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Anna Koop

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6 papers
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6

AAMAS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Soft Condorcet Optimization for Ranking of General Agents

  • Marc Lanctot
  • Kate Larson
  • Michael Kaisers
  • Quentin Berthet
  • Ian Gemp
  • Manfred Diaz
  • Roberto-Rafael Maura-Rivero
  • Yoram Bachrach

Driving progress of AI models and agents requires comparing their performance on standardized benchmarks; for general agents, individual performances must be aggregated across a potentially wide variety of different tasks. In this paper, we describe a novel ranking scheme inspired by social choice frameworks, called Soft Condorcet Optimization (SCO), to compute the optimal ranking of agents: the one that makes the fewest mistakes in predicting the agent comparisons in the evaluation data. This optimal ranking is the maximum likelihood estimate when evaluation data (which we view as votes) are interpreted as noisy samples from a ground truth ranking, a solution to Condorcet’s original voting system criteria. SCO ratings are maximal for Condorcet winners when they exist, which we show is not necessarily true for the classical rating system Elo. We propose three optimization algorithms to compute SCO ratings and evaluate their empirical performance. When serving as an approximation to the Kemeny-Young voting method, SCO rankings are on average 0 to 0. 043 away from the optimal ranking in normalized Kendall-tau distance across 865 preference profiles from the PrefLib open ranking archive. In a simulated noisy tournament setting, SCO achieves accurate approximations to the ground truth ranking and the best among several baselines when 59% or more of the preference data is missing. Finally, SCO ranking provides the best approximation to the optimal ranking, measured on held-out test sets, in a problem containing 52, 958 human players across 31, 049 games of the classic seven-player game of Diplomacy.

NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

The Forget-me-not Process

  • Kieran Milan
  • Joel Veness
  • James Kirkpatrick
  • Michael Bowling
  • Anna Koop
  • Demis Hassabis

We introduce the Forget-me-not Process, an efficient, non-parametric meta-algorithm for online probabilistic sequence prediction for piecewise stationary, repeating sources. Our method works by taking a Bayesian approach to partition a stream of data into postulated task-specific segments, while simultaneously building a model for each task. We provide regret guarantees with respect to piecewise stationary data sources under the logarithmic loss, and validate the method empirically across a range of sequence prediction and task identification problems.

IJCAI Conference 2007 Conference Paper

  • Brian Tanner
  • Vadim Bulitko
  • Anna Koop
  • Cosmin Paduraru

This paper proposes a systematic approach of representing abstract features in terms of low-level, subjective state representations. We demonstrate that a mapping between the agent's predictive state representation and an abstract feature representation can be derived automatically from high-level training data supplied by the designer. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that an experience-oriented state representation built around a single-bit sensor can represent useful abstract features such as "back against a wall, " "in a corner, " or "in a room". As a result, the agent gains virtual sensors that could be used by its control policy.

NeurIPS Conference 2005 Conference Paper

Off-policy Learning with Options and Recognizers

  • Doina Precup
  • Cosmin Paduraru
  • Anna Koop
  • Richard Sutton
  • Satinder Singh

