussian mixture proposal. We evaluate SO-EBM in three applications: power scheduling, COVID-19 resource allocation, and non-convex adversarial security game, demonstrating the effectiveness and efficiency of SO-EBM.

AAAI Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Provable Sensor Sets for Epidemic Detection over Networks with Minimum Delay

• Jack Heavey
• Jiaming Cui
• Chen Chen
• B. Aditya Prakash
• Anil Vullikanti

The efficient detection of outbreaks and other cascading phenomena is a fundamental problem in a number of domains, including disease spread, social networks, and infrastructure networks. In such settings, monitoring and testing a small group of pre-selected nodes from the susceptible population (i. e. , a sensor set) is often the preferred testing regime. We study the problem of selecting a sensor set that minimizes the delay in detection—we refer to this as the MinDelSS problem. Prior methods for minimizing the detection time rely on greedy algorithms using submodularity. We show that this approach can sometimes lead to a worse approximation for minimizing the detection time than desired. We also show that MinDelSS is hard to approximate within an O(n1−1/γ )factor for any constant γ ≥ 2 for a graph with n nodes. This instead motivates seeking a bicriteria approximations. We present the algorithm ROUNDSENSOR, which gives a rigorous worst case O(log n)-factor for the detection time, while violating the budget by a factor of O(log2 n). Our algorithm is based on the sample average approximation technique from stochastic optimization, combined with linear programming and rounding. We evaluate our algorithm on several networks, including hospital contact networks, which validates its effectiveness in real settings.

AAAI Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19

• Alexander Rodríguez
• Nikhil Muralidhar
• Bijaya Adhikari
• Anika Tabassum
• Naren Ramakrishnan
• B. Aditya Prakash

Forecasting influenza in a timely manner aids health organizations and policymakers in adequate preparation and decision making. However, effective influenza forecasting still remains a challenge despite increasing research interest. It is even more challenging amidst the COVID pandemic, when the influenza-like illness (ILI) counts are affected by various factors such as symptomatic similarities with COVID-19 and shift in healthcare seeking patterns of the general population. Under the current pandemic, historical influenza models carry valuable expertise about the disease dynamics but face difficulties adapting. Therefore, we propose CALI-NET, a neural transfer learning architecture which allows us to ’steer’ a historical disease forecasting model to new scenarios where flu and COVID co-exist. Our framework enables this adaptation by automatically learning when it should emphasize learning from COVID-related signals and when it should learn from the historical model. Thus, we exploit representations learned from historical ILI data as well as the limited COVID-related signals. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach is successful in adapting a historical forecasting model to the current pandemic. In addition, we show that success in our primary goal, adaptation, does not sacrifice overall performance as compared with state-of-the-art influenza forecasting approaches.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

When in Doubt: Neural Non-Parametric Uncertainty Quantification for Epidemic Forecasting

• Harshavardhan Kamarthi
• Lingkai Kong
• Alexander Rodriguez
• Chao Zhang
• B. Aditya Prakash

Accurate and trustworthy epidemic forecasting is an important problem for public health planning and disease mitigation. Most existing epidemic forecasting models disregard uncertainty quantification, resulting in mis-calibrated predictions. Recent works in deep neural models for uncertainty-aware time-series forecasting also have several limitations; e. g. , it is difficult to specify proper priors in Bayesian NNs, while methods like deep ensembling can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose to use neural functional processes to fill this gap. We model epidemic time-series with a probabilistic generative process and propose a functional neural process model called EpiFNP, which directly models the probability distribution of the forecast value in a non-parametric way. In EpiFNP, we use a dynamic stochastic correlation graph to model the correlations between sequences, and design different stochastic latent variables to capture functional uncertainty from different perspectives. Our experiments in a real-time flu forecasting setting show that EpiFNP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models in both accuracy and calibration metrics, up to 2. 5x in accuracy and 2. 4x in calibration. Additionally, as EpiFNP learns the relations between the current season and similar patterns of historical seasons, it enables interpretable forecasts. Beyond epidemic forecasting, EpiFNP can be of independent interest for advancing uncertainty quantification in deep sequential models for predictive analytics.

