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Amanda Coston

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5 papers

2 author rows

AIIM Journal 2024 Journal Article

Neural topic models with survival supervision: Jointly predicting time-to-event outcomes and learning how clinical features relate

George H. Chen
Linhong Li
Ren Zuo
Amanda Coston
Jeremy C. Weiss

We present a neural network framework for learning a survival model to predict a time-to-event outcome while simultaneously learning a topic model that reveals feature relationships. In particular, we model each subject as a distribution over “topics”, where a topic could, for instance, correspond to an age group, a disorder, or a disease. The presence of a topic in a subject means that specific clinical features are more likely to appear for the subject. Topics encode information about related features and are learned in a supervised manner to predict a time-to-event outcome. Our framework supports combining many different topic and survival models; training the resulting joint survival-topic model readily scales to large datasets using standard neural net optimizers with minibatch gradient descent. For example, a special case is to combine LDA with a Cox model, in which case a subject’s distribution over topics serves as the input feature vector to the Cox model. We explain how to address practical implementation issues that arise when applying these neural survival-supervised topic models to clinical data, including how to visualize results to assist clinical interpretation. We study the effectiveness of our proposed framework on seven clinical datasets on predicting time until death as well as hospital ICU length of stay, where we find that neural survival-supervised topic models achieve competitive accuracy with existing approaches while yielding interpretable clinical topics that explain feature relationships. Our code is available at: https: //github. com/georgehc/survival-topics

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Predictive Performance Comparison of Decision Policies Under Confounding

Luke Guerdan
Amanda Coston
Ken Holstein
Zhiwei Steven Wu

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing decision-making policy that is generally under-specified and dependent on unobservable factors. These sources of uncertainty are often addressed in practice by making strong assumptions about the data-generating mechanism. In this work, we propose a method to compare the predictive performance of decision policies under a variety of modern identification approaches from the causal inference and off-policy evaluation literatures (e. g. , instrumental variable, marginal sensitivity model, proximal variable). Key to our method is the insight that there are regions of uncertainty that we can safely ignore in the policy comparison. We develop a practical approach for finite-sample estimation of regret intervals under no assumptions on the parametric form of the status quo policy. We verify our framework theoretically and via synthetic data experiments. We conclude with a real-world application using our framework to support a pre-deployment evaluation of a proposed modification to a healthcare enrollment policy.

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ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Characterizing Fairness Over the Set of Good Models Under Selective Labels

Amanda Coston
Ashesh Rambachan
Alexandra Chouldechova

Algorithmic risk assessments are used to inform decisions in a wide variety of high-stakes settings. Often multiple predictive models deliver similar overall performance but differ markedly in their predictions for individual cases, an empirical phenomenon known as the “Rashomon Effect. ” These models may have different properties over various groups, and therefore have different predictive fairness properties. We develop a framework for characterizing predictive fairness properties over the set of models that deliver similar overall performance, or “the set of good models. ” Our framework addresses the empirically relevant challenge of selectively labelled data in the setting where the selection decision and outcome are unconfounded given the observed data features. Our framework can be used to 1) audit for predictive bias; or 2) replace an existing model with one that has better fairness properties. We illustrate these use cases on a recidivism prediction task and a real-world credit-scoring task.

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ICLR Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Conditional Learning of Fair Representations

Han Zhao 0002
Amanda Coston
Tameem Adel
Geoffrey J. Gordon

We propose a novel algorithm for learning fair representations that can simultaneously mitigate two notions of disparity among different demographic subgroups in the classification setting. Two key components underpinning the design of our algorithm are balanced error rate and conditional alignment of representations. We show how these two components contribute to ensuring accuracy parity and equalized false-positive and false-negative rates across groups without impacting demographic parity. Furthermore, we also demonstrate both in theory and on two real-world experiments that the proposed algorithm leads to a better utility-fairness trade-off on balanced datasets compared with existing algorithms on learning fair representations for classification.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Counterfactual Predictions under Runtime Confounding

Amanda Coston
Edward Kennedy
Alexandra Chouldechova

Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting likelihood of default if a loan is approved. Generally, to learn such counterfactual prediction models from observational data on historical decisions and corresponding outcomes, one must measure all factors that jointly affect the outcome and the decision taken. Motivated by decision support applications, we study the counterfactual prediction task in the setting where all relevant factors are captured in the historical data, but it is infeasible, undesirable, or impermissible to use some such factors in the prediction model. We refer to this setting as runtime confounding. We propose a doubly-robust procedure for learning counterfactual prediction models in this setting. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results suggest that our method often outperforms competing approaches. We also present a validation procedure for evaluating the performance of counterfactual prediction methods.

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