We introduce a new algorithm for off-policy temporal-difference learning with function approximation that has lower variance and requires less knowledge of the behavior policy than prior methods. We develop the notion of a recognizer, a filter on actions that distorts the behavior policy to produce a related target policy with low-variance importance-sampling corrections. We also consider target policies that are deviations from the state distribution of the behavior policy, such as potential temporally abstract options, which further reduces variance. This paper introduces recognizers and their potential advantages, then develops a full algorithm for linear function approximation and proves that its updates are in the same direction as on-policy TD updates, which implies asymptotic convergence. Even though our algorithm is based on importance sampling, we prove that it requires absolutely no knowledge of the behavior policy for the case of state-aggregation function approximators. Off-policy learning is learning about one way of behaving while actually behaving in another way. For example, Q-learning is an off- policy learning method because it learns about the optimal policy while taking actions in a more exploratory fashion, e. g. , according to an -greedy policy. Off-policy learning is of interest because only one way of selecting actions can be used at any time, but we would like to learn about many different ways of behaving from the single resultant stream of experience. For example, the options framework for temporal abstraction involves considering a variety of different ways of selecting actions. For each such option one would like to learn a model of its possible outcomes suitable for planning and other uses. Such option models have been proposed as fundamental building blocks of grounded world knowledge (Sutton, Precup & Singh, 1999; Sutton, Rafols & Koop, 2005). Using off-policy learning, one would be able to learn predictive models for many options at the same time from a single stream of experience. Unfortunately, off-policy learning using temporal-difference methods has proven problematic when used in conjunction with function approximation. Function approximation is essential in order to handle the large state spaces that are inherent in many problem do- mains. Q-learning, for example, has been proven to converge to an optimal policy in the tabular case, but is unsound and may diverge in the case of linear function approximation (Baird, 1996). Precup, Sutton, and Dasgupta (2001) introduced and proved convergence for the first off-policy learning algorithm with linear function approximation. They addressed the problem of learning the expected value of a target policy based on experience generated using a different behavior policy. They used importance sampling techniques to reduce the off-policy case to the on-policy case, where existing convergence theorems apply (Tsitsiklis & Van Roy, 1997; Tadic, 2001). There are two important difficulties with that approach. First, the behavior policy needs to be stationary and known, because it is needed to compute the importance sampling corrections. Second, the importance sampling weights are often ill-conditioned. In the worst case, the variance could be infinite and convergence would not occur. The conditions required to prevent this were somewhat awkward and, even when they applied and asymptotic convergence was assured, the variance could still be high and convergence could be slow. In this paper we address both of these problems in the context of off-policy learning for options. We introduce the notion of a recognizer. Rather than specifying an explicit target policy (for instance, the policy of an option), about which we want to make predictions, a recognizer specifies a condition on the actions that are selected. For example, a recognizer for the temporally extended action of picking up a cup would not specify which hand is to be used, or what the motion should be at all different positions of the cup. The recognizer would recognize a whole variety of directions of motion and poses as part of picking the cup. The advantage of this strategy is not that one might prefer a multitude of different behaviors, but that the behavior may be based on a variety of different strategies, all of which are relevant, and we would like to learn from any of them. In general, a recognizer is a function that recognizes or accepts a space of different ways of behaving and thus, can learn from a wider range of data. Recognizers have two advantages over direct specification of a target policy: 1) they are a natural and easy way to specify a target policy for which importance sampling will be well conditioned, and 2) they do not require the behavior policy to be known. The latter is important because in many cases we may have little knowledge of the behavior policy, or a stationary behavior policy may not even exist. We show that for the case of state aggregation, even if the behavior policy is unknown, convergence to a good model is achieved. 1 Non-sequential example The benefits of using recognizers in off-policy learning can be most easily seen in a nonsequential context with a single continuous action. Suppose you are given a sequence of sample actions ai [0, 1], selected i. i. d. according to probability density b: [0, 1] + (the behavior density). For example, suppose the behavior density is of the oscillatory form shown as a red line in Figure 1. For each each action, ai, we observe a corresponding outcome, zi, a random variable whose distribution depends only on ai. Thus the behavior density induces an outcome density. The on-policy problem is to estimate the mean mb of the outcome density. This problem can be solved simply by averaging the sample outcomes: mb = (1/n) n=1 zi. The off-policy problem is to use this same data to learn what ^ i the mean would be if actions were selected in some way other than b, for example, if the actions were restricted to a designated range, such as between 0. 7 and 0. 9. There are two natural ways to pose this off-policy problem. The most straightforward way is to be equally interested in all actions within the designated region. One professes to be interested in actions selected according to a target density: [0, 1] +, which in the example would be 5. 0 between 0. 7 and 0. 9, and zero elsewhere, as in the dashed line in 12 Probability density functions Target policy with recognizer Target policy w/o recognizer 1. 5 Empirical variances (average of 200 sample variances) 1 without recognizer. 5 with recognizer 100 200 300 400 500