TIST Journal 2020 Journal Article

Cut-n-Reveal

• Nikhil Muralidhar
• Anika Tabassum
• Liangzhe Chen
• Supriya Chinthavali
• Naren Ramakrishnan
• B. Aditya Prakash

Recent hurricane events have caused unprecedented amounts of damage on critical infrastructure systems and have severely threatened our public safety and economic health. The most observable (and severe) impact of these hurricanes is the loss of electric power in many regions, which causes breakdowns in essential public services. Understanding power outages and how they evolve during a hurricane provides insights on how to reduce outages in the future, and how to improve the robustness of the underlying critical infrastructure systems. In this article, we propose a novel scalable segmentation with explanations framework to help experts understand such datasets. Our method, CnR (Cut-n-Reveal), first finds a segmentation of the outage sequences based on the temporal variations of the power outage failure process so as to capture major pattern changes. This temporal segmentation procedure is capable of accounting for both the spatial and temporal correlations of the underlying power outage process. We then propose a novel explanation optimization formulation to find an intuitive explanation of the segmentation such that the explanation highlights the culprit time series of the change in each segment. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method consistently outperforms competitors in multiple real datasets with ground truth. We further study real county-level power outage data from several recent hurricanes (Matthew, Harvey, Irma) and show that CnR recovers important, non-trivial, and actionable patterns for domain experts, whereas baselines typically do not give meaningful results.

AAAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Automatic Segmentation of Data Sequences

• Liangzhe Chen
• Sorour E. Amiri
• B. Aditya Prakash

Segmenting temporal data sequences is an important problem which helps in understanding data dynamics in multiple applications such as epidemic surveillance, motion capture sequences, etc. In this paper, we give DASSA, the first self-guided and efficient algorithm to automatically find a segmentation that best detects the change of pattern in data sequences. To avoid introducing tuning parameters, we design DASSA to be a multi-level method which examines segments at each level of granularity via a compact data structure called the segment-graph. We build this data structure by carefully leveraging the information bottleneck method with the MDL principle to effectively represent each segment. Next, DASSA efficiently finds the optimal segmentation via a novel average-longest-path optimization on the segmentgraph. Finally we show how the outputs from DASSA can be naturally interpreted to reveal meaningful patterns. We ran DASSA on multiple real datasets of varying sizes and it is very effective in finding the time-cut points of the segmentations (in some cases recovering the cut points perfectly) as well as in finding the corresponding changing patterns.

TIST Journal 2017 Journal Article

Understanding the Relationship between Human Behavior and Susceptibility to Cyber Attacks

• Michael Ovelgönne
• Tudor Dumitraş
• B. Aditya Prakash
• V. S. Subrahmanian
• Benjamin Wang

Despite growing speculation about the role of human behavior in cyber-security of machines, concrete data-driven analysis and evidence have been lacking. Using Symantec’s WINE platform, we conduct a detailed study of 1.6 million machines over an 8-month period in order to learn the relationship between user behavior and cyber attacks against their personal computers. We classify users into 4 categories (gamers, professionals, software developers, and others, plus a fifth category comprising everyone) and identify a total of 7 features that act as proxies for human behavior. For each of the 35 possible combinations (5 categories times 7 features), we studied the relationship between each of these seven features and one dependent variable, namely the number of attempted malware attacks detected by Symantec on the machine. Our results show that there is a strong relationship between several features and the number of attempted malware attacks. Had these hosts not been protected by Symantec’s anti-virus product or a similar product, they would likely have been infected. Surprisingly, our results show that software developers are more at risk of engaging in risky cyber-behavior than other categories.

IS Journal 2016 Journal Article

Prediction Using Propagation: From Flu Trends to Cybersecurity

• B. Aditya Prakash

This article discusses two applications of propagation-based concepts for predictive analytics: marrying epidemiological models with statistical topic models to tease out user phases for better flu-trends prediction, and using propagation-based models to generatively model estimates of malware attacks.

ICML Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Time Series Clustering: Complex is Simpler!

• Lei Li 0005
• B. Aditya Prakash