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Asterios Tsiourvas

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4 papers

2 author rows

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Causal LLM Routing: End-to-End Regret Minimization from Observational Data

Asterios Tsiourvas
Wei Sun
Georgia Perakis

LLM routing aims to select the most appropriate model for each query, balancing competing performance metrics such as accuracy and cost across a pool of language models. Prior approaches typically adopt a decoupled strategy, where the metrics are first predicted and the model is then selected based on these estimates. This setup is prone to compounding errors and often relies on full-feedback data, where each query is evaluated by all candidate models, which is costly to obtain and maintain in practice. In contrast, we learn from observational data, which records only the outcome of the model actually deployed. We propose a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret from observational data. To enable efficient optimization, we introduce two theoretically grounded surrogate objectives: a classification-based upper bound, and a softmax-weighted regret approximation shown to recover the optimal policy at convergence. We further extend our framework to handle heterogeneous cost preferences via an interval-conditioned architecture. Experiments on public benchmarks show that our method outperforms existing baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance across different embedding models.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Learning Optimal Projection for Forecast Reconciliation of Hierarchical Time Series

Asterios Tsiourvas
Wei Sun 0031
Georgia Perakis
Pin-Yu Chen
Yada Zhu

Hierarchical time series forecasting requires not only prediction accuracy but also coherency, i. e. , forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy. Recent literature has shown that reconciliation via projection outperforms prior methods such as top-down or bottom-up approaches. Unlike existing work that pre-specifies a projection matrix (e. g. , orthogonal), we study the problem of learning the optimal oblique projection from data for coherent forecasting of hierarchical time series. In addition to the unbiasedness-preserving property, oblique projection implicitly accounts for the hierarchy structure and assigns different weights to individual time series, providing significant adaptability over orthogonal projection which treats base forecast errors equally. We examine two broad classes of projections, namely Euclidean projection and general oblique projections. We propose to model the reconciliation step as a learnable, structured, projection layer in the neural forecaster architecture. The proposed approach allows for the efficient learning of the optimal projection in an end-to-end framework where both the neural forecaster and the projection layer are learned simultaneously. An empirical evaluation of real-world hierarchical time series datasets demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed method over existing state-of-the-art approaches.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Overcoming the Optimizer's Curse: Obtaining Realistic Prescriptions from Neural Networks

Asterios Tsiourvas
Georgia Perakis

We study the problem of obtaining optimal and realistic prescriptions when using ReLU networks for data-driven decision-making. In this setting, the network is used to predict a quantity of interest and then is optimized to retrieve the decisions that maximize the quantity (e. g. find the best prices that maximize revenue). However, optimizing over-parameterized models often produces unrealistic prescriptions, far from the data manifold. This phenomenon is known as the Optimizer’s Curse. To tackle this problem, we model the requirement for the resulting decisions to align with the data manifold as a tractable optimization constraint. This is achieved by reformulating the highly nonlinear Local Outlier Factor (LOF) metric as a single linear or quadratic constraint. To solve the problem efficiently for large networks, we propose an adaptive sampling algorithm that reduces the initial hard-to-solve optimization problem into a small number of significantly easier-to-solve problems by restricting the decision space to realistic polytopes, i. e. polytopes of the decision space that contain at least one realistic data point. Experiments on publicly available networks demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of our approach.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Learning Prescriptive ReLU Networks

Wei Sun
Asterios Tsiourvas

We study the problem of learning optimal policy from a set of discrete treatment options using observational data. We propose a piecewise linear neural network model that can balance strong prescriptive performance and interpretability, which we refer to as the prescriptive ReLU network, or P-ReLU. We show analytically that this model (i) partitions the input space into disjoint polyhedra, where all instances that belong to the same partition receive the same treatment, and (ii) can be converted into an equivalent prescriptive tree with hyperplane splits for interpretability. We demonstrate the flexibility of the P-ReLU network as constraints can be easily incorporated with minor modifications to the architecture. Through experiments, we validate the superior prescriptive accuracy of P-ReLU against competing benchmarks. Lastly, we present examples of prescriptive trees extracted from trained P-ReLUs using a real-world dataset, for both the unconstrained and constrained scenarios.

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