NeurIPS Conference 2005 Conference Paper

Temporal Abstraction in Temporal-difference Networks

  • Eddie Rafols
  • Anna Koop
  • Richard Sutton

We present a generalization of temporal-difference networks to include temporally abstract options on the links of the question network. Temporal-difference (TD) networks have been proposed as a way of representing and learning a wide variety of predictions about the interaction between an agent and its environment. These predictions are compositional in that their targets are defined in terms of other predictions, and subjunctive in that that they are about what would happen if an action or sequence of actions were taken. In conventional TD networks, the inter-related predictions are at successive time steps and contingent on a single action; here we generalize them to accommodate extended time intervals and contingency on whole ways of behaving. Our generalization is based on the options framework for temporal abstraction. The primary contribution of this paper is to introduce a new algorithm for intra-option learning in TD networks with function approximation and eligibility traces. We present empirical examples of our algorithm's effectiveness and of the greater representational expressiveness of temporallyabstract TD networks. The primary distinguishing feature of temporal-difference (TD) networks (Sutton & Tanner, 2005) is that they permit a general compositional specification of the goals of learning. The goals of learning are thought of as predictive questions being asked by the agent in the learning problem, such as "What will I see if I step forward and look right? " or "If I open the fridge, will I see a bottle of beer? " Seeing a bottle of beer is of course a complicated perceptual act. It might be thought of as obtaining a set of predictions about what would happen if certain reaching and grasping actions were taken, about what would happen if the bottle were opened and turned upside down, and of what the bottle would look like if viewed from various angles. To predict seeing a bottle of beer is thus to make a prediction about a set of other predictions. The target for the overall prediction is a composition in the mathematical sense of the first prediction with each of the other predictions. TD networks are the first framework for representing the goals of predictive learning in a compositional, machine-accessible form. Each node of a TD network represents an individual question--something to be predicted--and has associated with it a value representing an answer to the question--a prediction of that something. The questions are represented by a set of directed links between nodes. If node 1 is linked to node 2, then node 1 rep- resents a question incorporating node 2's question; its value is a prediction about node 2's prediction. Higher-level predictions can be composed in several ways from lower ones, producing a powerful, structured representation language for the targets of learning. The compositional structure is not just in a human designer's head; it is expressed in the links and thus is accessible to the agent and its learning algorithm. The network of these links is referred to as the question network. An entirely separate set of directed links between the nodes is used to compute the values (predictions, answers) associated with each node. These links collectively are referred to as the answer network. The computation in the answer network is compositional in a conventional way--node values are computed from other node values. The essential insight of TD networks is that the notion of compositionality should apply to questions as well as to answers. A secondary distinguishing feature of TD networks is that the predictions (node values) at each moment in time can be used as a representation of the state of the world at that time. In this way they are an instance of the idea of predictive state representations (PSRs) introduced by Littman, Sutton and Singh (2002), Jaeger (2000), and Rivest and Schapire (1987). Representing a state by its predictions is a potentially powerful strategy for state abstraction (Rafols et al. , 2005). We note that the questions used in all previous work with PSRs are defined in terms of concrete actions and observations, not other predictions. They are not compositional in the sense that TD-network questions are. The questions we have discussed so far are subjunctive, meaning that they are conditional on a certain way of behaving. We predict what we would see if we were to step forward and look right, or if we were to open the fridge. The questions in conventional TD networks are subjunctive, but they are conditional only on primitive actions or open-loop sequences of primitive actions (as are conventional PSRs). It is natural to generalize this, as we have in the informal examples above, to questions that are conditional on closed-loop temporally extended ways of behaving. For example, opening the fridge is a complex, high-level action. The arm must be lifted to the door, the hand shaped for grasping the handle, etc. To ask questions like "if I were to go to the coffee room, would I see John? " would require substantial temporal abstraction in addition to state abstraction. The options framework (Sutton, Precup & Singh, 1999) is a straightforward way of talking about temporally extended ways of behaving and about predictions of their outcomes. In this paper we extend the options framework so that it can be applied to TD networks. Significant extensions of the original options framework are needed. Novel features of our option-extended TD networks are that they 1) predict components of option outcomes rather than full outcome probability distributions, 2) learn according to the first intra-option method to use eligibility traces (see Sutton & Barto, 1998), and 3) include the possibility of options whose `policies' are indifferent to which of several actions are selected. 1 The options framework In this section we present the essential elements of the options framework (Sutton, Precup & Singh, 1999) that we will need for our extension of TD networks. In this framework, an agent and an environment interact at discrete time steps t = 1, 2, 3. .. . In each state st S, the agent selects an action at A, determining the next state st+1. 1 An action is a way of behaving for one time step; the options framework lets us talk about temporally extended ways of behaving. An individual option consists of three parts. The first is the initiation set, I S, the subset of states in which the option can be started. The second component of an option is its policy, : S A [0, 1], specifying how the agent behaves when 1 Although the options framework includes rewards, we omit them here because we are concerned only with prediction, not control. following the option. Finally, a termination function, : S A [0, 1], specifies how the option ends: (s) denotes the probability of terminating when in state s. The option is thus completely and formally defined by the 3-tuple (I, , ). 2 Conventional TD networks In this section we briefly present the details of the structure and the learning algorithm comprising TD networks as introduced by Sutton and Tanner (2005). TD networks address a prediction problem in which the agent may not have direct access to the state of the environment. Instead, at each time step the agent receives an observation ot O dependent on the state. The experience stream thus consists of a sequence of alternating actions and observations, o1, a1, o2, a2, o3. The TD network consists of a set of nodes, each representing a single scalar prediction, interlinked by the question and answer networks as suggested previously. For a network 1 n of n nodes, the vector of all predictions at time step t is denoted yt = (yt, .. ., yt )T. The predictions are estimates of the expected value of some scalar quantity, typically of a bit, in which case they can be interpreted as estimates of probabilities. The predictions are updated at each time step according to a vector-valued function u with modifiable parameter W, which is often taken to be of a linear form: yt = u(yt-1, at-1, ot, Wt ) = (Wt xt ), (1) where xt m is an m-vector of features created from (yt-1, at-1, ot ), Wt is an n m matrix (whose elements are sometimes referred to as weights), and is the n-vector form of either the identity function or the S-shaped logistic function (s) = 1+1 -s. The e feature vector is an arbitrary vector-valued function of yt-1, at-1, and ot. For example, in the simplest case the feature vector is a unit basis vector with the location of the one communicating the current state. In a partially observable environment, the feature vector may be a combination of the agent's action, observations, and predictions from the previous time step. The overall update u defines the answer network. The question network consists of a set of target functions, z i: O n, and condition i y functions, ci: A n [0, 1]n. We define zt = z i (ot+1, ~t+1 ) as the target for prediction i2 i i yt. Similarly, we define ct = c (at, yt ) as the condition at time t. The learning algorithm i for each component wtj of Wt can then be written i zi c yt ij i i wt+1 = wtj + t - yt i, (2) t i wt j where is a positive step-size parameter. Note that the targets here are functions of the observation and predictions exactly one time step later, and that the conditions are functions of a single primitive action. This is what makes this algorithm suitable only for learning about one-step TD relationships. By chaining together multiple nodes, Sutton and Tanner (2005) used it to predict k steps ahead, for various particular values of k, and to predict the outcome of specific action sequences (as in PSRs, e. g. , Littman et al. , 2002; Singh et al. , 2004). Now we consider the extension to temporally abstract actions. 3 Option-extended TD networks In this section we present our intra-option learning algorithm for TD networks with options and eligibility traces. As suggested earlier, each node's outgoing link in the question The quantity ~ is almost the same as y, and we encourage the reader to think of them as identical y here. The difference is that ~ is calculated by weights that are one step out of date as compared to y, y i. e. , ~t = u(yt-1, at-1, ot, Wt-1 ) (cf. equation 1). y 2 network will now correspond to an option applying over possibly many steps. The policy of the ith node's option corresponds to the condition function ci, which we think of as a recognizer for the option. It inspects each action taken to assess whether the option is being followed: ci = 1 if the agent is acting consistently with the option policy and ci = 0 othert t wise (intermediate values are also possible). When an agent ceases to act consistently with the option policy, we say that the option has diverged. The possibility of recognizing more than one action as consistent with the option is a significant generalization of the original idea of options. If no actions are recognized as acceptable in a state, then the option cannot be followed and thus cannot be initiated. Here we take the set of states with at least one recognized action to be the initiation set of the option. The option-termination function generalizes naturally to TD networks. Each node i is i given a corresponding termination function, i: O n [0, 1], where t = i (ot+1, yt ) i is the probability of terminating at time t. 3 t = 1 indicates that the option has terminated i at time t; t = 0 indicates that it has not, and intermediate values of correspond to soft i or stochastic termination conditions. If an option terminates, then zt acts as the target, but if the option is ongoing without termination, then the node's own next value, yt+1, should ~i be the target. The termination function specifies which of the two targets (or mixture of the two targets) is used to produce a form of TD error for each node i: i ii ii i t = t zt + (1 - t )yt+1 - yt. ~ (3) Our option-extended algorithm incorporates eligibility traces (see Sutton & Barto, 1998) as short-term memory variables organized in an n m matrix E, paralleling the weight matrix. The traces are a record of the effect that each weight could have had on each node's prediction during the time the agent has been acting consistently with the node's option. The components eij of the eligibility matrix are updated by, i yt ij ij i i (4) et = ct et-1 (1 - t ) + i wt j where 0 1 is the trace-decay parameter familiar from the TD() learning algorithm. Because of the ci factor, all of a node's traces will be immediately reset to zero whenever t the agent deviates from the node's option's policy. If the agent follows the policy and the option does not terminate, then the trace decays by and increments by the gradient in the way typical of eligibility traces. If the policy is followed and the option does terminate, then the trace will be reset to zero on the immediately following time step, and a new trace will start building. Finally, our algorithm updates the weights on each time step by ij i i wt+1 = wtj + t eij. t

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